features

General

Making Jeopardy! Predictions: A Methodology

Published Modified

Join TJF Plus

Get free access to all of our articles. Register a free account for TJF Plus.

Current Champion

Matthew Riggle, career statistics:
47 correct, 6 incorrect
1/1 on rebound attempts (on 4 rebound opportunities)
41.23% in first on buzzer (47/114)
3/3 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $7,600)
1/2 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $21,300

To win:
3 games: 68.027%
4: 46.277%
5: 31.481%
6: 21.415%
7: 14.568%
Avg. streak: 4.128 games.
(Next game: September 14)
(Click Here for Methodology)

Jeopardy! Masters Standings

(Semifinal Final Standings)

1) Victoria Groce, 7 points, 2 wins, 81 correct responses, $60,000 Coryat Score, $65,800 earned before Final Jeopardy
2) Andrew He, 6 points, 2 wins, 51 correct responses, $33,200 Coryat Score, $34,600 earned before Final Jeopardy
3) Yogesh Raut, 2 points, 0 wins, 48 correct responses, $31,200 Coryat Score, $25,200 earned before Final Jeopardy
4) Paolo Pasco, 1 point, 0 wins, 33 correct responses, $23,600 Coryat Score, $29,200 earned before Final Jeopardy

(Quarterfinal Final Standings)

1) Victoria Groce, 15 points, 5 wins, 172 correct responses, $126,000 Coryat Score, $121,000 earned before Final Jeopardy
2) Yogesh Raut, 12 points, 3 wins, 106 correct responses, $69,000 Coryat Score, $69,800 earned before Final Jeopardy
3) Paolo Pasco, 8 points, 1 win, 94 correct responses, $62,400 Coryat Score, $71,400 earned before Final Jeopardy
4) Andrew He, 5 points, 1 win, 89 correct responses, $53,000 Coryat Score, $50,400 earned before Final Jeopardy
5) Long Nguyen, 5 points, 1 win, 68 correct responses, $40,200 Coryat Score, $45,200 earned before Final Jeopardy
6) Juveria Zaheer, 3 points, 1 win, 86 correct responses, $60,600 Coryat Score, $68,400 earned before Final Jeopardy

Upcoming Encore Presentations

September 5-6: S41 E144 (March 27, 2025)
September 7: S42 E116 (February 16, 2026)
September 8: S42 E117 (February 17, 2026)
September 9: S42 E118 (February 18, 2026)
September 10: S42 E119 (February 19, 2026)
September 11: S42 E120 (February 20, 2026)
September 12-13: S41 E145 (March 28, 2025)
September 19-20: S42 E173 (May 6, 2026)
(Source: Bell Fibe TV program guide)

All Time Winnings

All Time Jeopardy! Winnings, Regular Play Only:

1. Ken Jennings $2,520,700
2. James Holzhauer $2,462,216
3. Matt Amodio $1,518,601
4. Amy Schneider $1,382,800
5. Jamie Ding $882,605
6. Cris Pannullo $748,286
7. Mattea Roach $560,983
8. Jason Zuffranieri $532,496
9. Scott Riccardi $455,000
10. David Madden $430,400
11. Julia Collins $428,100
12. Matt Jackson $411,612
13. Austin Rogers $411,000
14. Ray Lalonde $386,400
15. Harrison Whitaker $373,999
16. Adriana Harmeyer $349,600
17. Caleb Groen $346,968
18. Adam Remsen $306,415
19. Ryan Long $299,400
20. Arthur Chu $297,200

All Time Jeopardy! Winnings, Including Tournaments (and Consolation Prizes):

1. Brad Rutter $4,968,436
2. Ken Jennings $4,372,700
3. James Holzhauer $3,614,216
4. Matt Amodio $1,964,601
5. Amy Schneider $1,864,800
6. Yogesh Raut $1,098,403
7. Mattea Roach $897,983
8. Jamie Ding $885,605
9. David Madden $785,733
10. Victoria Groce $773,801
11. Cris Pannullo $754,286
12. Roger Craig $706,200
13. Larissa Kelly $671,930
14. Matt Jackson $623,612
15. Jason Zuffranieri $549,496
16. Paolo Pasco $548,717
17. Andrew He $534,365
18. Scott Riccardi $533,000
19. Jerome Vered $499,102
20. Julia Collins $495,767
21. Austin Rogers $493,000
22. Juveria Zaheer $491,000
23. Ben Ingram $449,201
24. Adriana Harmeyer $446,600
25. Buzzy Cohen $441,603

Note: This methodology has been updated.

So, you’ve probably seen recently – either here on the sidebar, or on Twitter – my quoting the chances a player has of winning a certain number of games on the show.

As a note: this article will rely heavily on discussion of a Coryat score. Here’s the definition, via J! Archive:

n. a player’s score if all wagering is disregarded. In the Coryat score, there is no penalty for forced incorrect responses on Daily Doubles, but correct responses on Daily Doubles earn only the natural values of the clues, and any gain or loss from the Final Jeopardy! Round is ignored.

In other words: give a player credit (or neg) for the clue value of any clue they get correct (or incorrect). Negs on Daily Doubles don’t count as they are considered a “forced guess”. Coryat scoring tracks “unforced errors”, not “forced ones”.

This project started out when I asked myself “I wonder what someone’s chances of winning a game was, given their specific Coryat score?”

For this, I took a look at every single regular-play game in J! Archive from October 4, 2004 through to March 30, 2016 – a period of over 2,000 games. I then sorted each game’s Coryat scores into “winning” and “non-winning” and took the winning percentage at each level.

Why October 4, 2004? For the beginning of Season 21’s tapings, Jeopardy! realized that their challengers might not be getting enough rehearsal time on the buzzer; Ken Jennings’ streak made this very apparent. October 4, 2004 was the first episode of the “extra rehearsal time”.


The below graph has the plot of Coryat vs winning percentage, along with the trend line that fits the data.

Winning percentages for each Coryat score in regular play games

Figure 1: Winning percentages for each Coryat score in regular play games from October 4, 2004 – March 30, 2016

That trend line thus gives us a corresponding win percentage for each Coryat score.

To account for certain improbable occurrences that have yet to actually happen, any Coryat lower than $3,200 is assigned a 1% chance of winning, and a Coryat higher than $28,000 is assigned a 99% chance of winning.)

I’ll be updating my data and making small adjustments to the trend line about four times a season.

To run my simulations, I have a Python script to generate 1,000,000 normally distributed Coryats (given the mean and standard deviation of the player’s Coryats thus far) and from there, generate the mean winning percentage to determine both the player’s chances of winning their next game as well as a predicted length of their streak (in this case, r / (1 – r), where r is a player’s chances of winning one game).

For runs that have yet to reach 5 games, I will be adding an extra game, with the mean Coryat, into the calculation, to account for the possible case that a player had an outlying performance.

  • Have My husband tape it for me ,so I can watch when I get home. Its a pleasure, seeing Buzzy Win

  • Powered by Labrador CMS