Welcome to this week’s Mailbag column. It’s shorter than usual, because there appears to just be one thing on everyone’s mind today.
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Defending The Prediction Model
What feels like half my readership asks:
How could you rank Ike Barinholtz anything other than 27th of 27?
Because buzzer timing is an important skill. And, in having won Season 1 of Celebrity Jeopardy, Ike demonstrated that skill in spades.
It’s not as if Ike is somehow terrible at this show. He passed the regular test and had a Zoom audition. He is a LearnedLeague member—and has been for years—with above-average statistics in many categories.
I also have to ask: I’ve been accused of being disrespectful in my preview. Is it not somehow disrespectful to Ike to claim that he is not worthy of a spot simply by having advanced out of Celebrity Jeopardy? Or does it become okay to disrespect Ike because he’s a celebrity?
In fact: I’m going to defend my model further and make the prediction that Ike Barinholtz will not have the lowest Coryat score in the field in the quarterfinals of this tournament—even moreso if there is a good amount of pop culture in his quarterfinal.
And if you’re a player in the event who feels disrespected by my preview: I hope you go out and put egg on my face this week!
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Dang it! I had written a semi-long, thoughtful post and was merely reading through it for typos when my computer ate it!
I don’t feel like thinking it out again, so I am going to try to hit the highlights . . .
1) I totally agree with you that the nay-sayers about Ike Barinholtz are being disrespectful to him [and to you].
2) I do not see how any of your predictions could be deemed disrespectful to anyone — analysis is analysis — they do know, don’t they, that only one will win and thus ALL the others will be LOSERS! [Which was not even your implication, nor really mine, I am just being facetious.]
3) I did not know Ike’s LearnedLeague background. I wonder if his original opponents did 😨. Anyway, thanks for the information about that and his buzzer skills. However, I am curious as to whether buzzer statistics are just “in first” and “not in first” or have actual time [fractions of seconds?] associated with each instance [and/or an average time]. Getting in first would be easier if your opponents happen to have slower physical response times, but especially so if they are below-average quick to even THINK OF (and/or be confident enough of) a possible correct response in the first place [which happens far more often in Celebrity Jeopardy! than regular Jeopardy!, especially in earlier games].
3) I would expect that a lot of underlying disbelief at a possible respectable showing by ANY Celebrity Jeopardy! Winner in the “regular” ToC is because of the perception that the majority of the clues on Celebrity Jeopardy! are easier than the majority of the clues on regular Jeopardy! That did seem to me to be the case (both years). Of course that doesn’t mean that at least the winner couldn’t have handled more difficult clues, just that they hadn’t really had a chance to prove themselves capable.
4) Again, I agree that Ike Barinholtz deserves a chance at ToC and that he has as good a chance as several others of making it past the first round. In fact, if Jeopardy! continues to have 2nd chance tournaments, much less “everybody who won once gets another chance” tournaments, I think they should invite any Celebrity player who made a good showing — at least came in 2nd or 3rd, maybe even that advanced from their first round (though probably not).
Does anyone else think that Celebrity Jeopardy! clues are on average easier than regular Jeopardy! clues are on average?