We’re less than three weeks from the start of the Tournament of Champions, and one spot is left in that field. These 27 returning champs will play off for that spot in the ToC.
For this event (because why not?), Using each player’s regular play statistics, I’ve run my prediction model (the same one run in my Tournament of Champions preview yesterday). The odds of each player advancing to the Tournament of Champions are also given (in American odds style). Please remember that all odds are for entertainment purposes only.
Monday, February 5, 2024:
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Kate Campolieta (23) (+4700) Simsbury, Connecticut  33 correct, 10 incorrect 2/3 on rebound attempts (on 10 rebound opportunities) 31.86% in first on buzzer (36/113) 1/2 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $900) 0/2 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $9,600 Kate won a single game in July before losing to fan-favorite Anji Nyquist. |
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Mira Hayward (5) (+2400) Portland, Oregon  60 correct, 14 incorrect 4/5 on rebound attempts (on 12 rebound opportunities) 37.43% in first on buzzer (64/171) 1/2 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$400) 2/3 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $13,067 Mira, a 2-game champion from February, had some success on high-valued clues in her initial run; this may bode well for her going deep in this competition. |
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Jesse Chin (14) (+3500) Bayside, New York  28 correct, 6 incorrect 4/4 on rebound attempts (on 14 rebound opportunities) 21.05% in first on buzzer (24/114) 2/4 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $3,000) 1/2 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $12,000 Jesse struggled on the buzzer in his initial games back in May but still had a reasonably strong Coryat. |
Overall Thoughts: Chances of winning: Kate Campolieta: 29.818%; Mira Hayward: 37.399%; Jesse Chin: 32.783%
Mira is favored to take this one, but if Jesse can get over his buzzer struggles from his initial games, he may take victory here.
Tuesday, February 6, 2024:
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Deb Bilodeau (20) (+1800) San Francisco, California  49 correct, 9 incorrect 3/3 on rebound attempts (on 7 rebound opportunities) 44.25% in first on buzzer (50/113) 3/3 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $4,100) 1/2 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $16,900 I think that many people will focus on Matt, having just come through Second Chance; I think those people will discount Deb, who has some very strong stats. Since their loss back in April came from a questionable Final Jeopardy bet from second place, here’s hoping they have shored up that part of their game for their return. |
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Crystal Zhao (26) (+5100) Bloomington, Minnesota  35 correct, 8 incorrect 2/3 on rebound attempts (on 9 rebound opportunities) 31.58% in first on buzzer (36/114) 1/2 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $2,400) 0/2 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $10,700 Crystal was a 1-game champ from April whose clue selection stats had the dreaded 1† in her title defense. She may need to get better at hunting for Daily Doubles to make a good run in this. |
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Matt Harvey (11) (+1500) Providence, Rhode Island  85 correct, 12 incorrect 7/8 on rebound attempts (on 23 rebound opportunities) 35.09% in first on buzzer (80/228) 4/5 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $12,400) 2/4 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $16,350 I think many fans will be expecting Matt to follow up on his Second Chance win with a strong performance. |
Overall Thoughts: Chances of winning: Deb Bilodeau: 36.335%; Crystal Zhao: 24.643%; Matt Harvey: 39.022%
I expect to see a great battle between Deb and Matt in this one.
Wednesday, February 7, 2024:
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Justin White (21) (+5000) Overland Park, Kansas  33 correct, 9 incorrect 2/2 on rebound attempts (on 4 rebound opportunities) 31.53% in first on buzzer (35/111) 2/3 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $1,200) 2/2 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $7,600 Justin won a single game back in July. |
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Lisa Sriken (8) (+4300) New York, New York  59 correct, 24 incorrect 3/4 on rebound attempts (on 8 rebound opportunities) 42.86% in first on buzzer (72/168) 3/5 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $4,000) 1/2 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $8,333 Lisa was a fan favorite in her 3-game run in March. |
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Taylor Clagett (6) (+2900) Chesapeake Beach, Maryland  55 correct, 15 incorrect 1/3 on rebound attempts (on 16 rebound opportunities) 33.92% in first on buzzer (58/171) 3/6 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $5,000) 2/3 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $10,267 Taylor was a 2-game champion from the final week of Season 39. |
Overall Thoughts: Chances of winning: Justin White: 30.709%; Lisa Sriken: 32.409%; Taylor Clagett: 36.882%
I think Taylor will take victory in this one, but this one might also see a lower-than-average Combined Coryat overall.
