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2024 Masters Breakdown #8 — A Slight Change To The Predictions

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Current Champion

Matthew Riggle, career statistics:
47 correct, 6 incorrect
1/1 on rebound attempts (on 4 rebound opportunities)
41.23% in first on buzzer (47/114)
3/3 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $7,600)
1/2 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $21,300

To win:
3 games: 68.027%
4: 46.277%
5: 31.481%
6: 21.415%
7: 14.568%
Avg. streak: 4.128 games.
(Next game: September 14)
(Click Here for Methodology)

Upcoming Encore Presentations

August 12: S42 E98 (January 21, 2026)
August 13: S42 E99 (January 22, 2026)
August 14: S42 E100 (January 23, 2026)
August 15-16: S41 E141 (March 24, 2025)
August 17: S42 E101 (January 26, 2026)
August 18: S42 E105 (January 30, 2026)
August 19: S42 E102 (January 27, 2026)
August 20: S42 E103 (January 28, 2026)
August 21: S42 E104 (January 29, 2026)
August 22-23: S41 E142 (March 25, 2025)
August 24: S42 E106 (February 2, 2026)
August 25: S42 E107 (February 3, 2026)
August 26: S42 E108 (February 4, 2026)
August 27: S42 E109 (February 5, 2026)
August 28: S42 E110 (February 6, 2026)
August 29-30: S41 E143 (March 26, 2025)
(Source: Bell Fibe TV program guide)

All Time Winnings

All Time Jeopardy! Winnings, Regular Play Only:

1. Ken Jennings $2,520,700
2. James Holzhauer $2,462,216
3. Matt Amodio $1,518,601
4. Amy Schneider $1,382,800
5. Jamie Ding $882,605
6. Cris Pannullo $748,286
7. Mattea Roach $560,983
8. Jason Zuffranieri $532,496
9. Scott Riccardi $455,000
10. David Madden $430,400
11. Julia Collins $428,100
12. Matt Jackson $411,612
13. Austin Rogers $411,000
14. Ray Lalonde $386,400
15. Harrison Whitaker $373,999
16. Adriana Harmeyer $349,600
17. Caleb Groen $346,968
18. Adam Remsen $306,415
19. Ryan Long $299,400
20. Arthur Chu $297,200

All Time Jeopardy! Winnings, Including Tournaments (and Consolation Prizes):

1. Brad Rutter $4,968,436
2. Ken Jennings $4,372,700
3. James Holzhauer $3,614,216
4. Matt Amodio $1,964,601
5. Amy Schneider $1,864,800
6. Yogesh Raut $1,098,403
7. Mattea Roach $897,983
8. Jamie Ding $885,605
9. David Madden $785,733
10. Victoria Groce $773,801
11. Cris Pannullo $754,286
12. Roger Craig $706,200
13. Larissa Kelly $671,930
14. Matt Jackson $623,612
15. Jason Zuffranieri $549,496
16. Andrew He $534,365
17. Scott Riccardi $533,000
18. Jerome Vered $499,102
19. Julia Collins $495,767
20. Austin Rogers $493,000
21. Ben Ingram $449,201
22. Paolo Pasco $448,717
23. Adriana Harmeyer $446,600
24. Buzzy Cohen $441,603
25. Juveria Zaheer $441,000

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Welcome to Masters Breakdown #8 — we’re now through two rounds and have just one episode to go!

Victoria’s Final Jeopardy Bet In The Opener

Last night’s Final Jeopardy situation in the opening game—where Victoria was just above 50% of James’s score–was complicated by the match point situation at the time.

Going into the game, Yogesh was leading on 4 match points, Victoria had 3, James had 1, and Amy had 0—and the game scores were James 21,400 Victoria 10,800 Amy 1,200. With 3 match points available for first and 1 for second:

James’s minimum cover bet was $201. Had he done that, and was incorrect, he would fall to 21,199. In order to possibly catch James, then, Victoria would need to bet 10,400. However, that would have put her runaway over Amy at risk. Normally, with the difference between second and third being $1,000, this would be a necessary risk to take—because the reward is usually upwards of $20,000. However, the difference between second and third for Victoria would be potentially risking a spot in the finals if she falls to third—even though a win over James would have forced James to win the last game to guarantee advancement.

