Here’s today’s Final Jeopardy (in the category National Anthems) for Thursday, May 30, 2019 (Season 35, Episode 189):
Its anthem was adopted in 1947 to replace one by Joseph Haydn that had been tainted by association with Nazis
(correct response beneath the contestants)
Today’s contestants:
Rob Wolf, a family physician from Newark, Delaware |
Megan Browndorf, a librarian from Washington, D.C. |
James Holzhauer, a professional sports gambler from Las Vegas, Nevada (30-day total: $2,323,971) |
If you’re curious to see how James’ stats so far shape up to those of Ken Jennings, you can find them at A James Holzhauer vs. Ken Jennings Statistical Comparison.
James has reached 1,000 correct responses on the show and has moved to #2 all-time on that list! See who else has at least 300 on our 300 Club page!
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(Content continues below)
Correct response: What is Austria?
Did you know that you can now find game-by-game stats of everyone, including James, who has won 10 or more games on Jeopardy!, here on the site?
More information about Final Jeopardy:
David Kendall’s nationalanthems.info is an excellent source about national anthems around the world. Austria’s current anthem, “Land der Berge, Land am Strome”, adopted February 25, 1947, is purported to have had its tune been written by Mozart, but most scholars believe now that it is written by Johann Holzer.
The previous anthem was “Sei gesegnet ohne Ende”, to the tune of Haydn’s “Gott erhalte Franz den Kaiser”, the same tune as used by the Third Reich.
Note also that with the wording of the Final Jeopardy clue, the clue says the original anthem was by Haydn, not the current anthem. (When Clue of the Day was posted on the Jeopardy! website, a few concerned readers contacted me here at thejeopardyfan.com. The clue, as I see it, is correct.)
Since Alex Trebek’s diagnosis of stage 4 pancreatic cancer, many community members have been raising money. The Jeopardy! Fan Online Store is as well! All proceeds from any “Keep The Faith And We’ll Win” shirt sold will be donated to the Pancreatic Cancer Action Network. To date, over $370 has been raised.)
Looking to find out who won Jeopardy! today? Tonight’s results are below!
Scores going into Final:
James $41,612
Megan $12,200
Rob $8,400
Tonight’s results:
Rob $8,400 – $8,399 = $1 (What is Belgium?)
Megan $12,200 – $4,601 = $7,599 (What is Ger)
James $41,612 + $17,000 = $58,612 (31-day total: $2,382,583)
Scores after the Jeopardy! Round:
James $14,800
Rob $3,200
Megan $1,400
Opening break taken after: 15 clues
Daily Double locations:
1) WORLD FACTS $800 (5th pick)
James 4000 +4000 (Megan 0 Rob 0)
2) WHAT’S THE BIG IDEA? $1600 (4th pick)
James 16800 +9812 (Rob 3200 Megan 1400)
3) FILL IN THEIR DATES $800 (18th pick)
James 31412 +5000 (Megan 9400 Rob 7600)
Overall Daily Double Efficiency for this game: 174
Unplayed clues:
J! round: None!
DJ! Round: None!
Total $ Left On Board: $0
Game Stats:
James $26,000 Coryat, 32 correct, 1 incorrect, 52.63% in first on buzzer
Megan $12,200 Coryat, 12 correct, 1 incorrect, 21.05% in first on buzzer, 1/1 on rebound attempts
Rob $8,400 Coryat, 12 correct, 1 incorrect, 21.05% in first on buzzer, 1/1 on rebound attempts
Combined Coryat Score: $46,600
Lach Trash: $5,400 (on 4 Triple Stumpers)
Coryat lost to incorrect responses (less double-correct responses): $2,000
James Holzhauer, stats to date:
1,122 correct, 33 incorrect
31/34 on rebound attempts (on 65 rebound opportunities)
58.20% in first on buzzer (1018/1749)
68/72 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $629,783)
30/31 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $30,710
James Holzhauer, to win:
32 games: 96.826%
33: 93.759%
34: 93.520%
35: 91.521%
36: 89.586%
75: 37.971%
Avg. streak: 75.463 games.
(This is using the updated model and now takes into account performance on specific days of the week).