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Thursday, February 8, 2024:
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Alex Gordon (3) (+1300) Somers, New York  78 correct, 12 incorrect 2/4 on rebound attempts (on 13 rebound opportunities) 46.20% in first on buzzer (79/171) 3/4 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$2,000) 3/3 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $16,200 I think that Alex will go a lot farther in this tournament than a lot of people realize. He had two runaways and would have had a third had it not been for a single Daily Double. (Which I maintain that he 100% played correctly, even though the results did not bear out in his favor.) |
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Ed Petersen (25) (+5100) Orlando, Florida  62 correct, 20 incorrect 1/2 on rebound attempts (on 7 rebound opportunities) 43.79% in first on buzzer (74/169) 1/3 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$1,600) 2/3 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $10,933 Ed advanced to the quarterfinals after winning the Play-In Game on Friday evening on TuneIn. |
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Suzanne Goldlust (18) (+3300) Reston, Virginia  33 correct, 6 incorrect 1/1 on rebound attempts (on 11 rebound opportunities) 28.07% in first on buzzer (32/114) 3/4 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $1,900) 1/2 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $11,000 Suzanne was a 1-day champion before she lost to 5-time champ Ben Goldstein. |
Overall Thoughts: Chances of winning: Alex Gordon: 42.389%; Ed Petersen: 26.457%; Suzanne Goldlust: 31.154%
Alex is one of the overall favorites to advance to the ToC, especially if he gets through Ed (who’s had a game of buzzer experience that taping day) and Suzanne (whose loss came to a 5-time champion.)
Friday, February 9, 2024:
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Emma Hill Kepron (9) (+2800) Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada  48 correct, 8 incorrect 4/5 on rebound attempts (on 15 rebound opportunities) 26.32% in first on buzzer (45/171) 3/3 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $6,000) 1/3 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $13,533 Emma was a 2-day champion from April. Her second win came in a situation where she didn’t make a cover bet from the lead, so that might be something to remember in a close game in this event. |
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Jesse Matheny (27) (+6900) Huntington, Indiana  39 correct, 13 incorrect 0/0 on rebound attempts (on 4 rebound opportunities) 39.82% in first on buzzer (45/113) 1/5 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$8,200) 0/2 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $11,300 Jesse was a 1-game champion from April who might be hoping that Daily Doubles go to his opponents instead! |
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Patrick Curran (2) (+1000) Washington, D.C.  68 correct, 9 incorrect 4/5 on rebound attempts (on 15 rebound opportunities) 36.84% in first on buzzer (63/171) 5/6 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $18,800) 2/3 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $14,667 Patrick is another player I think has a very good chance of advancing to the Tournament of Champions. |
Overall Thoughts: Chances of winning: Emma Hill Kepron: 30.958%; Jesse Matheny: 22.640%; Patrick Curran: 46.402%
The prediction model thinks Patrick is the overall favorite; I’m expecting a good start out of him to close out the week.
Monday, February 12, 2024:
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Sriram Krishnan (16) (+3100) Falls Church, Virginia  41 correct, 5 incorrect 2/3 on rebound attempts (on 11 rebound opportunities) 33.33% in first on buzzer (38/114) 2/3 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $1,400) 0/2 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $18,300 Sriram was a 1-day champion from December with a strong average Coryat. |
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Donna Matturri (4) (+4100) Columbus, Ohio  53 correct, 11 incorrect 1/1 on rebound attempts (on 8 rebound opportunities) 33.92% in first on buzzer (58/171) 1/2 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $0) 2/3 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $13,200 Donna’s two wins from June saw multiple instances where she seemed disinterested in playing to win; that sort of gameplay likely won’t make it far in Champions Wildcard. |
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Dan Wohl (13) (+1100) Brooklyn, New York  40 correct, 3 incorrect 4/4 on rebound attempts (on 13 rebound opportunities) 30.09% in first on buzzer (34/113) 2/3 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $9,500) 1/2 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $16,300 Dan showed great strategy in defeating Matthew Marcus, then played more conservatively in his title defense. If he plays like his first game, a run to the finals isn’t out of the question. |
Overall Thoughts: Chances of winning: Sriram Krishnan: 29.914%; Donna Matturri: 26.100%; Dan Wohl: 43.986%
Dan is another player who’s been overlooked by many going into this; I expect him to win at least one.
