Today’s Final Jeopardy – January 16, 2019


Here’s today’s Final Jeopardy (in the category People & Places) for Wednesday, January 16, 2019 (Season 35, Episode 93):

In 1790 Thursday October Christian became the first child whose birth was recorded on this remote island

(correct response beneath the contestants)


Today’s contestants:

Jill Cochran, a retired technical trainer from Huntington, West Virginia
Jill Cochran on Jeopardy!
John Presloid, a microbiologist from Perrysburg, Ohio
John Presloid on Jeopardy!
Anneke Garcia, an instructional design consultant from Salt Lake City, Utah (4-day total: $104,497)
Anneke Garcia on Jeopardy!

After yesterday’s huge win, Anneke finds herself in spot #10 on the ToC Tracker. A win today puts here at #7 or #8.

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Are you going on the show and looking for information about how to bet in Final Jeopardy? Check out my new Betting Strategy 101 page!

I recently updated my tournament wild card models with as much tournament data that I’ve been able to find! If you’re playing in a tournament, you’ll want to check this out!

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Correct response: What is Pitcairn Island?


Did you know that you can now find game-by-game stats of everyone, including Austin Rogers, who has won 10 or more games on Jeopardy!, here on the site?


More information about Final Jeopardy:

Pitcairn Island today contains about 50 people; A 2013 clue on the show said it was “encouraging immigration” as a way of increasing its population. It was founded in 1790 by Fletcher Christian’s band of mutineers on the HMS Bounty, as well as a number of Polynesian women (who the mutineers took as wives). The island is still mostly comprised of descendants of these mutineers. Its main settlement, Adamstown, is named after John Adams (unrelated to the 2nd President), who was the last living mutineer on the island.

Longtime fans of the show may remember the Ultimate Tournament of Champions incident involving John Ryan, who spelled it “Pictcairn” in Final Jeopardy! and was ruled incorrect. Thankfully for John, it would not have affected his third place finish in that game. Both that 2005 and another 2007 Final Jeopardy! clue had a person with the last name Christian in the clue, as a way of directing people to Pitcairn.


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Looking to find out who won Jeopardy! today? Tonight’s results are below!

Scores going into Final:
Jill $14,200
Anneke $9,800
John $7,400


Tonight’s results:
John $7,400 + $4,600 = $12,000 (1-day total: $12,000)
Anneke $9,800 – $9,800 = $0 (What is Christmas Island?)
Jill $14,200 – $6,401 = $7,799 (What is Bounty?)


John Presloid, Jeopardy! winner (for the January 16, 2019 episode.)


Scores after the Jeopardy! Round:
Jill $5,400
John $4,200
Anneke $3,000


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Opening break taken after: 15 clues


Daily Double locations:
1) ENGLISH ROYAL FIRSTS $600 (16th pick)
Jill 2200 +1800 (John 2000 Anneke 600)
2) SIGH… POLI SCI $1200 (13th pick)
Anneke 9800 -3000 (Jill 7400 John 5400)
3) CIVIL WAR POETRY $1200 (23rd pick)
Anneke 10000 -1000 (Jill 9800 John 6200)
Overall Daily Double Efficiency for this game: 41


Unplayed clues:
J! round: SHOP TALK $200
DJ! Round: None!
Total $ Left On Board: $200

Game Stats:
John $7,400 Coryat, 15 correct, 1 incorrect, 23.21% in first on buzzer, 2/3 on rebound attempts
Jill $13,000 Coryat, 15 correct, 3 incorret, 28.59% in first on buzzer, 0/1 on rebound attempts
Anneke $13,800 Coryat, 18 correct, 7 incorrect, 39.29% in first on buzzer, 0/1 on rebound attempts
Combined Coryat Score: $34,200
Lach Trash: $10,000 (on 9 Triple Stumpers)
Coryat lost to incorrect responses (less double-correct responses): $9,600


Anneke Garcia, stats to date:
110 correct, 16 incorrect
3/4 on rebound attempts
40.36% in first on buzzer (113/280)
1/4 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$3,000)
3/5 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $18,360


John Presloid, stats to date:
16 correct, 1 incorrect
2/3 on rebound attempts
23.21% in first on buzzer (13/56)
0/0 on Daily Doubles
1/1 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $7,400

John Presloid, to win:
2 games: 27.27%
3: 7.43%
4: 2.03%
5: 0.55%
6: 0.15%
Avg. streak: 1.375 games.


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Tournament of Champions projections:
With a projected 147 regular-play games to go prior to the Tournament of Champions cutoff, after 500,000 simulations, our model shows:
An average of 4.0636 5+-time champions (standard deviation 1.6923).
An average of 7.3646 4+-time champions (standard deviation 2.0944).

An early cutoff took place 19.325% of the time (or a 5-game winner will be left out).

John Presloid qualified 0.789% of the time.
Anneke Garcia qualified 57.348% of the time.
Dave Leffler qualified 32.189% of the time.
Jonathan Dinerstein qualified 11.098% of the time.
Alex Schmidt qualified 2.815% of the time.
Jackie Fuchs qualified 0.371% of the time.


Andy’s Thoughts:

  • The probability of Anneke having a score of $9,800 or worse going into Final Jeopardy, given her performance in her first four games? 2.85%.
  • The 2007 clue about Pitcairn Island I referenced in the write-up above also went 1-for-3, so I guess I can’t be surprised about what happened here.
  • It really has been difficult over the past number of years to win five games, as evidenced by our prediction model liking Anneke’s chances, slightly, of being able to hold onto a Tournament of Champions spot.
  • With regards to the game’s Final Jeopardy! betting: John was in a position where he had to be right to win, (as evidenced by his pre-Final score of 7400 and Jill’s final score of 7799), so he had an incentive to bet everything. Thus, this forces Anneke into a cover wager (which means she can’t win a Double Stumper with Jill; this is the key point of Stratton’s Dilemma, for what it’s worth), and because she can’t win the Double Stumper, she might as well bet everything as well. Thus, aside from John not betting everything where he could (or should?) have, today’s bets were pretty good.
  • Pavlovs: (Islets of) Langerhans + organ = Pancreas. (Islets of) Langerhans + hormone = insulin.
  • I figured out what caused the music difference yesterday: There was so much time left over yesterday (because there was only 1 Triple Stumper and very few negs) that the show had a lengthier credits run (and thus needed to start the theme music earlier in the song). Today saw a much shorter credits run, as more time was needed to get through interviews, Alex’s opening, and Final Jeopardy.

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