Today saw the confirmation of the field of the 33rd Tournament of Champions, set to begin on January 19, 2026; taping of the tournament will begin tomorrow. Due to this, I get a brief window of opportunity to post a pre-taping preview of the event.
Once again, each player’s statistics have been plugged into the Unified Prediction Model, which has made predictions for this event.
As I have said in the past, if a player might worry about being affected by these predictions, I would strongly recommend waiting until after the tournament has completed taping before reading this article.
One important note: Allegra Kuney’s Adjusted Performance Mean is not yet finalized, as she lost to Harrison Whitaker, who is still playing (and whose own stats affects Allegra’s “opponent adjustment”) as of this writing. Allegra’s stats in these predictions take into account Harrison’s statistics through four victories (November 14, 2025).
Scott Riccardi (16 wins, $455,000)
464 correct, 32 incorrect
27/28 on rebound attempts (on 72 rebound opportunities)
43.45% in first on buzzer (421/969)
23/30 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $58,000)
12/17 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $23,047
42.058% to advance to finals; 20.985% to win
Andy’s Pre-Tournament Thoughts: 16 wins, many of them dominant, is going to make Scott the prohibitive favorite to win this Tournament of Champions. However, one easily could have said the same thing about Cris Pannullo two years ago. There’s a lot of variance in this game, and Scott is going to need to navigate that in order to win this event.
Laura Faddah (8 wins, $92,599)
148 correct, 30 incorrect
13/13 on rebound attempts (on 41 rebound opportunities)
29.60% in first on buzzer (148/500)
5/8 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $3,400)
3/9 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $12,400
26.513% to advance to finals; 4.246% to win
Andy’s Pre-Tournament Thoughts: I think a lot of pundits, including the Unified Prediction Model, are going to underestimate Laura in this event, and they do so at their peril. Laura didn’t win 8 times for nothing!
Paolo Pasco (7 wins, $195,717)
200 correct, 12 incorrect
10/10 on rebound attempts (on 30 rebound opportunities)
39.91% in first on buzzer (182/456)
10/12 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $25,600)
6/8 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $20,250
38.396% to advance to finals; 15.263% to win
Andy’s Pre-Tournament Thoughts: The third of our three players with byes to the semifinals is Paolo, who’s also the second favorite to take the title. He’s also incredibly strong with crosswords, and the more difficult material could very well play to his strengths in a ToC setting.
Andrew Hayes (6 wins, $137,804)
158 correct, 22 incorrect
9/10 on rebound attempts (on 28 rebound opportunities)
37.84% in first on buzzer (151/399)
7/12 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $14,200)
5/7 in Final Jeopardy<
Average Coryat: $17,514
34.569% to advance to semifinals; 11.259% to advance to finals; 3.397% to win
Andy’s Pre-Tournament Thoughts: Andrew’s games are being rerun on the weekend right now, so it’s been interesting to revisit them through the lens of this tournament field. Yes, he did catch a couple of early breaks, but he’s also a good player and will be a very tough out in any round of this field.
Liam Starnes (6 wins, $123,584)
144 correct, 22 incorrect
8/10 on rebound attempts (on 34 rebound opportunities)
34.09% in first on buzzer (136/399)
10/13 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $41,190)
3/7 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $15,600
36.327% to advance to semifinals; 12.440% to advance to finals; 4.390% to win
Andy’s Pre-Tournament Thoughts: Liam is absolutely a fan favourite of all ages, and I think his recent quiz bowl experience will only serve to help him on the tougher material that we often see in the Tournament of Champions.
Josh Weikert (6 wins, $100,202)
161 correct, 23 incorrect
7/8 on rebound attempts (on 29 rebound opportunities)
40.10% in first on buzzer (160/399)
7/9 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $12,200)
2/7 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $17,914
32.114% to advance to semifinals; 9.343% to advance to finals; 2.329% to win
Andy’s Pre-Tournament Thoughts: Much like a few others in this field, Josh did catch a couple of breaks en route to his six victories. But you need to be a good player to put yourself in a position to take advantage of those breaks. He’s certainly not a player I’d want to be paired against in this field.
Ben Ganger (5 wins, $105,915)
151 correct, 29 incorrect
15/18 on rebound attempts (on 36 rebound opportunities)
42.40% in first on buzzer (145/342)
9/11 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $23,200)
3/6 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $15,333
34.343% to advance to semifinals; 11.421% to advance to finals; 3.593% to win
Andy’s Pre-Tournament Thoughts: Between March 14 and May 6, seven different Tournament of Champions players qualified. Ben, the last of those seven, picked up five victories. I could definitely see him picking up a couple of more victories.
