2020 College Championship – Semifinalists

We’ve gone from 15 down to 9; it’s time for the semifinals in this year’s College Championship! The semifinals have been announced, which means I can plug the quarterfinal stats into my trusty prediction model and make some predictions which I’m reasonably sure that the tournament contestants will have a good laugh over!

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Monday, April 13, 2020:

Tyler Combs Senior, Indiana University Greenfield, Indiana 29 correct, 2 incorrect 2/2 on rebound attempts (on 3 rebound opportunities) 47.37% in first on buzzer (27/57) 1/1 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $3,400) 0/1 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $27,000 Wins SF: 55.421% of the time. 1st: 29.230% of the time. 2nd: 11.240% of the time. 3rd: 14.952% of the time.

Kayla Kalhor Sophomore, University of Florida Longwood, Florida 20 correct, 4 incorrect 0/1 on rebound attempts (on 5 rebound opportunities) 36.84% in first on buzzer (21/57) 0/1 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$3,000) 1/1 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $15,000 Wins SF: 13.402% of the time. 1st: 1.176% of the time. 2nd: 3.503% of the time. 3rd: 8.724% of the time.

Beni Keown Freshman, Northwestern University Evanston, Illinois 25 correct, 4 incorrect 1/1 on rebound attempts (on 3 rebound opportunities) 43.86% in first on buzzer (25/57) 0/2 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$6,000) 1/1 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $20,800 Wins SF: 31.176% of the time. 1st: 8.845% of the time. 2nd: 9.881% of the time. 3rd: 12.450% of the time.

Andy’s Thoughts: The prediction model favors Tyler in this one, who was very dominant in Double Jeopardy! on Friday. Tyler would be even more of a favorite in any other semifinal, but Beni and Kayla should make for a very exciting game. I would expect this game to have the highest Combined Coryat of the three semifinals.

Joe Coker Junior, Hendrix College Conway, Arkansas 18 correct, 2 incorrect 0/0 on rebound attempts (on 3 rebound opportunities) 31.58% in first on buzzer (18/57) 1/1 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $5,000) 1/1 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $11,400 Wins SF: 31.206% of the time. 1st: 5.734% of the time. 2nd: 7.062% of the time. 3rd: 18.409% of the time.

Londyn Lorenz Sophomore, University of Mississippi Perryville, Missouri 26 correct, 3 incorrect 1/1 on rebound attempts (on 6 rebound opportunities) 47.37% in first on buzzer (27/57) 0/0 on Daily Doubles 1/1 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $19,400 Wins SF: 58.949% of the time. 1st: 18.299% of the time. 2nd: 23.765% of the time. 3rd: 16.885% of the time.

Nibir Sarma Sophomore, University of Minnesota Eden Prairie, Minnesota 17 correct, 2 incorrect 0/0 on rebound attempts (on 3 rebound opportunities) 29.82% in first on buzzer (17/57) 0/1 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$2,500) 1/1 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $12,200 Wins SF: 9.845% of the time. 1st: 0.326% of the time. 2nd: 2.056% of the time. 3rd: 7.463% of the time.

Andy’s Thoughts: Joe may have had the highest score in the quarterfinals, but Londyn had the better game overall, making her the favorite here to make the finals. Nibir is going to need to catch a break or two in order to make the finals.

Nathaniel Miller Sophomore, Yale University Miami, Florida 27 correct, 3 incorrect 3/3 on rebound attempts (on 5 rebound opportunities) 42.11% in first on buzzer (24/57) 1/2 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$1,200) 1/1 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $21,800 Wins SF: 91.480% of the time. 1st: 36.048% of the time. 2nd: 40.215% of the time. 3rd: 15.216% of the time.

Marshall Comeaux Sophomore, University of Texas at Austin Dallas, Texas 19 correct, 6 incorrect 1/2 on rebound attempts (on 9 rebound opportunities) 35.09% in first on buzzer (20/57) 2/2 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $3,000) 1/1 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $9,400 Wins SF: 4.650% of the time. 1st: 0.223% of the time. 2nd: 1.374% of the time. 3rd: 3.052% of the time.

Xiaoke Ying Sophomore, University of Southern California Arcadia, California 11 correct, 1 incorrect 1/1 on rebound attempts (on 4 rebound opportunities) 17.54% in first on buzzer (10/57) 0/0 on Daily Doubles 1/1 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $6,400 Wins SF: 3.870% of the time. 1st: 0.119% of the time. 2nd: 0.904% of the time. 3rd: 2.848% of the time.

Andy’s Thoughts: Nathaniel was dominant in his quarterfinal, whereas both Marshall and Xiaoke needed Final Jeopardy! in order to advance to the semis. The numbers give Nathaniel a huge advantage here in this third semifinal, which makes him the favorite to win the tournament at this point. His conservative Daily Double play should also play to his advantage here; I can’t see him giving either of his opponents an opening.

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