In my opinion, the reward of potentially winning the game for Victoria did not justify dropping to third—making her 0-point bet last night the best play.


(Content continues below)

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Are you going on the show and looking for information about how to bet in Final Jeopardy? Check out my Betting Strategy 101 page. If you want to learn how to bet in two-day finals, check out Betting Strategy 102. In case the show uses a tournament with wild cards in the future, there is also a strategy page for betting in tournament quarterfinals.

Are you looking for information on how to stream Jeopardy! in 2026? Find out information here on how to stream from most places in North America!

You can find game-by-game stats here at The Jeopardy! Fan of all 23 players, including Caleb Groen, Adam Remsen, Tristan Williams and Jamie Ding, that have won 10 or more games on Jeopardy!

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Who Is The #4-Ranked Current Jeopardy Player?

I would say that, right now, it is Amy Schneider. Not only has she finished 4th in Masters, she’s a Tournament of Champions winner, someone who finished 2nd to Victoria in JIT, and holds the 2nd-longest winning streak in Jeopardy! history. If you put all of that together, I would say that it is impossible for anyone to put together a better Jeopardy resume.

And yes, that does mean that we are going to see more Amy on our television screens in the future. Besides, if James happened to finish fourth instead of Amy, and James didn’t win next year’s JIT, are you seriously trying to tell me that he wouldn’t be Producer’s Pick?

A Change In The Prediction Model

Matt Carberry asked me last night if I would consider any changes to the prediction model based on the semifinals, which had given Amy a better chance of advancing over Yogesh—based largely on Amy’s past regular-play performance.

The answer to that question is: I had planned on introducing this change anyway post-Masters, but I have instead decided to expedite this change before the Finals.

While the current version of the prediction model does give higher weight to recent performances, one thing that the prediction model hadn’t taken into account was “strength of opposition”. For example, due to playing less regular play, Victoria and Yogesh have put their stats up against opposition that is significantly stronger than regular play. Thus, the prediction model now takes strength of opposition into account.

Having re-run the update prediction model from the end of Game 6 with the new data, it gave the following numbers:
James: To win, 32%; to make finals: 80%
Victoria: To win, 29%; to make finals, 77.4%
Yogesh: To win, 20.5%; to make finals, 73.2%
Amy: To win, 18.5%; to make finals, 69.4%

I would say that those are more realistic numbers.

Additionally, the prediction model now gives the following finals prediction:
James: 39.24% to win, 29.28% to finish second, 31.48% to finish third
Victoria: 34.91% to win, 32.54% to finish second, 32.54% to finish third
Yogesh: 25.85% to win, 38.18% to finish second, 35.97% to finish third.

(Editor’s Note: I should also mention that while I do still believe that it is a good idea to account for opponent strength in the prediction model, the prediction model generally assumes that a player is playing at 100% of their capability. It clearly had no way of knowing that Amy was decidedly not feeling 100% for the Masters semifinals, as she admitted on X.)


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Do You Have Praise Or Hate For The Format? Blame ABC.

There has been some discourse in some corners of the Internet regarding the format of Masters, and how there’s a 1-game final.

This is your reminder that a 1-game final was not Jeopardy!‘s vision for this event; Masters was supposed to be a straight round-robin with all combinations of the 6 players, and that it was ABC who requested a semifinal and a final with points resetting—presumably to increase the drama.

Thus, it is clear that any praise—or hate—for the format needs to go to ABC, not Jeopardy—and anyone using this format as a cudgel to attack Jeopardy is doing so because they likely have an axe to grind against the show itself.

In any case, I am personally looking forward to Wednesday’s final; I have a feeling it’s going to be great!



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