2021 Tournament of Champions Finals Predictions

We’re now down to 3, it’s time for the finals of the 29th Tournament of Champions. The prediction model has been re-run 100,000 times, and it has come up with the predictions below:

Thursday and Friday:

Veronica Vichit-Vadakan on Jeopardy!
Veronica Vichit-Vadakan:
1st: 18.477% of the time.
2nd: 35.246% of the time.
3rd: 46.277% of the time.
137 correct, 15 incorrect
8/12 on rebound attempts (on 36 rebound opportunities)
32.31% in first on buzzer (126/390)
5/7 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $8,200)
5/7 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $14,914

Jennifer Quail on Jeopardy!
Jennifer Quail:
1st: 44.737% of the time.
2nd: 42.507% of the time.
3rd: 12.756% of the time.
298 correct, 30 incorrect
19/23 on rebound attempts (on 49 rebound opportunities)
44.91% in first on buzzer (278/619)
16/16 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $32,100)
10/11 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $20,564

Sam Kavanaugh on Jeopardy!
Sam Kavanaugh:
1st: 36.786% of the time.
2nd: 22.247% of the time.
3rd: 40.967% of the time.
162 correct, 14 incorrect
4/5 on rebound attempts (on 26 rebound opportunities)
33.33% in first on buzzer (150/450)
12/13 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $70,800)
6/8 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $15,225

Andy’s Thoughts: Sam Kavanaugh is probably the most underrated player of Daily Doubles in the history of the show (I would probably put him at least in the Top 10 all-time, if not Top 5); this has propelled him squarely into the finals of a Tournament of Champions. His opponents this time out are Jennifer and Veronica in the first two-woman final since 1993. All three are very deserving finalists and have showed skill in all facets of the game. The prediction model has Jennifer as a slight favorite, but this final will very likely be won by whomever makes the most on Daily Doubles and Final Jeopardy! Day 1 (essentially a Daily Double that all three players can play at the same time).

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3 Comments on "2021 Tournament of Champions Finals Predictions"

  1. Do you make adjustments to the prediction models for the 2-day final? I’m just curious because it’s so much different than basically every other 1-off game, betting aggression/strategy becomes an even bigger deal

    • Betting aggression is a two-way street, though. It’s just as easy to get knocked down by a tough Daily Double or Final Jeopardy as it is to be boosted up by them. The prediction model for a final does run for two “games”, though, to take the 2-game final into account.

  2. Totally agree! Sam has been the best at maximizing DD’s since the DD GOAT James, netting $70,800 in converting 12 of 13 DD’s; though Jennifer has been the most historically accurate at DD’s to date, going 16 of 16, she’s netted less than half ($32,100) of Sam. But will these trends continue?

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