2024 Jeopardy! Invitational Tournament: Quarter-Finals Preview

The ToC is over, and it is now time for the final tournament airing in syndication in 2024: the Jeopardy! Invitational Tournament. (And yes, I mean 2024; after this tournament, we’ll have 32-33 weeks of regular play and 6 weeks of summer encore presentations before the next postseason!)

Here are the quarterfinal pairings. As always, the prediction model has given odds corresponding with each player’s chances of victory. The winner will be receiving $100,000 and a spot in the ABC primetime Jeopardy! Masters competition in May.

It should be noted that both Victoria Groce’s and Brandon Blackwell’s numbers in the prediction model have been given adjustments, in light of their proven significant improvement since their respective appearances on the show.

Wednesday, March 20:

Dan Pawson +3800 Arlington, Virginia 333 correct, 43 incorrect 13/15 on rebound attempts (on 81 rebound opportunities) 35.46% in first on buzzer (323/911) 16/22 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $52,878) 7/16 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $14,225

Pam Mueller +8000 Chicago, Illinois 281 correct, 43 incorrect 15/22 on rebound attempts (on 71 rebound opportunities) 28.86% in first on buzzer (271/939) 10/13 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $20,000*) 6/15 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $12,718* * pre-2001 dollar values adjusted to current dollar values; All-Star Games Coryat scores adjusted to reflect players only played half boards.

Andrew He +2400 Concord, California 474 correct, 65 incorrect 33/39 on rebound attempts (on 89 rebound opportunities) 32.24% in first on buzzer (441/1368) 27/35 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $110,000) 11/24 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $15,517

Overall Thoughts: This should be an interesting start to the tournament, with a ToC winner in Dan Pawson facing off against tournament regular Pam Mueller and Masters Season 1 4^th-placed Andrew He. Andrew will not want his return to end early, but only one of these three fine players can advance. Pam has spent most of the past 20 years outplaying her seed in these events, and I do expect her to be competitive. I’d love to see her get to 19 correct in this one, just so I can add her to The 300 Club. It’ll also be interesting to see just how much “rust” will be a factor in this event; I would say that Pam’s continued involvement in the overall trivia community will also be of assistance to her in this event.

Chances of Winning: Dan 34.080%, Pam 27.457%, Andrew 38.463%. 

Thursday, March 21:

Leonard Cooper +3400 Little Rock, Arkansas 97 correct, 19 incorrect 1/1 on rebound attempts (on 9 rebound opportunities) 37.72% in first on buzzer (106/281) 2/3 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $16,500) 3/6 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $13,800* *All-Star Games Coryat scores adjusted to reflect players only played half boards

Jason Zuffranieri +1700 Carrolton, Texas 617 correct, 49 incorrect 41/45 on rebound attempts (on 85 rebound opportunities) 46.18% in first on buzzer (556/1204) 34/43 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $96,305) 13/22 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $23,455

Larissa Kelly +1200 Richmond, California 321 correct, 25 incorrect 15/17 on rebound attempts (on 40 rebound opportunities) 39.86% in first on buzzer (295/740) 16/20 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $44,400) 12/14 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $19,514* *All-Star Games Coryat scores adjusted to reflect players only played half boards

Overall Thoughts: Larissa makes her return to the Alex Trebek Stage having been seen as the most valuable player at the All-Star Games from many pundits; her opening round match sees her take on superchampion Jason Zuffranieri and All-Star Leonard Cooper. I’m anticipating this to be a two-player game between Jason and Larissa; both have been keeping their “quizzing eye” in, so to speak. 

Chances of Winning: Leonard 27.372%, Jason 34.173%, Larissa 38.455%.

Friday, March 22:

Terry O’Shea +14000 Brooklyn, New York 103 correct, 10 incorrect 8/9 on rebound attempts (on 33 rebound opportunities) 27.78% in first on buzzer (95/342) 2/3 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $1,800) 5/6 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $11,800

Matt Jackson +980 Washington, D.C. 514 correct, 28 incorrect 20/22 on rebound attempts (on 62 rebound opportunities) 43.63% in first on buzzer (462/1059) 35/38 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $147,795) 11/20 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $23,170* *All-Star Games Coryat scores adjusted to reflect players only played half boards

Alan Lin +4400 Los Angeles, California 257 correct, 26 incorrect 13/13 on rebound attempts (on 61 rebound opportunities) 33.15% in first on buzzer (242/730) 10/15 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $8,805) 8/13 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $15,414* *All-Star Games Coryat scores adjusted to reflect players only played half boards

Overall Thoughts: Matt Jackson was one of the best players in 2019 at the All-Star Games, and he’s kept his quizzing skill sharp since then; the prediction model has him as the outright favorite out of the gate. Alan Lin and Terry O’Shea have both received an unfortunate quarterfinal draw for Episode #9000. That being said: upsets can absolutely happen; Terry is the first player in the event whose skill may have improved considerably since her last appearance; she was still at Princeton when she last competed, and one of the reasons behind inviting the field the show did was to see if players like Terry had improved considerably since they were last on the show. 