Tournament of Champions projections:
With a projected 71 regular-play games to go prior to the Tournament of Champions cutoff, after 500,000 simulations, our model shows:
James Holzhauer qualified 100.000% of the time.
Eric R. Backes qualified 93.7572% of the time.
Anneke Garcia qualified 78.317% of the time.
Lindsey Shultz qualified 51.498% of the time.
Dave Leffler qualified 28.631% of the time.
Jonathan Dinerstein qualified 20.676% of the time.
Andy’s Thoughts:
- James is $138,117 from Ken Jennings’ all-time regular-season total of $2,520,700.
- $58,612 is the 26th-highest regular play total of all time. James currently holds 22 of the top 26 single-game regular-play totals of all time.
- James has been correct on his last 25 Final Jeopardy! clues.
- The prediction model now gives James a 97.886% chance to win on Thursdays, up from 97.334%.
- The prediction model currently gives James a 93.403% chance of surpassing Ken Jennings’ total of $2,520,700, and a 50.054% chance of surpassing Brad Rutter’s all-time winnings total of $4,688,436. (At his current average win total, James would pass Ken on June 3 and Brad on July 26.)
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Holzhauer has been great for The Jeopardy! Fan. You should consider an Initial Public Offering…
James kind of reminds me of Alex Jacob, to an extent.
Speaking of Alex, does he still play poker?
Yes, he posted a list of his summer poker tourneys on twitter sometime last week.
I’m curious, the sidebar stats give James a 37.971% chance to win 75 games (beating Jennings), but then state that apparently the same methodology is predicting “Avg. streak: 75.463 games.”.
I assume 75.463 then is the 50-50 point, and he’s equally likely to fall below or above that? How can that be true at the same time as having only a 37.971% chance to win 75 games?
You are assuming a normal distribution where median equals mean (equals mode).
Yes, I stated my assumption up front. And I think it’s a reasonable assumption. If it doesn’t follow a normal distribution, then that would be very odd, and interesting to know why, in and of itself. It’s hard to reconcile the two stats in a meaningful way, which leads me to believe the methodology is flawed.
Neil:
It’s because of the fact that his chances of winning games in the future displays exponential decay. To give an example, the prediction model currently gives James a 10% chance of winning 108 more games (just because of the fact that he’s such a heavy favorite in each individual match. Comparing that to the fact that he’s also got a 10% chance of only winning 5 more games, the arithmetic mean of 5 and 108 is 56 (even though the exponential decay puts the 50% threshhold at 32-33 more games).
It seems then that using the arithmetic mean is meaningless with exponential decay. You’re essentially using two different models that way, that come up with different predictions of the length of his streak?
I’m also curious about the new day-of-the-week twist: aren’t multiple games taped per day? How could the day of broadcast be statistically relevant to win odds? Unless Fridays are always taped at the end of a long day, never at the beginning or middle (as just one hypothetical example).
It very much has meaning, and the same model informs both the average streak and the chances for the next game. People want to know what his chances are of winning the next game, and what his average streak is. Both are relevant.
And, yes, for the last eight years, Fridays have been taped as the 5th taping of a five-taping session. That’s precisely why “day of week” is relevant. (The producers even have their own maxim, “champions lose on Thursday” because it’s the game right after the lunch break.)
I didn’t understand why that would be an issue for him. Is it because he has so much money now that the bookmakers would be afraid of taking bets from him? He doesn’t seem like the kind of person who would automatically make gigantic bets if he didn’t before.
Casinos simply rig odds favoring the house. That’s only gambling in the entertainment sense of the word. Sports books respond dynamically to bets placed, so gamblers are betting against each other. James makes a living by betting in a way that slightly favors himself, which disadvantages others, which is fine and proper unless he attracts so much interest and following that what he does influences what others do. If people bet on a bettor instead of betting on teams, the book gets skewed and could, potentially, be deliberately manipulated. I think that’s the fear.
Gambling establishments aren’t generally comfortable with the concept of “professional gambler”. For one to consistently win, many must lose (or the house go broke). It might bespeak a flaw in the system, chicanery or consummate skill, but anything that discourages people from taking chances is bad for business.
Thanks for the clarification. That makes sense.