31st Tournament of Champions: Quarter-Final Preview

It’s time for the tournament everyone has been waiting months for: the 31st Tournament of Champions! It’s the largest Tournament of Champions of all time, with 27 players taking part. In addition to the usual $250,000 top prize, there’s a further incentive to winning this event: a spot in Season 2 of Jeopardy! Masters.

As with previous previews, each player has been given a seed between 1 and 27 based on wins and money won, with any auto-bids seeded in chronological order of qualification in between the 4- and 5-time champions. Odds are also given (in American odds style); these odds have been recalculated since the pre-taping preview, taking into account the results of the last Champions Wildcard and these pairings.

Friday, February 23, 2024:

Emily Sands (13) +2100
Chanhassen, Minnesota
Emily Sands on Jeopardy!
182 correct, 27 incorrect
8/13 on rebound attempts (on 31 rebound opportunities)
38.27% in first on buzzer (173/452)
12/15 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $38,400)
6/8 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $15,275
Suresh Krishnan (7) +11000
Suwanee, Georgia
Suresh Krishnan on Jeopardy!
116 correct, 21 incorrect
12/16 on rebound attempts (on 42 rebound opportunities)
27.41% in first on buzzer (108/394)
4/6 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $10,195)
5/7 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $9,943
Matthew Marcus (18) +2500
Portland, Oregon
Matthew Marcus on Jeopardy!
123 correct, 12 incorrect
5/6 on rebound attempts (on 17 rebound opportunities)
41.70% in first on buzzer (118/283)
3/6 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $4,000)
4/5 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $21,240

Overall Thoughts: I think that Emily might be underrated in the eyes of many, but she’s not at all afraid to make aggressive bets on the Daily Doubles. The prediction model is a big fan of that, and that in of itself makes her the favorite in the opening quarterfinal.

Chances of winning this game: Emily Sands: 39.066%, Suresh Krishnan: 23.336%, Matthew Marcus: 37.598%.

Monday, February 26, 2024:

Cris Pannullo (1) +650
Ocean City, New Jersey
Cris Pannullo on Jeopardy!
664 correct, 50 incorrect
35/38 on rebound attempts (on 88 rebound opportunities)
48.32% in first on buzzer (604/1250)
45/50 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $168,600)
14/22 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $25,036
Ben Goldstein (9) +19000
Dexter, Michigan
Ben Goldstein on Jeopardy!
118 correct, 20 incorrect
2/3 on rebound attempts (on 32 rebound opportunities)
36.36% in first on buzzer (124/341)
2/5 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$3,600)
1/6 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $13,000
Jared Watson (26) +6100
Greenville, Texas
Jared Watson on Jeopardy!
101 correct, 16 incorrect
7/10 on rebound attempts (on 27 rebound opportunities)
40.97% in first on buzzer (93/227)
5/10 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$4,000)
2/4 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $18,700

Overall Thoughts: While Cris Pannullo, as the #1 seed, does have a target on his back by virtue of that, I do think he’ll take victory in this one. However, Ben Goldstein has made a habit of outplaying my prediction models, and I’m sure he would absolutely love to do it again.

Chances of winning this game: Cris Pannullo: 54.072%, Ben Goldstein: 19.422%, Jared Watson: 26.506%.

Tuesday, February 27, 2024:

Hannah Wilson (4) +1400
Chicago, Illinois
Hannah Wilson on Jeopardy!
236 correct, 21 incorrect
12/16 on rebound attempts (on 38 rebound opportunities)
42.50% in first on buzzer (218/513)
12/14 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $39,300)
7/9 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $19,489
David Sibley (19) +7100
Walla Walla, Washington
David Sibley on Jeopardy!
111 correct, 20 incorrect
11/12 on rebound attempts (on 24 rebound opportunities)
37.81% in first on buzzer (107/283)
7/7 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $18,300)
2/5 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $15,200
Yungsheng Wang (15) +2600
Lafeyette, Louisiana
Yungsheng Wang on Jeopardy!
165 correct, 26 incorrect
7/9 on rebound attempts (on 28 rebound opportunities)
36.62% in first on buzzer (167/456)
7/7 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $31,899)
6/8 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $16,075

Overall Thoughts: The prediction model is only given past data. It has no way of knowing that David Sibley has a distinct possibility of being “most improved” in this tournament—which means that I think this quarterfinal has the possibility of being a very closely-contested three-way battle that will only be decided by who does best overall on the game’s four betting clues.

