27 is now 9 in the 2025 Jeopardy! Invitational Tournament as everyone is a really tough out at this point. Here is my preview for what I think will be three very exciting semifinal matchups, with predictions (and odds to win JIT) powered by the new Unified Prediction Model:
Friday, February 28, 2025:
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Roger Craig (+530) Arlington, Virginia  463 correct, 82 incorrect 20/25 on rebound attempts (on 54 rebound opportunities) 45.91% in first on buzzer (472/1028) 28/31 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $139,000) 9/17 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $17,910 Adjusted Performance Mean: 15,301 Performance Variance: 22,650 The Double Jeopardy round saw the Roger Craig of old come out, converting $21,000 worth of Daily Doubles. If that continues—and I do feel that Roger might have some momentum here—we’ll see Roger in the final. |
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Jaskaran Singh (+700) Plano, Texas  139 correct, 24 incorrect 4/5 on rebound attempts (on 18 rebound opportunities) 41.52% in first on buzzer (142/342) 7/10 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $20,400) 6/6 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $19,900 Adjusted Performance Mean: 14,836 Performance Variance: 17,979 Jaskaran proved he is a very strong player with a runaway victory in the quarterfinals against Margaret Shelton and Skyler Hornback. A lot of people with knowledge of the quiz bowl world have been praising Jaskaran’s skills for a long time; will Jaskaran continue to prove them correct? |
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Shane Whitlock (+1000) Benton, Arkansas  246 correct, 20 incorrect 12/14 on rebound attempts (on 43 rebound opportunities) 35.57% in first on buzzer (223/627) 15/18 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $33,300) 7/11 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $18,200 Adjusted Performance Mean: 14,544 Performance Variance: 13,206 Shane took out one of the game’s best strategists in Ben Chan in the quarterfinals with some strong bottom-of-the-board gets. If that happens again, watch out! |
The Prediction Model Says: Roger 37.896%, Jaskaran 33.134%, Shane 28.970%.
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Monday, March 3, 2025:
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Matt Amodio (+440) New York, New York  1645 correct, 193 incorrect 66/80 on rebound attempts (on 181 rebound opportunities) 46.68% in first on buzzer (1588/3402) 95/110 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $372,000) 41/59 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $21,863 Adjusted Performance Mean: 17,108 Performance Variance: 20,034 After being relegated down from Masters to this event, Matt Amodio didn’t have the easiest time in the quarterfinals; Hannah Wilson played an extremely strong game as Matt needed a $13,600 True Daily Double to take the lead for good. His semifinal matchup is no easier. He may be the slight favorite here, but it won’t be an easy road to the final. |
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Luigi de Guzman (+680) Arlington, Virginia  232 correct, 35 incorrect 11/14 on rebound attempts (on 37 rebound opportunities) 44.99% in first on buzzer (229/509) 13/15 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $42,800) 6/9 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $19,778 Adjusted Performance Mean: 15,041 Performance Variance: 17,875 Luigi de Guzman has already taken out one Master in Amy Schneider–does he have the game to take out a second Master in Matt Amodio? I certainly wouldn’t count Luigi out in this one at all, especially if the Daily Doubles break in the right direction. |
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Emily Sands (+1300) Chanhassen, Minnesota  245 correct, 43 incorrect 12/18 on rebound attempts (on 45 rebound opportunities) 38.52% in first on buzzer (240/623) 15/19 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $42,800) 6/11 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $14,982 Adjusted Performance Mean: 12,602 Performance Variance: 14,181 Emily advanced out of the quarterfinals after a very crafty Final Jeopardy wager. If things break the right way for her, she could absolutely find herself in the finals. |
The Prediction Model Says: Matt 40.810%, Luigi 34.158%, Emily 25.032%.
