As we get closer to the 33rd Tournament Of Champions, we have 15 players vying for the 21st and final spot in that event. Here are those 15 players; 3 of them have advanced from Second Chance, joining 2 3-time champs, 5 2-time champs, and 5 1-time champs in this field.
As always, the Unified Prediction Model has been run 100,000 times in order to determine the chances of advancing to each stage of the competition, as well as the chances of victory, for each player.
Monday, January 5, 2026:
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Stella Trout Houston, Texas  40 correct, 3 incorrect 3/3 on rebound attempts (on 15 rebound opportunities) 29.73% in first on buzzer (33/111) 5/5 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $14,000) 1/2 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $18,200 35.005% to win quarterfinal Once word came out that the producers were using some discretion to pick players for Champions Wildcard, I don’t think there were many lists that didn’t include Stella, a very strong 1-day champion from back in June. Stella is definitely one of the stronger players in the field with an above average chance of advancing both to Week 2 and the Tournament of Champions. |
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Bill McKinney San Diego, California  73 correct, 15 incorrect 9/12 on rebound attempts (on 23 rebound opportunities) 29.65% in first on buzzer (67/226) 4/5 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $10,000) 1/4 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $12,550 24.297% to win quarterfinal The Unified Prediction Model isn’t the biggest fan of Bill, thinking that other players in this field may have just gotten unlucky in regular play. However, Bill does know how to win, having claimed 3 victories in regular play. And in my experience covering this show, I’ve learned never to count out the player with more victories under their belt. |
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Dargan Ware Bessemer, Alabama  72 correct, 11 incorrect 0/3 on rebound attempts (on 8 rebound opportunities) 42.11% in first on buzzer (72/171) 5/5 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $32,800) 1/3 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $20,867 40.698% to win quarterfinal Dargan was an incredibly strong player and shows up on many lists as a favorite to advance to the Tournament of Champions. Honestly, I’m at least part expecting both Stella and Dargan to put up monster scores through 2 rounds with both advancing to next week through conservative Daily Double bets. |
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Tuesday, January 6, 2026:
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Michelle Tsai Honolulu, Hawaii  94 correct, 10 incorrect 9/10 on rebound attempts (on 22 rebound opportunities) 36.84% in first on buzzer (84/228) 4/6 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $4,600) 2/4 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $18,950 38.222% to win quarterfinal Michelle quickly became a fan favorite in Second Chance, also cruising through Week 2 of that competition. The Unified Prediction Model does have her the favorite to extend that run into Week 2 of this one as well. |
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Dave Bond Rochester, New York  63 correct, 10 incorrect 5/5 on rebound attempts (on 12 rebound opportunities) 36.26% in first on buzzer (62/171) 2/3 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $8,600) 1/3 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $15,400 31.397% to win quarterfinal Dave has had the longest wait out of anyone to find out if he was going to make it back on to the Alex Trebek Stage; he was the carryover champion from the qualifying period of the 32nd Tournament of Champions. |
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Geoff Barnes Washington, D.C.  68 correct, 8 incorrect 5/6 on rebound attempts (on 25 rebound opportunities) 28.05% in first on buzzer (62/221) 3/4 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $6,600) 4/4 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $11,700 30.381% to win quarterfinal Much like Bill in our first quarterfinal, Geoff has three victories under his belt; as I also said above, it’s tough to count out any 3-win players in this event. |
Wednesday, January 7, 2026:
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Cameron Berry Brighton, Massachusetts  42 correct, 10 incorrect 5/7 on rebound attempts (on 11 rebound opportunities) 35.96% in first on buzzer (41/114) 2/2 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $6,400) 1/2 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $15,100 34.565% to win quarterfinal Cameron is another one of the very strong 1-time champions being invited back to Champions Wildcard. I do think he has his work cut out for him a little bit, though, having to play against Harvey and Jason. |
