Editorial Note: I am aware that not everyone will agree with the decision that I’ve made to publish the following article. While the concerns that many of you have raised are valid, I feel that as Jeopardy! becomes seen as more of a sport, I think it’s important that I take the opportunity to publish this before any of the games have actually happened. If you’re at all worried about feeling undue pressure from having read anyone else’s assessment of things before taping, I would invite you to wait until after taping to read it; the article will still be here. Additionally, if you do choose to read the article before taping, I would request that you respect the wishes of those who might choose to wait. Thank you.
With the Tournament of Champions on the horizon, taping next week, I have decided to put out a pre-taping Tournament of Champions preview.
I’ve obviously only previewed the 26 players in the field that are known; the 27th won’t be known until February 22. In my prediction model itself, I have made a placeholder player, rated as an average Tournament of Champions player for the event. (Their odds are +3000.)
This is the same model that I began using for the 2019 All-Star Games; the base is still based upon how a player has performed on low-value (generally, the top 3 rows on the board, but in the case of Justin Bolsen’s original games and Ike Barinholtz’s games, adjustments have been made) and high value (generally, the bottom two rows on the board). “Net” values are used, so the total number of incorrect responses are deducted from the total number of correct ones. The model has been tweaked over the years to better account for Daily Double play, taking into account a player’s average gain per game on Daily Doubles, as well as a player’s performance in Final Jeopardy. The amount of variance used by the model is a factor of both how consistently a player plays, their Daily Double bet sizing, and their Final Jeopardy performance.
One thing that is really important to remember: at this level, the overall variance is so high that everyone is showing up with somewhere between a 20 and 50 percent chance to win each game—that is the nature of high-level Jeopardy! in 2024. Nothing is guaranteed and there are going to be surprises, and regardless of what number is by your name, just by making it to the Tournament of Champions, you are an elite player.
Each player’s odds, per the prediction model, of victory are also listed (displayed in American odds notation). Please note that such odds should be for entertainment purposes only.
1) Cris Pannullo: +750
Cris is the #1 seed and the favorite to take victory in this Tournament of Champions. However, at a level where the variance is high enough such that even the top players are a 50-50 proposition to take victory, Cris is still only just over 11% to win this event. If he does have an Achilles heel, it might be Final Jeopardy; Cris was only 64% in his run in Final Jeopardy.
2) Ray Lalonde: +1700
While Ray is #1 in the field in Final Jeopardy—he was 86% in his run on Clue #61—some of the other top seeds were slightly stronger Coryat-wise. However, Ray is no slouch at the bottom of the board, and I think he’d need an unfavorable draw to be bounced in the opening round.
3) Ben Chan: +1100
Ben is second favorite in the field after Cris— after all, all of Ben’s victories were runaways! While some of the other players in this field have done better overall on Daily Doubles, Ben’s most dominant win came against Hannah Wilson. A final between Ben and Cris could be absolutely epic.
4) Hannah Wilson: +1400
Only two players in this field are in the top 10 in this field in each of the prediction model’s areas of normal clue performance, Daily Double performance, and Final Jeopardy performance: Hannah and Luigi de Guzman. That itself lifts Hannah to one of the favorites in this event to do well. The game she lost, though, might give pundits a little bit of pause—it was to a very dominant performance by a returning Ben Chan.
5) Stephen Webb: +4800
Stephen’s standing in the prediction model is certainly harmed by the fact that his opponents kept finding Daily Doubles in the second half of his run. Additionally, Stephen was only 3-for-9 in Final Jeopardy; he may need to improve upon that, or he might go the way of many 5 seeds in March Madness.
6) Troy Meyer: +1200
Troy is the joint-third favorite in this event, and it’s easy to see why. He’s been one of the top quizzers in the United States for years, and his stats from his games rate among some of the all-time Jeopardy! greats. One thing that might hold him back: the buzzer. Troy was sub-60% on the buzzer in his regular run. However, if he improves on those numbers, watch out!
7) Suresh Krishnan: +10000
Suresh’s run came at the end of the season when the payouts had dropped significantly, which I think hurts his standing in the prediction model. If he’s in contention, though, going into Final, Final Jeopardy is something that has worked out in his favor—and you never know, that could happen in the ToC!