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Tuesday, March 4, 2025:
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Raymond Goslow (+710) Marietta, Georgia  115 correct, 15 incorrect 5/7 on rebound attempts (on 23 rebound opportunities) 39.30% in first on buzzer (112/285) 5/6 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $17,600) 4/5 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $17,880 Adjusted Performance Mean: 14,771 Performance Variance: 16,341 Raymond pulled off the shock result of the tournament in the quarterfinals in taking down Troy Meyer, which has made him the favorite in this match here in the semis. Unfortunately—and through no fault of Raymond’s—the pairings will have made Raymond the sole enemy in the eyes of an entire country this coming Tuesday. |
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Juveria Zaheer (+810) Whitby, Ontario, Canada  245 correct, 38 incorrect 11/12 on rebound attempts (on 32 rebound opportunities) 42.98% in first on buzzer (245/570) 13/16 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $86,800) 5/10 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $18,040 Adjusted Performance Mean: 13,487 Performance Variance: 18,810 After defeating Jackson Jones and Seth Wilson in the quarters, I suspect that Juveria will be the fan favorite in this one; one thing is likely is that Juveria will find and bet aggressively on Daily Doubles. |
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Ray Lalonde (+1400) Toronto, Ontario, Canada  390 correct, 48 incorrect 26/30 on rebound attempts (on 56 rebound opportunities) 40.57% in first on buzzer (370/912) 18/22 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $43,800) 13/16 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $19,150 Adjusted Performance Mean: 12,564 Performance Variance: 12,880 Ray put up a very strong performance against Robin Carroll and Ryan Long in the quarterfinals; although the UPM doesn’t think much of Ray’s chances, it does think that Ray is a very consistent player—and that consistency may be enough to see Ray into the final. |
The Prediction Model Says: Raymond 37.184%, Juveria 34.851%, Ray 27.965%.
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Andy! Thanks for this Preview. It will increase my enjoyment of the semifinals.
MasterDoge! Hello. Will you be providing your analysis and comments on the ‘JIT’ semifinals
Hi, Rick!
I just woke up, as a matter of fact; give me a little bit to get my thoughts written down, but they will be here soon! 🙂
I was hoping to see Matt and Luigi in the finals, so I’m little bummed to see them grouped together. It’s hard to argue too much with the groupings though, as Luigi, Roger and Raymond had the three standout performances of the quarters.
I don’t necessarily feel good about my predictions this time, but it’s kind of tradition for me to do these, so here goes nothing…
Semifinal #1: Roger – This game is without a doubt going to be a race to the Daily Doubles… and with Roger seemingly having the buzzer figured out, I do think he’s a very slight favorite. He’s not gonna have an easy time, though – Shane is effectively the Victoria Groce of this Invitational, and though I don’t really keep up with quiz bowl, I know that Jaskaran will absolutely be a tough out. This could really go any of the three ways, but knowing how good Roger is at harnessing the Daily Doubles, I have to go with him winning.
Semifinal #2: Matt – Remember how my thought process for the second quarterfinal was “put all three names on a wheel and go with whatever it lands on”? Yeah, I basically did the same thing here. I feel reasonably confident that this game is coming down to Matt and Luigi, but I have no idea how this will go. I do agree with the wheel spin slightly – especially considering Matt seems to thrive under pressure – but this game is definitely coming down to the wire. Both of these players are so good, in fact, that I’d say whichever one makes it out (if either of them do) will probably be the favorite to win overall… but who knows?
Semifinal #3: Juveria – This is by a long shot the most confident I feel predicting a semifinal… and even then (especially considering Raymond’s tooth-and-nail fight with Troy Meyer) my confidence interval is only at about 10%. I’m not counting out Raymond at all, but much like with the first semifinal, this is coming down to the Daily Doubles… and with Juveria having been consistently far more aggressive than either of the other two (plus being an incredibly strong player material-wise on top of that), I do think the numbers point slightly to her.
One final prediction – I doubt we’ll see any runaways in this round, just because of how close in skill all of these players are. (Of course, now that I say this, each winner will be knocking on the door of $50,000 going into Final. Oh well.)
This is gonna be some great television – I can’t wait!
MaaterDoge!
Thanks so much. This increase my enjoyment of the semifinals!!