Quick Recap & Today’s Final Jeopardy – March 28, 2017

11 Comments on "Quick Recap & Today’s Final Jeopardy – March 28, 2017"

1. Andy Saunders | March 28, 2017 at 4:03 pm |

   Scores going into Final:
   Julie $19,200
   Steve $17,600
   Adam $17,400

   Final results:
   Adam $17,400 + $201 = $17,601
   Steve $17,600 – $17,595 = $5 (What is the firing on Ft. Sumter?)
   Julie $19,200 + $9,200 = $28,400 (1-day total: $28,400)

   Scores after the Jeopardy! Round:
   Adam $8,400
   Steve $7,200
   Julie $3,600

   Opening break taken after: 15 clues

   Daily Double locations:
   1) A FALLEN CATEGORY $600 (16th pick)
   Adam 3400 +3400 (Steve 3000 Julie 1000)
   —
   2) A VIEW FROM THE BRIDGE $1600 (19th pick)
   Julie 13200 +2000 (Steve 11200 Adam 10000)
   3) MacARTHUR GENIUS GRANT RECIPIENTS $1200 (26th pick; $4800 left on board)
   Adam 12000 +5000 (Steve 16800 Julie 15600)

   Unplayed clues:
   J! round: None!
   DJ! round: None!
   $ Left on Board: $0

   Game Stats:
   Julie $18,800 Coryat, 22 correct, 2 incorrect, 40.35% in first on buzzer
   Adam $10,800 Coryat, 14 correct, 0 incorrect, 17.54% in first on buzzer
   Steve $17,600 Coryat, 21 correct, 0 incorrect, 36.84% in first on buzzer
   Lach Trash: $5,200
   Coryat lost to incorrect responses: $1,600

   Adam Vesterholt, final stats:
   35 correct
   6 incorrect
   5/5 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $15,801)
   2/2 in Final Jeopardy
   27.43% in first on buzzer (31/113)
   Average Coryat: $9,900

   Julia Brannon, stats to date:
   23 correct
   2 incorrect
   1/1 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $2,000)
   1/1 in Final Jeopardy
   40.35% in first on buzzer (23/57)
   Average Coryat: $18,800

   Julie Brannon, to win:
   2 games: 64.00%
   3: 40.96%
   4: 26.21%
   5: 16.77%
   6: 10.73%
   Avg. streak: 2.778 games.
   Avg. Total Winnings (including possible ToC): $70,924.

   With a projected 78 regular-play games to go prior to the Tournament of Champions cutoff, after 250,000 simulations, our model shows:
   An average of 2.9136 5+-time champions (standard deviation 1.3229).
   An average of 4.4813 4+-time champions (standard deviation 1.6174).

   An early cutoff took place 11.372% of the time (or a 5-game winner will be left out).

   Julie Brannon qualified 22.155% of the time.
   Tim Kutz qualified 66.182% of the time.
   Todd Giese qualified 23.638% of the time.
   Rob Liguori qualified 5.308% of the time.
   Fred Vaughn qualified 1.112% of the time

   Miscellany:

   • This game had the highest combined Coryat ($47,200) and highest combined score after Double Jeopardy ($54,200) since April 25, 2016 (Buzzy Cohen’s first game, $51,400 combined Coryat, $58,800 combined score.)
   • The average future value of a win on Jeopardy! for a player with an $18,800 Coryat in their first game is $42,524. Thus, it could be said that the fact that her bet dropped Julie’s chances of winning from 50.8% to 21.8% dropped her expected value from $40,170.30 to $10,740.72 — a difference of $29,429.60 (due to the chances of finishing 2nd and 3rd)
   • Today’s game had the second-highest regular-play third-place score going into Final Jeopardy (of $17,400) since October 4, 2004. Lee Ann Roberts had $18,000 going into Final on January 8, 2013.
2. john blahuta | March 28, 2017 at 4:32 pm |

   Lucky for Julie that Steve got it wrong. She should have bet 16.001 imo. Yet the jinx of one day champions continues…Adam could also not pull off a repeat. March was not a good month for multiple champs.

   • Andy Saunders | March 28, 2017 at 6:14 pm |

     Well, it would be nice if everyone bet that way, but for the run of the show and for the entirety of the run in the future there will be people who elect to bet differently from that, and that’s what makes things more interesting!

   • Frank Smith | March 28, 2017 at 9:17 pm |

     Steve wagered almost everything, and almost got it right. He was 2 years off, but on the right track with the Civil War response. I actually knew that it was Gettysburg, by counting up 25 and back 100 from 1938.

3. Alex Epstein | March 28, 2017 at 7:37 pm |

   Is this have a higher combined coryat than the mickinnie game on April 15 of last year? Also is the third place score of $17,400 the highest third place total ever?

   • Andy Saunders | March 28, 2017 at 7:44 pm |

     I’ve added another Miscellany point, Alex. It’s the second-highest. 🙂

4. Maurine Gutowski | March 28, 2017 at 7:49 pm |

   Lucky for Julie that ADAM bet so LITTLE, since he got the right answer. He must be kicking himself. I got it right. I’ve been watching the PBS reruns of Ken Burns’The Civil War.

   • Andy Saunders | March 28, 2017 at 8:40 pm |

     Adam’s bet was certainly on the low end of a range of good bets (where the high end would have won him the game.)

5. Alex Epstein | March 28, 2017 at 7:51 pm |

   Ohhhh I didn’t notice now I see it

   • Andy Saunders | March 28, 2017 at 8:39 pm |

     I added it after you asked about it. 🙂

6. David | March 29, 2017 at 8:44 pm |

   I added 5 to 1938 and that’s as far as I got. As soon as I thought of the ”3” my mind zoomed straight to Gettysburg. … Put Me In, Alex ! 🙂