Welcome to Masters Breakdown #5; where I go into more detail about things that happened on last night’s Jeopardy! Masters episode!
The Amodio Rodeo Is Ending
Unfortunately, Matt Amodio was eliminated from semifinal contention last night and is locked into sixth place. While he has had stretches of strong play, Matt’s bad luck on the Daily Doubles is probably his undoing; he’s only a net +200 points on Daily Doubles the entire tournament—and that just isn’t going to be enough for advancement at this level.
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Should Amy Schneider Have Bet Differently Last Night?
Certainly, if you look at just the final outcome from last night, you might say that “yes, Amy should have bet differently.” But it’s a lot more complicated than that: one does not know how Yogesh will bet, or how Final Jeopardy will play out. In my own analysis last night, I noted that Amy couldn’t both defend against a small bet from Yogesh and stay in front of Mattea if they made a cover bet. However, looking at things a little closer shows that a different strategy might have been better.
At this point in the tournament, Amy didn’t need to worry about Yogesh. Amy needed to worry about Mattea. While Mattea certainly needed to bet aggressively in an attempt to get 3 points from this match, a player of James’s calibre, in Amy’s position, would have realized this and bet small (no more than 3,400 points.) And, holding everything else constant, we would have seen Amy clinching a spot in the semifinals after last night.
That Amy–Mattea battle also provides a reasonable explanation for Yogesh’s all-in wager; Yogesh might reasonably conclude that Mattea might bet to keep Amy locked out—which then makes an all-in wager from Yogesh the best strategic move. (This also means that anyone making accusations of shenanigans is wildly off base.)
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Here’s how the prediction model breaks down Wednesday’s matchups:
Game 1:
| Player | Win % | Second % | Third % |
| Yogesh Raut (11-6) | 25.975% | 39.238% | 34.787% |
| James Holzhauer (47-9) | 44.352% | 27.634% | 28.014% |
| Matt Amodio (42-14) | 29.673% | 33.128% | 37.199% |
Game 2:
| Player | Win % | Second % | Third % |
| Victoria Groce (9-3) | 45.279% | 27.473% | 27.248% |
| Amy Schneider (48-17) | 31.534% | 35.620% | 32.846% |
| Mattea Roach (26-15) | 23.187% | 36.907% | 39.906% |
While James could theoretically be displaced down to fifth place, it would take an incredibly unlikely set of circumstances in order to do so. I also expect that James will just take matters into his own hands and dominate the run of play in the opening game. Thus, I think the only real thing left to play for at this point is the last spot in the semifinals, and that will be simple: whoever finishes with the higher score between Amy and Mattea gets the spot. I think Amy is probably more likely to get that spot at this point, though Mattea does have some momentum from Monday’s victory.
All in all, I think that Wednesday’s episode is going to be very interesting.
Thank you for this write up Andy. I always enjoy them. 🙂 I am very much looking forward to tomorrow night at 8 p.m. Pacific Time to see what happens!
This means that James will advance no matter what happens tonight, since Amy and Mattea are competing in Game 2 tonight.
That is not necessarily the case.
It is theoretically possible for James to finish third with very few correct responses, Mattea to win, and Amy finishing second despite getting the majority of the correct responses in the second game.
Gotcha. Probably won’t happen though, as Amy would have to get 32 more correct than him and still hope for Mattea to win.