8) Luigi de Guzman: +1300
Luigi is one of many players whose run ended much too soon. Luigi’s attempt numbers were routinely above 50, which should bode very well for his chances of a deep run in this tournament. Additionally, the circumstances behind his defeat—not making a cover bet in Final Jeopardy—might give an astute opponent more to consider strategy-wise in a potential key moment in the tournament.
9) Ben Goldstein: +18000
It was actually this result from the prediction model that made me wonder if I should publish in the first place. (In the end, clearly, I have decided to.) Much like Suresh, Ben’s run came at the end of the season and that may have hurt his statistics a little bit. Ben’s stats were also hurt by the fact that he was only 1-for-6 in Final Jeopardy. But he did win 5 games, and “knowing how to win, even if the wins were ugly” is an important skill! (Survive and advance.)
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Ike Barinholtz: +4900
For the next seven players, I won’t be giving a seed, as these players are all “auto-bids” into the event.
Here’s the thing about Ike Barinholtz: in winning last year’s Celebrity Jeopardy, he had supreme buzzer skill and aggression on the Daily Doubles—and it’s really tough to discount that. I’d be surprised to see Ike advance out of the quarterfinals, but the raw numbers say that Ike is no slouch, either. I think he’ll at least be competitive, even if he doesn’t win.
Justin Bolsen: +7900
Justin, who advanced through the High School Reunion Tournament, had a couple of high-value Daily Doubles go awry, and that might have hurt his numbers a bit in the prediction model. I think he’ll play well but I’d be surprised if he advanced out of the opening round.
Josh Saak: +2900
After coming agonizingly close to the 30th Tournament of Champions, Josh Saak advanced through Champions Wildcard to the 31st. His inability to find Daily Doubles for most of Champions Wildcard became a source of amusement to some—that may need to turn around for him to make a run in the Tournament of Champions.
Emily Sands: +2300
Emily also came agonizingly close to a Tournament of Champions, advancing along with Josh via Champions Wildcard; Emily’s aggression on Daily Doubles make her primed to make a deep run into this ToC, especially if she gets a favorable opening draw.
Nick Cascone: +5800
The first 1-time champion to qualify for a Tournament of Champions when he made it through Champions Wildcard, Nick is a solid player, but he also doesn’t seem to have any major strengths and glaring weaknesses—and a prediction model tuned more to high-variance play might not appreciate that as much.
Yungsheng Wang: +2400
The prediction model is definitely a Yungsheng fan; it’s rated Yungsheng in the top 10 on both Daily Doubles and Final Jeopardy—if Yungsheng can get to them first, some of the top seeds might be in trouble! Yungsheng’s strong play at the bottom of the board will also help him in this sort of an event.
Juveria Zaheer: +1200
Juveria is the #1 player on Daily Doubles in this event; she has successfully converted all 5 of her five-figure Daily Double attempts. That being said: Daily Doubles are why current high-level Jeopardy! has the variance it does—her games may become a race to the Daily Doubles, with the winner being the player who gets to the last two first.
18) Matthew Marcus: +2500
The 2023 London Times crossword puzzle champion enters this competition with some strengths and weaknesses. He’s very strong in Final Jeopardy and is in the top 10 on normal clue performance. However, his average gain on Daily Doubles in his initial run is just $800 a game. That will need to turn around in order for Matthew to make a deep tournament run.
19) David Sibley: +6500
One of the problems with this sort of a prediction model is that there’s no way for it to account for the possibility for a player to improve considerably between regular play and the Tournament of Champions. And I think, of this 27-player field, David has a shot to be “Most Improved”. I definitely think that David will 100% be a tough out in this event.
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20) Yogesh Raut: +1400
I don’t think it’s a surprise to anyone that the prediction model thinks Yogesh is the most likely 3-day champion to make a deep run. Tournament of Champions-level knowledge will play to Yogesh’s strengths; my only concern is his ability to handle the strategic side of the game at a top level. If Yogesh does make a deep run, it will be good for keeping the show in the public eye—as, unfortunately, there will be people tuning in to cheer against him. I could also see myself saying “This match could have been a semifinal” about Yogesh’s match when the pairings are released in a couple of weeks.
