We are down to nine players in the 32nd Tournament of Champions as things are just beginning to heat up! Here are your semifinal pairings:
Tuesday, February 4, 2025:
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Adriana Harmeyer (1) (+770) West Lafayette, Indiana  376 correct, 43 incorrect 21/24 on rebound attempts (on 63 rebound opportunities) 37.23% in first on buzzer (360/967) 12/18 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $18,000) 14/17 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $16,094 |
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Ryan Manton (10) (+890) Columbus, Ohio  125 correct, 11 incorrect 10/11 on rebound attempts (on 29 rebound opportunities) 32.46% in first on buzzer (111/342) 5/8 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $4,000) 2/6 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $17,100 |
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Will Wallace (12) (+1000) Austin, Texas  106 correct, 19 incorrect 8/8 on rebound attempts (on 32 rebound opportunities) 30.12% in first on buzzer (103/342) 6/8 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $8,200) 3/6 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $13,100 |
Andy’s General Thoughts: Semifinal #1 sees Adriana Harmeyer face off against Ryan Manton and Will Wallace. Adriana has a slight edge on the back of her strong play in Final Jeopardy during her initial run, while both Ryan and Will were in double digits in net high-value correct responses in their respective quarterfinals. Even if Adriana is in third going into Final, though, she might still be able to pull through on her strengths in Final Jeopardy as long as she’s in score contention.
What The Prediction Model Thinks: Adriana 35.301%, Ryan 33.249%, Will 31.450%.
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Wednesday, February 5, 2025:
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Isaac Hirsch (2) (+630) Burbank, California  299 correct, 51 incorrect 16/21 on rebound attempts (on 45 rebound opportunities) 47.60% in first on buzzer (298/626) 14/20 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $9,800) 8/11 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $19,909 |
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Mark Fitzpatrick (6) (+860) Riverside, Connecticut  151 correct, 31 incorrect 4/5 on rebound attempts (on 27 rebound opportunities) 38.44% in first on buzzer (153/398) 13/17 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $34,600) 2/7 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $16,371 |
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Amy Hummel (7) (+1500) Milwaukee, Wisconsin  134 correct, 27 incorrect 9/12 on rebound attempts (on 41 rebound opportunities) 34.01% in first on buzzer (134/394) 3/8 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$11,700) 4/7 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $13,686 |
Andy’s General Thoughts: The only reason why Isaac didn’t win his exhibition game is because Drew found Daily Doubles. Mark had a strong quarterfinal, but I could definitely see Isaac dominating the run of play in this semifinal. Amy has time and again demonstrated that she knows how to win, though, and she could absolutely swoop in and take this one if Isaac and Mark run into problems.
What The Prediction Model Thinks: Isaac 38.611%, Mark 34.058%, Amy 27.331%.
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Thursday, February 6, 2025:
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Drew Basile (3) (+720) Birmingham, Michigan  198 correct, 41 incorrect 10/15 on rebound attempts (on 45 rebound opportunities) 38.72% in first on buzzer (199/514) 11/16 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $37,400) 4/9 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $16,111 |
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Drew Goins (9) (+570) Honolulu, Hawaiʻi  204 correct, 23 incorrect 8/10 on rebound attempts (on 35 rebound opportunities) 38.21% in first on buzzer (196/513) 10/12 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $30,200) 5/9 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $18,156 |
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Neilesh Vinjamuri (17) (+450) Lionville, Pennsylvania  124 correct, 13 incorrect 8/9 on rebound attempts (on 27 rebound opportunities) 40.35% in first on buzzer (115/285) 7/8 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $10,500) 2/5 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $20,000 |
Andy’s General Thoughts: There are some people on the Internet who would like to translate two-player bracketing to three-player and believe that it’s the only fair way to bracket players. However, here are my two cents, informed by my decades worth of experience in terms of tournament logistics and organization in multiple sports/competitive activities: I believe the fairest way to bracket a three-player semifinal is to place the #4 and #5 player in with the #3 player, as it gives the #4 and #5 players the fairest chance of advancing. I came around to this many years ago when I realized that the Jeopardy tournament narrative always seemed to be “two strong players and someone else” in the final—and what better way to determine that third spot by letting 3, 4, and 5 play against each other? It also has your 3, 4, and 5 avoid those two strong players until the end. I applaud Michael Davies for pairing the top two quarterfinalists by score with the #3 seed—even keeping the two Drews together in doing so—because I believe this is smarter bracketing than what many on the Internet are suggesting. I suspect that this match is going to be reminiscent of the Will Yancey–Evan Dorey semifinal in Champions Wildcard, but we shall see what happens.
The Prediction Model Thinks: Neilesh 36.543%, Drew G. 33.313%, Drew B. 30.324%.
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Alright, here we go…
Semifinal #1: Ryan – I had to seriously think about this one. When both are at their best, Adriana and Ryan are arguably of the same skill level, but much like with Grant DeYoung and David Erb, both of their strengths cancel out the other’s strengths. I think Ryan is generally much stronger on the buzzer (when it comes to attempts / successful buzzes), and combining that with his excellence with Daily Doubles and controlling unforced errors (and my own gut feeling) makes me consider him a favorite, but it’s by such a weak margin that you could predict Adriana running away with it and I’d somewhat understand where you’re coming from.
Semifinal #2: Isaac – On the one hand, Mark was absolutely LOCKED IN in Friday’s game (seriously… I have NEVER seen a successful buzz rate as high as the 86% that Mark put up in his quarterfinal); on the other hand, it was on a substantially lower attempt count than what Isaac usually puts up. (And based on how Isaac successfully buzzed in first on more clues in the exhibition game than Mark even attempted to buzz in on in his quarterfinal, I think it’s reasonable to assume that.) Could the 28 attempts just be the case of bad boards, material-wise, for Mark? Definitely. But Isaac’s past buzzer prowess and his excellent knowledge base make me consider him the favorite.
Semifinal #3: Neilesh – If either Amar or Lucas had won last night, I’d have just let the 33 correct responses and $28,200 Coryat that Neilesh turned in in the quarterfinals (against GREG JOLIN, of all people) speak for itself, but the fact that Drew G. won makes it a little bit more complicated. Don’t get me wrong, I’d still consider Neilesh the favorite for this match – and especially if Isaac is upset on Wednesday, I’d go as far as to say Neilesh would be the favorite to win overall – but he definitely has a lot more work to do if he wants to win. As much as I enjoyed watching both Drews play, I’ve already kind of resigned myself to simply hoping they appear in an Invitational down the line… but who knows?
I’m definitely looking forward to some excellent Jeopardy over the next week 🙂
Andy!
Thank you for this Preview. It will increase my enjoyment.
Well, look who Neilesh drew?
Expecting 3 very good games.