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TJ Fisher (5 wins, $100,723)
150 correct, 30 incorrect
4/7 on rebound attempts (on 17 rebound opportunities)
45.03% in first on buzzer (154/342)
10/13 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $15,800)
1/6 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $18,133
30.976% to advance to semifinals; 9.085% to advance to finals; 2.272% to win
Andy’s Pre-Tournament Thoughts: TJ had an incredible time on the buzzer at times, especially on low-valued clues. While that’s great for regular play, I’m concerned as to how well that will translate to a Tournament of Champions situation. Going 1-for-6 in Final Jeopardy is also a minor cause for concern here.
Champions Wildcard Winner
36.312% to advance to semifinals; 12.604% to advance to finals; 4.420% to win
Andy’s Pre-Tournament Thoughts: We obviously won’t know until mid-January who will take this place; however, whoever does will very likely be on a good run of success and has a very good chance to make a deep run in this field.
Lisa Ann Walter (Season 2 Celebrity Jeopardy winner)
85 correct, 12 incorrect
8/10 on rebound attempts (on 22 rebound opportunities)
30.16% in first on buzzer (76/252)
6/8 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $5,900)
3/3 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $15,167
26.917% to advance to semifinals; 6.939% to advance to finals; 1.255% to win
Andy’s Pre-Tournament Thoughts: Lisa Ann Walter, winner of Season 2 of Celebrity Jeopardy, is definitely a long shot to take victory; she might need to play more aggressively in order to have a chance of following up on what Ike Barinholtz did two years ago.
W. Kamau Bell (Season 3 Celebrity Jeopardy winner)
90 correct, 13 incorrect
3/4 on rebound attempts (on 15 rebound opportunities)
35.71% in first on buzzer (90/252)
5/6 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $11,305)
1/3 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $15,300
29.148% to advance to semifinals; 8.086% to advance to finals; 1.730% to win
Andy’s Pre-Tournament Thoughts: Much like Lisa Ann, Kamau Bell is a bit of a long shot to win it all; but I do think he has a better chance than Lisa Ann does of making it to the semifinals.
Alex DeFrank (4 wins, $102,400)
125 correct, 24 incorrect
4/7 on rebound attempts (on 18 rebound opportunities)
45.96% in first on buzzer (131/285)
5/6 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $21,800)
3/5 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $17,280
38.518% to advance to semifinals; 14.308% to advance to finals; 5.758% to win
Andy’s Pre-Tournament Thoughts: Alex had some very high-scoring games, and Alex had some lower-scoring games. Alex’s tournament hopes might revolve around which Alex we see in the ToC.
Allegra Kuney (4 wins, $92,600)
121 correct, 15 incorrect
4/5 on rebound attempts (on 14 rebound opportunities)
41.05% in first on buzzer (117/285)
7/9 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $15,100)
4/5 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $18,560
37.518% to advance to semifinals; 13.494% to advance to finals; 5.042% to win
Andy’s Pre-Tournament Thoughts: Allegra, the last player to qualify for the event, had some very strong performances and I’d love to see her make a deep run in the Tournament. She’s certainly capable of doing so!
Steven Olson (4 wins, $74,382)
128 correct, 24 incorrect
3/6 on rebound attempts (on 15 rebound opportunities)
45.74% in first on buzzer (129/282)
10/12 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $17,200)
3/5 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $16,880
36.340% to advance to semifinals; 12.651% to advance to finals; 4.530% to win
Andy’s Pre-Tournament Thoughts: After defeating Paolo Pasco, Steven went on to win three more games. His numbers in the prediction model have been brought down slightly by his loss to Vickie Talvola.
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Bryce Wargin (4 wins, $70,199)
95 correct, 20 incorrect
7/9 on rebound attempts (on 27 rebound opportunities)
32.63% in first on buzzer (93/285)
6/8 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $13,600)
3/5 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $12,440
31.760% to advance to semifinals; 9.505% to advance to finals; 2.458% to win
Andy’s Pre-Tournament Thoughts: Much like Andrew Hayes and Mike Dawson, Bryce’s games have been rerun recently. The defeat to Mike might have brought his numbers down slightly, but he’ll still not be easy to remove from this Tournament.
Ashley Chan (4 wins, $67,400)
101 correct, 16 incorrect
1/2 on rebound attempts (on 12 rebound opportunities)
36.14% in first on buzzer (103/285)
5/7 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $8,500)
2/5 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $13,640
30.660% to advance to semifinals; 9.134% to advance to finals; 2.284% to win
Andy’s Pre-Tournament Thoughts: Ashley was the first player to win enough to make it into this field; while she did struggle in her last game, her first four shows that she’s more than capable of winning a game or even two in this Tournament of Champions.
