features

General

Making Jeopardy! Predictions: An Updated Methodology

Published Modified

Join TJF Plus

Get free access to all of our articles. Register a free account for TJF Plus.

Current Champion

Jennifer Leavey, career statistics:
15 correct, 5 incorrect
2/2 on rebound attempts (on 6 rebound opportunities)
28.07% in first on buzzer (16/57)
1/1 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $2,000)
1/1 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $9,600

To win:
2 games: 46.897%
3: 21.993%
4: 10.314%
5: 4.837%
6: 2.268%
Avg. streak: 1.883 games.
(Click Here for Methodology)

Upcoming Encore Presentations

September 26-27: S42 E174 (May 7, 2026)
October 3-4: S42 E175 (May 8, 2026)
(Source: Bell Fibe TV program guide)

All Time Winnings

All Time Jeopardy! Winnings, Regular Play Only:

1. Ken Jennings $2,520,700
2. James Holzhauer $2,462,216
3. Matt Amodio $1,518,601
4. Amy Schneider $1,382,800
5. Jamie Ding $882,605
6. Cris Pannullo $748,286
7. Mattea Roach $560,983
8. Jason Zuffranieri $532,496
9. Scott Riccardi $455,000
10. David Madden $430,400
11. Julia Collins $428,100
12. Matt Jackson $411,612
13. Austin Rogers $411,000
14. Ray Lalonde $386,400
15. Harrison Whitaker $373,999
16. Adriana Harmeyer $349,600
17. Caleb Groen $346,968
18. Adam Remsen $306,415
19. Ryan Long $299,400
20. Arthur Chu $297,200

All Time Jeopardy! Winnings, Including Tournaments (and Consolation Prizes):

1. Brad Rutter $4,968,436
2. Ken Jennings $4,372,700
3. James Holzhauer $3,614,216
4. Matt Amodio $1,964,601
5. Amy Schneider $1,864,800
6. Yogesh Raut $1,598,403
7. Victoria Groce $1,023,801
8. Mattea Roach $897,983
9. Jamie Ding $885,605
10. David Madden $785,733
11. Cris Pannullo $754,286
12. Roger Craig $706,200
13. Andrew He $684,365
14. Larissa Kelly $671,930
15. Matt Jackson $623,612
16. Jason Zuffranieri $549,496
17. Paolo Pasco $548,717
18. Scott Riccardi $533,000
19. Jerome Vered $499,102
20. Julia Collins $495,767
21. Austin Rogers $493,000
22. Juveria Zaheer $491,000
23. Ben Ingram $449,201
24. Adriana Harmeyer $446,600
25. Buzzy Cohen $441,603

It’s time for a change.

Since 2016, I have been predicting how long Jeopardy! champion’s runs will last, using a Coryat score and its correlation between that and winning percentage.

However, the play styles of Austin Rogers and James Holzhauer have caused me to update and revisit the model. For one, Austin had a slightly-above-average Coryat, but he was able to harness Daily Doubles to larger scores going into Final Jeopardy! than would otherwise be predicted by the model. Thus, I have created Version 2, which takes into account score going into Final Jeopardy as opposed to Coryat score:

Figure 1: The correlation between pre-Final Jeopardy! score and win percentage (October 4, 2004 – April 19, 2019.)
Figure 1: The correlation between pre-Final Jeopardy! score and win percentage (October 4, 2004 – April 19, 2019.)

As with Version 1, the trend line (now a logistic sigmoid curve) corresponds to a percentage chance of winning the game.

As with Version 1, to run my simulations, I will still use a Python script to generate 1,000,000 normally distributed scores (given the mean and standard deviation of the player’s scores going into Final Jeopardy thus far) and from there, generate the mean winning percentage to determine both the player’s chances of winning their next game as well as a predicted length of their streak (in this case, r / (1 – r), where r is a player’s chances of winning one game).

For runs that have yet to reach 11 games, the model will adjust the standard deviation when generating scores. A 1-game champion will use the standard deviation of a player score ($6,509); A 2-game champion will use a weighted average of 10% their standard deviation and 90% the population standard deviation (the $6,509), and so on through to the 11th game.

Hopefully this update to the model will allow for even better accuracy going forward, especially when it comes to outlying data. The new model will be used starting with the April 22, 2019 game.


Add The Jeopardy! Fan to your preferred sources on Google by clicking the button below!

The new TJ!F Plus section is active! In order to get the Daily Details of each episode coming soon, as well as the ability to comment on posts site-wide, make sure to register for your account!

Did you accidentally get logged out of your TJ!F Plus account? Log in here!

Become a Supporter now! Make a monthly contribution to the site on Patreon!

Contestant photo credit: jeopardy.com

When commenting, please note that all comments on The Jeopardy! Fan must be in compliance with the Site Comment Policy.

If you are going to quote any information from this page or this website, attribution is required.

Have you had a chance to listen to our podcast game show, Complete The List, yet? Check it out! It's also available on Apple Podcasts.

Since Alex Trebek’s diagnosis of stage 4 pancreatic cancer, many community members have been raising money. The Jeopardy! Fan Online Store is as well! All proceeds from any “Keep The Faith And We’ll Win” shirt sold will be donated to Alex Trebek’s preferred charity. (The de facto alumni association is currently inquiring with the show in order to determine Alex Trebek’s preferred charity; this will be updated when that has been determined. To date, over $250 has been raised.)

In order to redesign our merchandise area to serve you better in 2026, all merchandise sales have been temporarily taken offline. Look for a return in late 2026! All previous orders will still be supported.

Powered by Labrador CMS