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Tuesday, February 13, 2024:
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Long Nguyen (12) (+2300) Las Vegas, Nevada  77 correct, 15 incorrect 5/7 on rebound attempts (on 17 rebound opportunities) 33.33% in first on buzzer (76/228) 4/5 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $4,400) 3/4 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $13,100 Long became the favorite in the eyes of many after his Second Chance performance. Interestingly, the computer isn’t as sold on Long’s chances. |
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Kat Jepson (17) (+1800) Roanoke, Virginia  33 correct, 6 incorrect 2/2 on rebound attempts (on 6 rebound opportunities) 28.95% in first on buzzer (33/114) 2/2 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $8,000) 1/2 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $12,600 Kat had a strong debut before losing to Ben Chan. |
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Nicole Rudolph (19) (+2700) Williston Park, New York  37 correct, 7 incorrect 2/3 on rebound attempts (on 12 rebound opportunities) 32.74% in first on buzzer (37/113) 1/2 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $0) 0/2 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $14,000 Nicole was a 1-game champion; she had some good bottom-of-the-board stats but struggled in Final Jeopardy. |
Overall Thoughts: Chances of winning: Long Nguyen: 32.361%; Kat Jepson: 36.483%; Nicole Rudolph: 31.156%
This will be a very tightly contested and competitive game that may be decided by who finds the Daily Doubles.
Wednesday, February 14, 2024:
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Vince Bacani (22) (+2200) Montreal, Quebec, Canada  49 correct, 10 incorrect 3/6 on rebound attempts (on 11 rebound opportunities) 42.86% in first on buzzer (48/112) 1/3 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$3,201) 1/2 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $17,200 Vince was a 1-day champion in January with a strong average Coryat. |
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Ilhana Redzovic (7) (+2700) Chicago, Illinois  50 correct, 11 incorrect 4/6 on rebound attempts (on 16 rebound opportunities) 28.65% in first on buzzer (49/171) 2/3 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $5,800) 1/3 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $11,267 Ilhana had some strong strategic play in her two victories from late May. |
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Elliott Kim (15) (+1800) Los Angeles, California  39 correct, 8 incorrect 4/4 on rebound attempts (on 14 rebound opportunities) 32.46% in first on buzzer (37/114) 2/4 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $7,100) 0/2 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $11,800 Elliott had one really strong game and one much weaker game back in July. |
Overall Thoughts: Chances of winning: Vince Bacani: 33.458%; Ilhana Redzovic: 30.465%; Elliott Kim: 36.077%
This should be the second consecutive all-out battle between three players. All three of these players are quite good.
Thursday, February 15, 2024:
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Diandra D’Alessio (10) (+8700) Montreal, Quebec, Canada  38 correct, 7 incorrect 5/6 on rebound attempts (on 19 rebound opportunities) 20.47% in first on buzzer (35/171) 1/1 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $400) 1/3 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $8,000 Diandra was a 2-game champion from May. |
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James Tyler (24) (+3000) Blandon, Pennsylvania  32 correct, 4 incorrect 2/2 on rebound attempts (on 9 rebound opportunities) 26.32% in first on buzzer (30/114) 2/2 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $4,000) 0/2 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $13,600 James was a 1-day champion from July; one thing to note was that he didn’t make a cover bet from the lead in his win. |
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David Bederman (1) (+1400) Los Angeles, California  61 correct, 7 incorrect 6/6 on rebound attempts (on 14 rebound opportunities) 31.95% in first on buzzer (54/169) 4/5 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $9,000) 2/3 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $14,467 David, the highest-winning 2 game champ in this bracket, had a pair of good victories. |
Overall Thoughts: Chances of winning: Diandra D’Alessio: 22.095%; James Tyler: 33.555%; David Bederman: 44.350%
I’m expecting that David will have a good victory, like his pair of victories in regular play.
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I’m just wondering why does the prediction model think Kat is more likely to advance over Long?
The stats from the game of Kat’s that did not include Ben Chan included +$8,000 on Daily Doubles and 11 correct responses in the bottom two rows of the board.