Chances of winning this game: Hannah Wilson: 41.168%, David Sibley: 24.805%, Yungsheng Wang: 34.027%.



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Wednesday, February 28, 2024:

Nick Cascone (14) +6300
Queens, New York
Nick Cascone on Jeopardy!
125 correct, 17 incorrect
6/7 on rebound attempts (on 24 rebound opportunities)
34.50% in first on buzzer (118/342)
6/11 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $10,200)
3/6 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $16,200
Jake DeArruda (23) +2600
Ludlow, Vermont
Jake DeArruda on Jeopardy!
97 correct, 18 incorrect
3/6 on rebound attempts (on 19 rebound opportunities)
42.98% in first on buzzer (98/228)
7/7 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $30,800)
0/4 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $19,050
Yogesh Raut (20) +1300
Vancouver, Washington
Yogesh Raut on Jeopardy!
107 correct, 9 incorrect
7/8 on rebound attempts (on 13 rebound opportunities)
43.42% in first on buzzer (99/228)
5/5 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $20,200)
3/4 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $21,750

Overall Thoughts: Most people would see this matchup and think that Yogesh will take this one going away. However, Jake DeArruda has a couple of things going for him: he’s 100% able to win against a trivia great (he ended Troy Meyer’s run), and there has to be some regression to the mean coming in terms of Final Jeopardy. I’m guessing he’s going to need Final to break in his direction, but stranger things have happened. Nick may need to do better than 50/50 on the Daily Doubles, though, to have a chance—the prediction model isn’t a fan of his being 6-for-11 on them.

Chances of winning this game: Nick Cascone: 24.990%, Jake DeArruda: 33.570%, Yogesh Raut: 41.440%.

Thursday, February 29, 2024:

Luigi de Guzman (8) +1300
Arlington, Virginia
Luigi de Guzman on Jeopardy!
165 correct, 22 incorrect
9/12 on rebound attempts (on 26 rebound opportunities)
46.75% in first on buzzer (158/338)
9/11 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $25,800)
5/6 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $21,200
Kevin Belle (27) +19000
Silver Spring, Maryland
Kevin Belle on Jeopardy!
74 correct, 7 incorrect
3/4 on rebound attempts (on 20 rebound opportunities)
30.70% in first on buzzer (70/228)
2/4 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $800)
1/4 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $12,500
Juveria Zaheer (16) +1200
Whitby, Ontario, Canada
Juveria Zaheer on Jeopardy!
199 correct, 32 incorrect
7/8 on rebound attempts (on 22 rebound opportunities)
44.30% in first on buzzer (202/456)
11/13 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $77,600)
4/8 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $18,425

Overall Thoughts: I am expecting to see a barn-burner in this Leap Day game. In fact, it would not surprise me if we saw a repeat of the Kat Jepson-Long Nguyen battle from the most recent Champions Wildcard. Poor Kevin Belle, getting this draw!

Chances of winning this game: Luigi de Guzman: 40.269%, Kevin Belle: 17.896%, Juveria Zaheer: 41.835%.

Friday, March 1, 2024:

Stephen Webb (5) +4900
Longmont, Colorado
Stephen Webb on Jeopardy!
215 correct, 32 incorrect
12/13 on rebound attempts (on 34 rebound opportunities)
42.88% in first on buzzer (220/513)
5/5 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $20,200)
3/9 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $18,689
Brian Henegar (24) +3100
LaFollette, Tennessee
Brian Henegar on Jeopardy!
114 correct, 20 incorrect
5/6 on rebound attempts (on 15 rebound opportunities)
51.77% in first on buzzer (117/226)
5/7 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $7,200)
1/4 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $20,250
Josh Saak (12) +2800
Boise, Idaho
Josh Saak on Jeopardy!
170 correct, 26 incorrect
5/8 on rebound attempts (on 25 rebound opportunities)
37.80% in first on buzzer (172/455)
7/8 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $26,800)
6/8 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $16,925

Overall Thoughts: Stephen being unable to find Daily Doubles in the latter part of his run proved to be a point of comedy last March; unfortunately, that also means that the prediction model is penalizing him a bit. If he can find them, though, he might advance. That being said: the only player that Josh Saak has ever lost a game to at this point is in the Jeopardy! Masters field—and Josh was only $400 behind Matt Amodio going into Final Jeopardy. Brian may need a break in Final Jeopardy after the draw he got.