Chances of Winning: Terry 20.278%, Matt 49.832%, Alan 29.890%. 

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Monday, March 25:

Celeste DiNucci +7400 Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 213 correct, 46 incorrect 15/19 on rebound attempts (on 51 rebound opportunities) 35.63% in first on buzzer (217/609) 9/12 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $20,000) 5/11 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $12,636

Austin Rogers +2100 New York, New York 424 correct, 58 incorrect 29/30 on rebound attempts (on 81 rebound opportunities) 38.86% in first on buzzer (403/1037) 24/31 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $105,700) 14/18 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $16,105* *All-Star Games Coryat scores adjusted to reflect players only played half boards

Amy Schneider +1500 Oakland, California 1600 correct, 111 incorrect 77/94 on rebound attempts (on 212 rebound opportunities) 46.35% in first on buzzer (1475/3182) 73/86 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $225,400) 37/56 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $23,043

Overall Thoughts: The prediction model does think that Amy has the best chance of advancing out of this quarterfinal, and it thinks that she has the best chance of winning out of the three relegated players. However, her game had some rather glaring mistakes in Masters—she was relegated due to a wagering mistake that cost her a win in a crucial late matchup—that would be punished just as severely here if she were to make them again. From that perspective, Austin Rogers plays the sort of game that will absolutely punish the sort of mistakes that Amy has been prone to making. This game, which is only one of two quarterfinals to feature a pair of ToC winners (in Amy and Celeste), could come down to who makes fewere mistakes. 

Chances of Winning: Celeste 23.257%, Austin 36.002%, Amy 40.741%. 

Tuesday, March 26:

MacKenzie Jones +3100 Tulsa, Oklahoma 191 correct, 22 incorrect 10/11 on rebound attempts (on 37 rebound opportunities) 33.39% in first on buzzer (185/554) 8/9 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $42,200) 8/10 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $14,020

Arthur Chu +2300 Cleveland, Ohio 411 correct, 56 incorrect 15/21 on rebound attempts (on 54 rebound opportunities) 44.20% in first on buzzer (396/896) 24/34 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $54,200) 8/16 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $20,675

David Madden +2500 Ridgewood, New Jersey 542 correct, 53 incorrect 33/39 on rebound attempts (on 102 rebound opportunities) 37.42% in first on buzzer (485/1296) 45/47 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $77,805) 17/24 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $18,425* *All-Star Games Coryat scores adjusted to reflect players only played half boards

Overall Thoughts: Quarterfinal #5 contains another intriguing matchup between MacKenzie Jones, Arthur Chu, and David Madden. All three of these players play very similar styles—they all are excellent on Daily Doubles and Final Jeopardy. I’m glad to see Arthur back, and the prediction model does have him as a slight favorite; this game will very likely come down to “who finds the Daily Doubles” and “who is the least rusty”.

Chances of Winning: MacKenzie 31.350%, Arthur 34.687%, David 33.963%.

Wednesday, March 27:

Alex Jacob +2500 Tulsa, Oklahoma 336 correct, 38 incorrect 16/18 on rebound attempts (on 51 rebound opportunities) 44.35% in first on buzzer (322/726) 17/23 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $70,500) 2/11 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $19,969* *All-Star Games Coryat scores adjusted to reflect players only played half boards

Jennifer Quail +1700 Dowagiac, Michigan 340 correct, 37 incorrect 19/25 on rebound attempts (on 52 rebound opportunities) 43.66% in first on buzzer (320/733) 18/19 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $35,700) 12/13 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $19,646

Brandon Blackwell +1300 Jamaica, New York 32 correct, 3 incorrect 1/1 on rebound attempts (on 11 rebound opportunities) 25.44% in first on buzzer (29/114) 0/3 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$9,000) 2/2 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $12,300

Overall Thoughts: I won’t go as far as to say that this matchup could have been the final—but it definitely would not have looked out of place for the semifinals, that’s for certain. For the uninitiated, Brandon was a Teen contestant back in 2008, bowing out in the semifinals. However, since then, he has built up an internationally renowned quizzing reputation, starring in University Challenge in the UK and has served as a Chaser on The Chase in both the U.S. and Australia. Jeopardy! viewers will be much more familiar with both Alex and Jennifer; Alex’s strengths lie more on Daily Doubles, while Jennifer’s lie more in Final Jeopardy. The prediction model is bullish Jennifer in general; she clearly has the knowledge base. If she just has the confidence to bet on herself, she could make a deep run in this event. It would not surprise me in the slightest if the winner of this quarterfinal ended up in the final.