Kat is a very strong player who is very capable of giving anyone in this field a run for their money.
It’s like trying to discount someone’s Jeopardy! skill because they lost to James Holzhauer.
My Predictions for the 9 Quarterfinal matchups are as follows:
#1 – Mira Hayward – I say this based on her winning 2 games and each of her opponents only winning 1 game each. None of the 3 in this game were monster killers. Though this game could clearly go any way and to any of the 3 players
#2 – Matt Harvey – I’ll go with Matt here because of his recent experience in winning a Second Chance competition (that I saw him win his initial game that aired on January 4th/taped December 5th) and due to the fact that his initial loss on Jeopardy was to Cris Pannullo. Crystal Zhao defeated a tough 2 game winner in Sharon Stone, only to be defeated by 3 game Champion Brian Henegar. Deb Bilodeau could put up a strong fight as well.
#3 – Lisa Sriken – Lisa was a strong and popular player that was defeated by a strong 2 game winner in Sharon Stone. Justin White lost to a strong 2 day Champion in Ittai Sopher and Taylor Clagett was a 2 game winner in his own right, so I do see this as a close match that could be won by any of the 3.
#4 – Alex Gordon – I’ll go with Alex here due to his 2 wins that both came in Runaway fashion. Ed Peterson has a little more recent experience by getting to play in a Play In Game and Suzanne Goldlust won her game in a Runaway fashion, only to lose to 5 game Champion Ben Goldstein.
#5 – Patrick Curran – I’ll go with Patrick here because he was a 2 game champion that took down an extremely talented 2 game champion in Lloyd Sy. Emma Hill Kepron won 2 games also and she has a chance here as well. Jesse Matheny won $2600 when he won, so my confidence level isn’t too high here for him.
6 – Donna Matturi – she was a 2 game winner that defeated 5 game champion Ben Goldstein. It was a tough choice for me though as 1 game Champion Dan Wohl defeated a really good 4 game winner in Matthew Marcus. Dan won $26,799 in his runaway as well, so this was a tough game for me to choose. Sriram Krishnan did win his 1 game in runaway fashion.
7 – Long Nguyen – Long lost his initial game to 8 game Champion Stephen Webb and recently put on an amazing performance (though a bit unsteady) in Second Chance and he’s willing to go for it and therefore my selection. Kat Jepson was Ben Chan’s first victim and Nicole Rudolph lost to 2 game champ Lisa Sriken, so if either of those 2 can keep Long away from the Daily Double’s, they have a chance.
8 – Ilhana Redzovic – I’m taking Ilhana here on the strength of her defeating a tough 2 game champ in Diandra D’Alessio (playing in Quarterfinal 9) and then being defeated by 3 game champ Jared Watson.
Elliott Kim won $24,400 in his runaway, so he’ll be a tough out. And then there’s Vince Bacani to fill out this match.
#9 – David Bederman – 2 game champion that defeated a tough 2 day champion in Daniel Moore. Diandra D’Alessio won 2 games as well and she’ll be tough. James Tyler defeated a tough 2 game winner in Alex Gordon, so this game is no gimme.
Here’s to an exciting Champions Wildcard Group 2. It should be good!
Game 1: Mira Hayward
Game 2: Matt Harvey
Game 3: Taylor Clagett
Game 4: Alex Gordon
Game 5: Patrick Curran
Game 6: Dan Wohl
Game 7: Long Nguyen
Game 8: Elliott Kim
Game 9: David Bederman
Group 2 Quarterfinal Predictions:
Game 1 – Mira Hayward
Game 2 – Matt Harvey
Game 3 – Taylor Clagett
Game 4 – Alex Gordon
Game 5 – Patrick Curran
Game 6 – Dan Wohl
Game 7 – Long Nguyen
Game 8 – Elliott Kim
Game 9 – David Bederman
I read somewhere that the TOC has already been taped.
You are aware these episodes aren’t live, right?
Being that we’re 8 days from the airing of the first quarterfinal, the tournament had better be taped by now…
Yes, I am aware. I just was hoping the matchups would be posted by now.
I went 2 of 9 in my predictions. I only got Mira right in winning Quarterfinal #1 and Alex Gordon right in winning Quarterfinal #4.