Matt Massie (3 wins, $79,800)
97 correct, 20 incorrect
5/6 on rebound attempts (on 17 rebound opportunities)
44.44% in first on buzzer (100/225)
5/7 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $17,200)
3/4 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $17,700
34.883% to advance to semifinals; 11.796% to advance to finals; 3.896% to win
Andy’s Pre-Tournament Thoughts: Matt picked up a pair of big victories to start, but seemed to lose stamina quickly by the end of the day. That might prove good for his chances in the first couple of rounds, where he’ll only need to play once or twice over the course of a day.
Tom Devlin (3 wins, $73,199)
113 correct, 11 incorrect
8/8 on rebound attempts (on 17 rebound opportunities)
46.49% in first on buzzer (106/228)
5/6 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $15,600)
2/4 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $21,700
37.621% to advance to semifinals; 13.627% to advance to finals; 5.215% to win
Andy’s Pre-Tournament Thoughts: Tom very easily could have won a lot more than three games; if there’s anyone I’d want to avoid in the opening round, it would be Tom.
Brendan Liaw (3 wins, $59,398)
95 correct, 19 incorrect
3/5 on rebound attempts (on 15 rebound opportunities)
44.74% in first on buzzer (102/228)
2/4 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$6,400)
1/3 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $17,750
32.544% to advance to semifinals; 10.107% to advance to finals; 2.874% to win
Andy’s Pre-Tournament Thoughts: Canada’s hopes in this event will likely rest upon Brendan Liaw, who picked up three victories before falling in Game 4 on a tough-but-fair Daily Double ruling. He’ll be a tough out in this ToC.
Mike Dawson (3 wins, $57,000)
80 correct, 11 incorrect
4/5 on rebound attempts (on 21 rebound opportunities)
35.09% in first on buzzer (80/228)
1/2 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$3,400)
2/4 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $15,050
29.813% to advance to semifinals; 8.458% to advance to finals; 1.953% to win
Andy’s Pre-Tournament Thoughts: Mike is another player whose games have been rerun recently, winning 3 times before losing to Andrew Hayes. As another player whose numbers dropped the more he was on stage, only having to play once in the QFs may help him.
Aaron Levine (3 wins, $48,999)
77 correct, 13 incorrect
3/3 on rebound attempts (on 24 rebound opportunities)
32.46% in first on buzzer (74/228)
6/9 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $12,700)
2/4 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $14,050
30.416% to advance to semifinals; 8.776% to advance to finals; 2.110% to win
Andy’s Pre-Tournament Thoughts: After sweating through the bubble, Aaron’s taken the last seed in this year’s Tournament of Champions. The last seed, though, is absolutely capable of going on a run, as has been demonstrated in the past; I’m expecting Aaron to put up a very strong fight.
Finals Length Predictions:
Chances of 3 games: 12.111%
Chances of 4 games: 23.400%
Chances of 5 games: 30.049%
Chances of 6 games: 23.184%
Chances of 7 games: 11.256%
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Here’s some assorted thoughts given at a time where I really ought to be sleeping! 😁
I would not at all be surprised to see Scott and Paolo as two of the three finalists, no matter who they end up facing; I think Paolo is another player that would heavily benefit from only having to play one game at a time until the finals (though being against a very strong buzzer in Steven also might have done him in), and I have a feeling Scott will be much more willing to adapt an aggressive style of play compared to his original run.
I’ve already seen some criticism online that Laura was the second player to receive a bye, and I don’t think pretty much any of it is justified. So what if her stats were quote-unquote “weak”? She still won eight times! Plus, looking at her ninth game – which Harvey Silikovitz absolutely demolished – shows she’s perfectly capable of hanging in there with tough competition, and all that has to happen is for her to be in score contention for her to possibly pull off a victory. (I’m reminded at this time of the joke that goes something like “What do you call the person that graduated last in their class from medical school?”…)
Tom is going to be an absolutely terrifying player in this field, I can already tell; his run was cut FAR too short by some bad wagering clue luck. I genuinely would not be surprised to see him still standing at the end of the tournament, and I have a feeling he’ll end up the definite favorite against at least two of the three seeded players should he make it to the semis. (Not sure about Scott yet, but we’ll see!)
I have a feeling that many games in this tournament will come down to accuracy, more specifically whether or not these players can adopt different habits this time around. There’s many players in the tournament with accuracy rates of about 80% to 85% – which, unless that’s changed, might be what stops them from advancing any farther than the round they start out in.
Something tells me this tournament is gonna be one for the ages 🙂
I was at the studio for Laura’s 8th win and then her loss to Harvey and you are right and winning 8 games is nothing to sneeze at. And had Harvey been right in FJ, he would have won $50k in that game. Plus, Harvey has James Holzhauer as a coach and that makes for a tough duo for Laura to have overcome.
Then Harvey faced 2 opponents that are both in the postseason (1 in Second Chance and 1 in Champions Wildcard, obviously) and they are great players.
It should be great and I can’t wait to see quite a few players that I have seen on the Alex Trebek Stage! 🙂