Chances of winning this game: Stephen Webb: 29.896%, Brian Henegar: 34.685%, Josh Saak: 35.419%. 



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Monday, March 4, 2024:

Ray Lalonde (2) +1600
Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Ray Lalonde on Jeopardy!
354 correct, 43 incorrect
25/28 on rebound attempts (on 49 rebound opportunities)
41.98% in first on buzzer (335/798)
16/20 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $36,800)
12/14 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $19,957
Melissa Klapper (25) +7100
Merion Station, Pennsylvania
Melissa Klapper on Jeopardy!
75 correct, 12 incorrect
7/7 on rebound attempts (on 19 rebound opportunities)
30.26% in first on buzzer (69/228)
4/7 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $3,500)
2/4 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $16,400
Ike Barinholtz (10) +5100
Chicago, Illinois
Ike Barinholtz on Jeopardy!
132 correct, 3 incorrect
4/4 on rebound attempts (on 14 rebound opportunities)
48.02% in first on buzzer (121/252)
7/7 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $40,000)
3/3 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $24,167

Overall Thoughts: This is probably the most intriguing matchup, if only because of the presence of Ike Barinholtz. I don’t think anyone really knows how Ike is going to acclimate to the Tournament of Champions. Honestly—he’s got good LearnedLeague stats in a few categories, and those strengths actually remind me of Jonathan Fisher. If there’s a pop culture heavy board, I think he might surprise a few people. If not, though, I do think Melissa will be the one to take the game to Ray. I think Ray will advance, though.

Chances of winning this game: Ray Lalonde: 43.041%, Melissa Klapper: 27.124%, Ike Barinholtz: 29.835%. 

Tuesday, March 5, 2024:

Ben Chan (3) +1000
Green Bay, Wisconsin
Ben Chan on Jeopardy!
288 correct, 26 incorrect
10/14 on rebound attempts (on 40 rebound opportunities)
46.65% in first on buzzer (265/568)
18/25 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $29,805)
8/10 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $23,100
Justin Bolsen (11) +8200
Canton, Georgia
Justin Bolsen on Jeopardy!
123 correct, 17 incorrect
6/8 on rebound attempts (on 27 rebound opportunities)
34.50% in first on buzzer (118/342)
7/9 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $10,701)
3/5 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $13,900
Emmett Stanton (22) +6300
Baltimore, Maryland
Emmett Stanton on Jeopardy!
73 correct, 10 incorrect
6/6 on rebound attempts (on 21 rebound opportunities)
29.39% in first on buzzer (67/228)
4/6 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $11,000)
3/4 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $13,550

Overall Thoughts: Ben is the second favorite in this event per the prediction model, and I think he has a 50-50 chance of joining The 300 Club by the end of the opening round. (I know that’s really important to him.) While Emmett and Justin are no slouches here, I do think the stars have aligned well in the opening round for Ben to have some smooth sailing into the semis.

Chances of winning this game: Ben Chan: 47.887%, Justin Bolsen: 25.074%, Emmett Stanton: 27.039%.

