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Making Jeopardy! Predictions: A Methodology

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Current Champion

Matthew Riggle, career statistics:
47 correct, 6 incorrect
1/1 on rebound attempts (on 4 rebound opportunities)
41.23% in first on buzzer (47/114)
3/3 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $7,600)
1/2 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $21,300

To win:
3 games: 68.027%
4: 46.277%
5: 31.481%
6: 21.415%
7: 14.568%
Avg. streak: 4.128 games.
(Next game: September 14)
(Click Here for Methodology)

Upcoming Encore Presentations

August 12: S42 E98 (January 21, 2026)
August 13: S42 E99 (January 22, 2026)
August 14: S42 E100 (January 23, 2026)
August 15-16: S41 E141 (March 24, 2025)
August 17: S42 E101 (January 26, 2026)
August 18: S42 E105 (January 30, 2026)
August 19: S42 E102 (January 27, 2026)
August 20: S42 E103 (January 28, 2026)
August 21: S42 E104 (January 29, 2026)
August 22-23: S41 E142 (March 25, 2025)
August 24: S42 E106 (February 2, 2026)
August 25: S42 E107 (February 3, 2026)
August 26: S42 E108 (February 4, 2026)
August 27: S42 E109 (February 5, 2026)
August 28: S42 E110 (February 6, 2026)
August 29-30: S41 E143 (March 26, 2025)
(Source: Bell Fibe TV program guide)

All Time Winnings

All Time Jeopardy! Winnings, Regular Play Only:

1. Ken Jennings $2,520,700
2. James Holzhauer $2,462,216
3. Matt Amodio $1,518,601
4. Amy Schneider $1,382,800
5. Jamie Ding $882,605
6. Cris Pannullo $748,286
7. Mattea Roach $560,983
8. Jason Zuffranieri $532,496
9. Scott Riccardi $455,000
10. David Madden $430,400
11. Julia Collins $428,100
12. Matt Jackson $411,612
13. Austin Rogers $411,000
14. Ray Lalonde $386,400
15. Harrison Whitaker $373,999
16. Adriana Harmeyer $349,600
17. Caleb Groen $346,968
18. Adam Remsen $306,415
19. Ryan Long $299,400
20. Arthur Chu $297,200

All Time Jeopardy! Winnings, Including Tournaments (and Consolation Prizes):

1. Brad Rutter $4,968,436
2. Ken Jennings $4,372,700
3. James Holzhauer $3,614,216
4. Matt Amodio $1,964,601
5. Amy Schneider $1,864,800
6. Yogesh Raut $1,098,403
7. Mattea Roach $897,983
8. Jamie Ding $885,605
9. David Madden $785,733
10. Victoria Groce $773,801
11. Cris Pannullo $754,286
12. Roger Craig $706,200
13. Larissa Kelly $671,930
14. Matt Jackson $623,612
15. Jason Zuffranieri $549,496
16. Andrew He $534,365
17. Scott Riccardi $533,000
18. Jerome Vered $499,102
19. Julia Collins $495,767
20. Austin Rogers $493,000
21. Ben Ingram $449,201
22. Paolo Pasco $448,717
23. Adriana Harmeyer $446,600
24. Buzzy Cohen $441,603
25. Juveria Zaheer $441,000

DISCLAIMER

The Jeopardy! Fan is created by fans, for fans. The Jeopardy! game show and all elements thereof, including but not limited to copyright and trademark thereto, are the property of Jeopardy Productions, Inc. and are protected under law. This website is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or operated by Jeopardy Productions, Inc.

Note: This methodology has been updated.

So, you’ve probably seen recently – either here on the sidebar, or on Twitter – my quoting the chances a player has of winning a certain number of games on the show.

As a note: this article will rely heavily on discussion of a Coryat score. Here’s the definition, via J! Archive:

n. a player’s score if all wagering is disregarded. In the Coryat score, there is no penalty for forced incorrect responses on Daily Doubles, but correct responses on Daily Doubles earn only the natural values of the clues, and any gain or loss from the Final Jeopardy! Round is ignored.

In other words: give a player credit (or neg) for the clue value of any clue they get correct (or incorrect). Negs on Daily Doubles don’t count as they are considered a “forced guess”. Coryat scoring tracks “unforced errors”, not “forced ones”.

This project started out when I asked myself “I wonder what someone’s chances of winning a game was, given their specific Coryat score?”

For this, I took a look at every single regular-play game in J! Archive from October 4, 2004 through to March 30, 2016 – a period of over 2,000 games. I then sorted each game’s Coryat scores into “winning” and “non-winning” and took the winning percentage at each level.

Why October 4, 2004? For the beginning of Season 21’s tapings, Jeopardy! realized that their challengers might not be getting enough rehearsal time on the buzzer; Ken Jennings’ streak made this very apparent. October 4, 2004 was the first episode of the “extra rehearsal time”.


The below graph has the plot of Coryat vs winning percentage, along with the trend line that fits the data.

Winning percentages for each Coryat score in regular play games

Figure 1: Winning percentages for each Coryat score in regular play games from October 4, 2004 – March 30, 2016

That trend line thus gives us a corresponding win percentage for each Coryat score.

To account for certain improbable occurrences that have yet to actually happen, any Coryat lower than $3,200 is assigned a 1% chance of winning, and a Coryat higher than $28,000 is assigned a 99% chance of winning.)

I’ll be updating my data and making small adjustments to the trend line about four times a season.

To run my simulations, I have a Python script to generate 1,000,000 normally distributed Coryats (given the mean and standard deviation of the player’s Coryats thus far) and from there, generate the mean winning percentage to determine both the player’s chances of winning their next game as well as a predicted length of their streak (in this case, r / (1 – r), where r is a player’s chances of winning one game).

For runs that have yet to reach 5 games, I will be adding an extra game, with the mean Coryat, into the calculation, to account for the possible case that a player had an outlying performance.

  • Have My husband tape it for me ,so I can watch when I get home. Its a pleasure, seeing Buzzy Win

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