21) Sean McShane: +2100
Sean’s one of the top players in this field in terms of knowledge, and could go far if the Daily Doubles and Final Jeopardy break his way. I’m sure he’d be very interested in a rematch with Ray Lalonde as well!
22) Emmett Stanton: +6200
Much like Nick Cascone above, Emmett is a solid player with no real overarching strengths or weaknesses. Again, much like Nick, the prediction model has trouble predicting a deep run for a lower-variance player like Emmett. But, as I said in the opening—at this level, everyone’s showing up with a 20-50% chance of winning every game. You never know what will happen!
23) Jake DeArruda: +2500
Jake’s strengths lie very much in his Daily Double performance, behind only Juveria in how much he averages a game on them. Unfortunately, he’s also the only player in the field to be 0-for Final Jeopardy thus far, which hurts his standing a little bit in the prediction model. I could definitely see Jake at least making it into the semifinals.
24) Brian Henegar: +3200
Brian is above-average in terms of regular clue play, but below average on Daily Doubles and was only 50% in Final Jeopardy. He certainly could pull off an upset, but the game’s four major clues will probably need to work out in his favor for that to happen.
25) Melissa Klapper: +7200
I would like to remind everyone that Maureen O’Neil, the 21st seed in last year’s Tournament of Champions, beat superchampion Ryan Long in the quarterfinals. Every single player deserves to be here, and every single player has a chance of winning every time out. Even Melissa is strong enough of a player to pull off an upset if things break in her direction.
26) Jared Watson: +6200
Jared’s numbers in the model were hurt be his being one of only two players to be net negative on Daily Doubles in the field. If those can turn around for him, we may see an upset and Jared in the semifinals, especially if the draw works out in his favor.
27) Kevin Belle: +15000
Kevin’s overall numbers were hurt a little bit by having to face Hannah Wilson; however, his highest Daily Double bet in his overall run was just $2,400. That being said: Maureen O’Neil won last year from the 21st spot—anything can happen, especially if Kevin ends up in an early game and the field is still a little bit jittery.
Finals length odds:
3 games: +640
4 games: +300
5 games: +210
6 games: +310
7 games: +780
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Andy,
What are the TOC quarterfinal matches
To be quite honest, there’s a chance the show doesn’t even know yet.
I’m pretty sure you have a typo at the beginning of the write-up for Emmett Stanton, saying ‘Mike like Nick’ instead of ‘Much like Nick”.
So, with a 27 player field, I guess we’ll have 9 Quarterfinal matches and 3 Semifinal matches and there will be no byes?
If I may offer a bit of a contrarian take, can people offer their opinions about the new format/structure that the ToC seems to be adopting as a permanent fixture? By that I mean the 24-27 person field and no wild cards into the semis. And of course the multi game (best of 7) final. My thoughts are that Andy pointed out how Jeopardy! is becoming more like a sport, or at least a recurring competition, in many respects. He also stressed how the structure of the tournament leads to a lot of variance. So, why not just go back to the old ToC with a few tweaks? Namely, this would start with their return to 15 competitors. I’m not sure what enormous appeal there is from expanding the field to 27, i.e. 12 more players that would not have made it in the old format. You then go back to wild cards, which are good, because they variance reducing. Instead of nine quarterfinal games, you’d only have five, but you could offset that by adding in some more games in the semis…i.e. have each be a two game total point affair. Again, more variance reduction here. And then finals are the one thing of the new format/structure that I think they probably got right, so leave that as is. I think that going back to the prior structure with a few of these tweaks would just reduce the likelihood of fluke upsets, get the truly best players to make the semis and/or finals and then we’d find out who really is the best in any given season. But I’m certainly happy to hear people argue the other side of this one.
You say wild cards are good.
However, the people in charge disagree.
The show thinks that wild cards are too counterintuitive for the average viewer, because it raises questions of “Why didn’t they make the standard cover bet? How stupid is this contestant?” in the home viewer who might not realize it’s a tournament quarterfinal and that there are four wild cards at play. (Even though Alex would remind viewers of this.)
Thus, they’ve been removed.
If it is Cris, Ray and Ben in the Finals, it will no doubt be epic and might end up going the full seven games.