Welcome to Masters Breakdown #4. I could write some platitudes about how the other five players are doing at this point, and I do think that it’s important that Amy won the opening game on Friday—it’s crucial for her advancement chances, after all, there’s really only one reason why anyone cares about what I have to say today:
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Breaking Down Victoria’s Final Jeopardy Wager
One of the biggest questions on everybody’s mind from Friday’s episode was “What was Victoria Groce thinking with her Final Jeopardy bet?”
Now, I realize I could have very easily asked Victoria directly, and I’m sure she would have told me, but I think it’s more fun and more instructive to work it out myself.
In case you’ve forgotten, the scores going into Final Jeopardy were:
Victoria 20,800
Yogesh 18,400
James 18,000
I suggested the following bets in my recap on Friday:
Victoria: 16,001 (standard cover bet)
Yogesh: less than 399 or at least 17,601 (“Stratton’s Dilemma”; he can’t both cover James and win a Triple Stumper; thus, he should play for one of the other)
James: no more than 13,200 (if Victoria bets to cover Yogesh, she falls to 4,799; thus, James should hope for a big bet from Yogesh + a Triple Stumper).
Here’s what happened:
Victoria 3,200
Yogesh 17,601
James 3,268
So, why did Victoria bet 3,200? In my eyes, there are a few reasons.
- This was a situation where Victoria did not absolutely need to win the game. Whether she had realized it or not, Victoria had already clinched a spot in the semifinals. Thus, she didn’t need to be as aggressive, and the standard cover bet isn’t as crucial as it might have otherwise been.
- Victoria was 0-for-3 in Final Jeopardy up to that point in the tournament. Having faced a number of more difficult Finals already, it wouldn’t surprise me if she was feeling a little bit gun-shy about an unseen fourth one.
- Being seen as a player who won’t blindly make a cover bet might induce sub-optimal betting down the line from an opposing player; it’s known as a “mixed strategy” in game theory and relies on the fact that your unpredictability makes you more difficult to defend.
- Points 1, 2, and 3 certainly explain, “Why would Victoria not cover?” However, it doesn’t explain, “Why 3,200?” A common Final Jeopardy bet for a trailing player—though it might not be strategically sound—is to bet to pass the player in front of you by 1. If you assume that Yogesh and James both choose to do this, Yogesh and James would bet 2,401 and 401 respectively. Assuming, then, that Victoria with her small bet is playing for a Triple Stumper, Yogesh and James would then fall to 15,999 and 17,599, respectively—and Victoria, with a 3,200 point bet, would stay above that score of James’s by 1 at 17,600 on an incorrect response. Additionally, if Yogesh and James both choose to go small, Victoria’s bet of 3,200 still wins on a triple-get.
So, upon further analysis, I would classify Victoria’s bet on Friday as “an excellent gambit that didn’t work out for the 3 points on Friday, but might pay dividends for her later in the tournament”.
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Here’s how the prediction model breaks down Monday’s matchups:
Game 1:
| Player | Win % | Second % | Third % |
| Victoria Groce (8-3) | 30.613% | 35.637% | 33.750% |
| James Holzhauer (47-8) | 41.520% | 29.512% | 28.968% |
| Matt Amodio (42-13) | 27.867% | 34.851% | 37.282% |
Game 2:
| Player | Win % | Second % | Third % |
| Yogesh Raut (11-5) | 38.413% | 33.148% | 28.439% |
| Amy Schneider (48-16) | 35.841% | 32.067% | 32.092% |
| Mattea Roach (25-15) | 25.746% | 34.785% | 39.469% |
This is about as close of a “must-win” game as one can get for James; he hasn’t clinched a spot in the semifinals yet, and he definitely needs another win before the quarterfinals are finished in order to make sure he goes through.
The same can be said for Amy, Matt, and Mattea: Amy needs 1 more good performance, while Matt and Mattea need these next two games to work out very well for them in order to advance.
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I had assumed #1 and #2 about Victoria’s FJ! wager (with the unknown but possible reason that she didn’t like the category), but was glad to find out you thought that, too. And the rest of your theories on it were also very interesting to read and think about. Thanks.
Thank you, Andy, for your ever-insightful thoughts on all things J!. Kinda missing the platitudes, though, and would’ve liked hearing your views about the remaining race to the finals. (P.S. Big Matt fan here, feeling a little bummed, and looking forward to the rest of the tournament.)
I don’t understand why (from your comments on Monday’s recap) why people are upset with your analysis. I don’t know the math behind your analysis, but I presume it’s as sound as it always is. But further, why are they objecting to your opinion. Your opinion may be based on math that has been proven to be true. But it isstill your opinion. If people don’t like it, ignore it. or go elsewhere.