Wednesday, March 6, 2024:

Troy Meyer (6) +1200
Tampa, Florida
Troy Meyer on Jeopardy!
199 correct, 15 incorrect
13/15 on rebound attempts (on 26 rebound opportunities)
46.12% in first on buzzer (184/399)
8/8 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $29,000)
5/7 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $23,629
Deb Bilodeau (17) +10000
San Francisco, California
Deb Bilodeau on Jeopardy!
124 correct, 20 incorrect
6/7 on rebound attempts (on 16 rebound opportunities)
36.36% in first on buzzer (124/341)
6/7 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $9,100)
3/6 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $13,867
Sean McShane (21) +2100
South Boston, Massachusetts
Sean McShane on Jeopardy!
110 correct, 9 incorrect
4/4 on rebound attempts (on 6 rebound opportunities)
46.93% in first on buzzer (107/228)
3/4 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $5,000)
3/4 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $22,700

Overall Thoughts: Deb’s reward for making it out of Champions Wildcard? A pair of players with average Coryat scores above $20,000. A lot of pundits think that Troy’s depth of knowledge will serve him well in a Tournament of Champions situation, and I tend to agree with that assessment. 

Chances of winning this game: Troy Meyer: 42.959%, Deb Bilodeau: 21.665%, Sean McShane: 35.376%. 



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6 Comments on "31st Tournament of Champions: Quarter-Final Preview"

  1. I will be so torn on Feb 29 – two local guys – – both very personable and one of them with a connection to my workplace AND Dr. Zaheer.

  2. Quarterfinal Predictions:
    Game 1 – Emily Sands
    Game 2 – Cris Pannullo
    Game 3 – Yungsheng Wang
    Game 4 – Yogesh Raut
    Game 5 – Juveria Zaheer
    Game 6 – Josh Saak
    Game 7 – Ike Barinholtz
    Game 8 – Ben Chan
    Game 9 – Troy Meyer

  3. I am way too lazy when it comes to these; once again, I’m posting them a day late, and I have to omit my first prediction. (Thankfully, it was correct.) Anyway…

    Match 2: Cris. He’s the top seed for a reason, and I think this is a perfect matchup for him in the quarterfinals. Jared, though, is strong enough that I can’t quite count him out, and I think it’s very possible for him to prevent a Cris runaway going into Final. As funny as a Ben G. victory would be, I don’t think it’ll happen.

    Match 3: Hannah. All three of these players were some of my favorite players throughout the past year and a half (ish), but Hannah is very strong in pretty much every metric, and I do think she’s got the best chances here. Judging by what you told me earlier, though, I can’t count David out… and as I said in the Hearts semifinals post, Yungsheng just seems to always find ways to win!

    Match 4: Yogesh. Okay, this is a case where I really have to put my bias aside for a minute and just focus on numbers. I’m still very annoyed with all of the drama that happened during and after Yogesh’s run, but predicting his loss in the quarterfinals with the matchup he was given would just be lying to myself. (I’m just glad I’ll be on a plane and without WiFi when the game airs for most of everybody.)

    Match 5: Juveria. Once again, while these three are three of my favorite players from all of S39, I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Juveria pull away with this one. She’s almost unflappable and doesn’t really seem to suffer with stamina, which I think hurt Luigi greatly in his original run. Regardless though, this is almost certainly gonna be a 2-player battle. If Kevin had enough money to have even a chance at winning going into Final, I’m counting that as a victory.

    Match 6: Brian. I flip-flopped a ton between him and Josh, especially because Josh’s only career loss so far has been to Matt Amodio. But as you mentioned in one of your Mailbag articles, buzzer skill is one of the most important aspects of a great player – and given how he’s the only one of the roster to have an average “buzz in first” % north of 50%, Brian has demonstrated that skill in spades. I’d even peg him as a potential favorite in the finals if he had a better time with the wagering clues!

    Match 7: Ray. Near-perfect record in Final Jeopardy aside, if Ray can find a groove with the buzzer, he’s going to absolutely dominate this entire match. And even if he can’t really find a groove with the buzzer, his strength on the more difficult material should serve him very well here. I think Ike is going to absolutely do better than most people believe, but for him to actually come out on top might require a bit of luck.

    Match 8: Ben C. Yeah, I think this one is pretty obvious. I will say, though, that Justin and Emmett are both extremely capable players and I wouldn’t be surprised if one (or both) of them was able to keep Ben C. from a runaway.

    Match 9: Troy. This will ultimately depend on which Troy shows up, I think. If Troy shows up to the studio on a good day, he’s gonna have the game locked up by the halfway point of Double Jeopardy. If not, though… it’s anybody’s game!