Chances of Winning: Alex 29.695%, Jennifer 33.405%, Brandon 36.900%. 

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Thursday, March 28:

Sam Kavanaugh +1200 Minneapolis, Minnesota 202 correct, 17 incorrect 4/5 on rebound attempts (on 31 rebound opportunities) 33.33% in first on buzzer (188/564) 15/16 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $84,000) 7/10 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $15,580

Chuck Forrest +2800 Marino, Italy 374 correct, 27 incorrect 28/30 on rebound attempts (on 71 rebound opportunities) 38.95% in first on buzzer (340/873) 11/15 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $23,900*) 12/16 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $17,550* * pre-2001 dollar values adjusted to current dollar values

Monica Thieu +8000 Atlanta, Georgia 100 correct, 22 incorrect 2/3 on rebound attempts (on 16 rebound opportunities) 31.78% in first on buzzer (109/343) 1/3 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $200) 7/7 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $9,914* *All-Star Games Coryat scores adjusted to reflect players only played half boards

Overall Thoughts: Monica is the second of four 2010s College Championship winners to appear; she is coming off the publication of a major paper about how trivia players gain and retain memory, and spent some time as one of the Master Minds on the GSN show. Meanwhile, she comes up against 2021 Tournament of Champions winner Sam Kavanaugh—who I would say is probably the most underrated recent champion amongst the general public; his skill on Daily Doubles was the chief reason why he won the 2021 ToC—as well as the OG great of the Trebek Era in Chuck Forrest. The fact that Chuck should still be able to compete at this high of a level after nearly 40 years is incredible; though I do think Sam will advance out of this quarterfinal, neither Chuck nor Monica are going to make it easy for Sam. One thing to note strategy-wise: every single time that Chuck has not led going into Final Jeopardy in his career, he has overbet Final: if you’re leading Chuck, don’t play games with your bet, just make the cover bet.

Chances of Winning: Sam 43.929%, Chuck 33.398%, Monica 22.673%. 

Friday, March 29:

Victoria Groce +1500 Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 50 correct, 14 incorrect 3/4 on rebound attempts (on 6 rebound opportunities) 50.46% in first on buzzer (55/109) 2/3 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $7,100) 1/2 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $10,300

Dhruv Gaur +6000 Cambridge, Massachusetts 117 correct, 17 incorrect 7/8 on rebound attempts (on 21 rebound opportunities) 32.15% in first on buzzer (109/339) 8/11 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $14,600) 3/6 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $13,633

Ben Ingram +1700 Florence, South Carolina 296 correct, 22 incorrect 24/24 on rebound attempts (on 61 rebound opportunities) 34.13% in first on buzzer (256/750) 18/24 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $29,300) 13/14 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $16,557* *All-Star Games Coryat scores adjusted to reflect players only played half boards

Overall Thoughts: Our second Chaser from ABC’s The Chase in the field is Victoria Groce; back in 2005, she was the giant killer to David Madden’s streak. Since then, she has pretty much become the consensus #1 trivia player in America and is absolutely in the conversation for being the best quizzer on the planet. Oh, and her buzzer timing was impeccable in 2005. If that keeps up, she will 100% take the spot in Jeopardy! Masters. Ben’s skills in Final Jeopardy are also very well known; he is one of the few players in the show’s history to get 10 Final Jeopardy clues in a row correct. Clue #61 might be the key to Ben’s chances here.

Chances of Winning: Victoria 38.895%, Dhruv 23.63%, Ben 37.142%. 

Monday, April 1:

Lilly Chin +7500 Decatur, Georgia 115 correct, 17 incorrect 5/6 on rebound attempts (on 16 rebound opportunities) 32.74% in first on buzzer (111/339) 8/9 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $14,200) 3/6 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $14,300

Colby Burnett +4300 Chicago, Illinois 240 correct, 24 incorrect 17/17 on rebound attempts (on 56 rebound opportunities) 30.59% in first on buzzer (216/706) 11/17 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $9,800) 8/14 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $15,629* *All-Star Games Coryat scores adjusted to reflect players only played half boards

Sam Buttrey +5200 Pacific Grove, California 378 correct, 52 incorrect 16/20 on rebound attempts (on 62 rebound opportunities) 34.90% in first on buzzer (378/1083) 10/13 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $27,200) 8/19 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $13,905

Overall Thoughts: Our last quarterfinal features three players who are no stranger to teaching: a robotics professor in Lilly Chin, a high school college counselor in Colby Burnett, and a (retired?) professor in Sam Buttrey, who’s being introduced as a “bon vivant & man about town”. This one will come down to whoever does best on the four betting clues, I figure.

Chances of Winning: 30.014%, Colby 36.086%, Sam 33.900%. 

Finals Length Odds:

2 games: +170

3 games: +110

4 games: +350

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