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Final Jeopardy! category: THE ECONOMY
Final Jeopardy! clue: Systemically Important Financial Institution is an official status known more informally by these 4 words
(correct response beneath the contestants)
Today’s contestants:
Margie Eulner Ott, a consultant & ride share driver from Bethesda, Maryland |
Eric Felkey, a kitchen manger from Columbus, OH |
Seth Wilson, a PhD candidate from Chicago, Illinois (12-day total: $265,002) |
[spoiler title=’Click/Tap Here for Correct Response’]What is “too big to fail”?[/spoiler]
After the recent global financial crisis internationally, regulators in the global financial system have taken steps to ensure that these Systematically Important Financial Institutions do not fail, or if they do, limiting the adverse effects of its failure (hence, the “too big to fail”).
The United States has 8 Globally Systematically Important Banks: Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, State Street, and Wells Fargo.
Canada’s seven largest banks (Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, National Bank of Canada, Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank, and Desjardins Group) are designated Domestic Systematically Important Banks.
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Scores going into Final Jeopardy:
Seth $19,000
Margie $17,000
Eric $1,800
Final Results:
Eric $1,800 – $1,800 = $0 (no response)
Margie $17,000 + $17,000 = $34,000 (1-day total: $34,000)
Seth $19,000 + $5 = $19,005
Here’s why Seth’s bet wasn’t as bad as you think.
Daily Double locations:
1) NAPOLEON $1000 (19th pick)
Seth 5200 -1000 (Margie 1000 Eric 200)
—
2) ALLITERATIVE TV ACTRESSES $1200 (3rd pick)
Seth 7800 +2000 (Margie 1000 Eric 200)
3) 12-LETTER WORDS $1600 (27th pick; $2,400 left on board, minute-to-go signal given)
Margie 11000 +6000 (Seth 18000 Eric 1800)
Unplayed clues:
J! round: STAMPS $800 & $1000
DJ! round: 12-LETTER WORDS $400
Game Stats:
Margie 12,600 Coryat, 14 correct, 4 incorrect, 29.63% in first on buzzer
Seth 19,200 Coryat, 27 correct, 3 incorrect, 46.30% in first on buzzer
Eric 1,800 Coryat, 7 correct, 2 incorrect, 14.81% in first on buzzer
Seth Wilson, final stats:
316 correct
34 incorrect
15/22 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $16,300)
9/13 in Final Jeopardy
41.26% in first on buzzer (295/715)
Average Coryat: $18,077
Margie Eulner Ott, stats to date:
15 correct
4 incorrect
1/1 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $6,000)
1/1 in Final Jeopardy
29.63% in first on buzzer (16/54)
Average Coryat: $12,600
Margie Eulner Ott, to win:
2 games: 51.24%
3: 26.26%
4: 13.45%
5: 6.89%
6: 3.53%
Avg. streak: 2.051 games.
So sorry Seth lost. I wanted him to continue to win!
Sorry, I can’t see why Seth’s wager was “not bad.” I can’t see why it was anything at all. What was the reasoning? Bet zero, bet high, bet in the middle, but five dollars?
$5 (or $2, or some token small amount) is better than $0 does as it adds between 2 to 3 percent to your chances of winning, as the defense-post linked above states, bringing its chances of winning close enough to that of the standard bet that I am saying that it “wasn’t bad”.
The reason Seth’s wager was not bad was because he was counting on Margie wagering her best amount, which would have been $2,001. This would have put her $1 ahead of Seth. Wagering $17,000 was not her optimal wager because if she got it wrong she would have lost everything and has no chance of winning, however, if she wagers $2,001 and gets it wrong she has $14,999 and still has a chance of winning if Seth makes a wager to cover her wager (in this case if he wagers $15,001 and gets it wrong he has $3,999 and she wins). So his wager of $5 would cover him if she made the correct wager of $2,001 because she would’ve had $19,001 and he would’ve had $19,005. But Margie got lucky and got the question right and made the right wager.
First up: “Right” and “Correct” are synonyms here and are being used to describe two completely different strategies out of Margie.
Secondly: Seth’s wager was “not bad” not because of whatever he thought Margie might do; it was “not bad” because the winning percentages, which are based on over a decade’s worth of empirical wagering data, said that it was not optimal for Seth’s chances, but close — enough that it might be worth a gambit in order to draw out larger less-optimal wagers later from opponents.
That being said, if we’re going to talk optimal small wagers out of Margie in a four-fifths game such as this one, $4,001 is a much better wager than $2,001, as it protects against precisely the sort of wager that Seth did. In fact, the wagering calculator at J! Archive sets Margie’s minimum optimal wager at $4,001 for this reason.
However, in practice, it is much more common for a trailer to make the much-less-optimal $2,001 wager.
(I use “optimal small” because obviously if she thinks Seth isn’t going to cover, the optimal wager for her becomes exactly what she did in this game: bet every single dollar.)