    Still kinda weird to think about how we’re actually in the ToC now, but as always, I can’t wait to see how it plays out!

    • Nice analysis MasterDoge. Now I’ll throw mine in. 🙂 Safe travels this coming Wednesday, during Quarterfinal #4.

  4. Well, the ToC started on Friday and I can’t wait for it to continue tomorrow. 🙂

    My prediction for Quarterfinal #1 was Matthew Marcus, but I did say that Emily had a chance because of her extreme buzzer skills. I should have given those buzzer and DD skills more deference. I posted my prediction in the comments after Thursday’s game.

    On to Quarterfinals #2 to #9 and who I will be predicting to win each.

    Quarterfinal #2 – Cris Pannullo – He’s clearly the class of this match and probably this whole Tournament of Champions, but this why we play the games. Ben said bring on Cris and amazingly he drew him. Cris had 17 runaways in his 21 wins, but will get a runaway here?

    Quarterfinal #3 – Yungsheng Wang – I think this will be a very competitive match, but I am taking Yungsheng due to his willingness to bet it all when it’s crunchtime. Though this does require him to find the DD’s. Hannah is an extremely strong 8 day champion and David Sibley is clearly very good as well, as his 4 game winning streak was ended by Cris Pannullo.

    Quarterfinal #4 – Yogesh Raut – He’s the one with best pedigree here and I think that will be enough to win here, but Jake DeArruda defeated a great 6 game winner in Troy Meyer and won 3 games. Nick Cascone was so much fun to watch in Season 37/38 Champions Wildcard Group 3 and made it through, in spite of not being favored, so he can play clearly and can’t be counted out here.

    Quarterfinal #5 – Juveria Zaheer – she lost to Hannah Wilson initially, but has come back with a vengeance in Second Chance and then Champions Wildcard. Luigi won 5 in between Seasons 38 and 39 and is formidable, but should have lost to April Marquet. Kevin Belle did win 3x’s, but his draw is formidable here.

    Quarterfinal #6 – Josh Saak – this was a tough one for me and I think 8 game winner Stephen Webb will be a very tough opponent for Josh. As others have noted, Josh has only lost to the great Matt Amodio. Brian Henegar was a 3x champ as well, but I just feel that the knowledge of the other 2 will be hard him to overcome, in spite of the buzzer skills that others have mentioned.

    Quarterfinal #7 – Ray Lalonde – Ray won 13x and his initial win was against a tough 3 day champion in Sean McShane. (I was there for the taping where Sean won his 3 games and didn’t stick around for the afternoon 2 games where Ray started his run – this was on October 24, 2022.) Melissa was strong in her 3 wins and honestly, I have no impression of Ike Barinholtz, as I haven’t watched any celebrity Jeopardy.

    Quarterfinal #8 – Ben Chan – I’d say Ben is the clear favorite in this one. His 9 wins were all in Runaway fashion, which is amazing! Emmett Stanton was 3x winner very early in Season 39 and defeated 5x champion Luigi de Guzman, only to lose to a strong 1x winner in Martha Bath. Justin Bolsen was awesome in his High School reunion win, but I just don’t see Ben Chan losing. He’s also a Green Bay Packers fan, which I am as well and makes him a favorite of mine.

    Quarterfinal #9 – Troy Meyer – Troy was a 6x winner, who appeared crestfallen when he lost to Jake DeArruda. 3x champion Sean McShane is pretty impressive (won by 2 by Runaway – which I saw in person) and he was the first multi-game winner after Cris Pannullo was defeated. Deb Bilodeau just played and won Group 2 of the 2024 Champions Wildcard and was extremely charismatic, but I believe received a hard draw here.

    So, we’ll see what happend again starting tomorrow night. 🙂

  5. Game 1: Emily Sands
    Game 2: Cris Pannullo
    Game 3: Yungsheng Wang
    Game 4: Yogesh Raut
    Game 5: Juveria Zaheer
    Game 6: Josh Saak
    Game 7: Ray Lalonde
    Game 8: Ben Chan
    Game 9: Troy Meyer
    I predicted these games on 2/23 but forgot to post them lol

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