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Harvey Silikovitz West Orange, New Jersey  49 correct, 4 incorrect 2/2 on rebound attempts (on 4 rebound opportunities) 41.23% in first on buzzer (47/114) 2/2 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $7,000) 1/2 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $19,000 37.670% to win quarterfinal Harvey had one of the best opening-game performances in the 42-year history of Jeopardy! before having a very large fall-off in his second game. Hopefully that will bode well for him advancing out of the quarterfinals. |
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Jason Singer Portland, Maine  66 correct, 14 incorrect 2/2 on rebound attempts (on 6 rebound opportunities) 40.94% in first on buzzer (70/171) 3/5 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $2,000) 2/3 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $17,067 27.765% to win quarterfinal I think this is my surest prediction of the entire event: Jason will write #BringBackSusan in Final Jeopardy. (That says nothing as to whether or not I think the show should.) He was moving along at quite a nice clip, though, before running into Scott Riccardi. I think, at the very least, as long as our three players have studied wild card strategy, we could very well see 3 advancees to the semifinals out of this one. |
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Thursday, January 8, 2026:
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Pete Johnston Alma, Michigan  77 correct, 18 incorrect 2/5 on rebound attempts (on 13 rebound opportunities) 35.53% in first on buzzer (81/228) 3/5 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $3,000) 2/4 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $13,750 25.390% to win quarterfinal Compared to Michelle and Ryan, I do think Pete was the weakest of the three Second Chance winners. Moreover, I don’t think he’s gotten a favorable draw in this event, either—both Vickie and Jonathan are extremely strong opponents. That does explain why the Unified Prediction Model rates Pete the way it has. But Pete has recent game experience, and I do think that counts for something here. |
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Vickie Talvola Jersey City, New Jersey  49 correct, 2 incorrect 5/6 on rebound attempts (on 13 rebound opportunities) 35.09% in first on buzzer (40/114) 3/3 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $19,000) 2/2 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $18,600 40.043% to win quarterfinal I described Vickie’s regular-play exit as “heartbreaking” and I am very glad that the show invited strong 1-time champions to fill out the Champions Wildcard field. I also think her conservatism in Final Jeopardy betting from her initial run will suit her well, at least in terms of advancing to Week 2. From there, I think the Unified Prediction Model’s rating her as the overall favorite to advance is probably accurate; she was an extremely strong player who just ran into bad luck in Final Jeopardy. |
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Jonathan Hugendubler Baltimore, Maryland  55 correct, 10 incorrect 6/6 on rebound attempts (on 15 rebound opportunities) 29.24% in first on buzzer (50/171) 5/6 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $23,600) 2/3 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $15,933 34.567% to win quarterfinal Jonathan became well-known as a “giant killer” coming back from a very deep hole to unseat Scott Riccardi. If there’s a “dark horse” in this field, I do think it is Jonathan, and it would not surprise me if this game turned out very similar to Mondays, in this case with Jonathan and Vickie dominating the game, both being conservative in Final Jeopardy, and both easily advancing through to Week 2. |
Friday, January 9, 2026:
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James Corson Frederick, Maryland  61 correct, 6 incorrect 3/3 on rebound attempts (on 9 rebound opportunities) 33.33% in first on buzzer (57/171) 4/4 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $18,200) 2/3 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $15,733 33.525% to win quarterfinal James knocked out Harvey Silikovitz before picking up a second victory. An above-average player in the field, his fortunes might be dependent on how much momentum Ryan carries over from Second Chance. |
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Ryan Sharpe Oakville, Ontario, Canada  96 correct, 10 incorrect 6/6 on rebound attempts (on 14 rebound opportunities) 39.47% in first on buzzer (90/228) 5/6 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $29,104) 3/4 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $18,700 39.473% to win quarterfinal Ryan had a bit of a hiccup in his Second Chance quarterfinal, and that is the only reason why the Unified Prediction Model isn’t rating him higher here. He is a very strong and very capable player and is basically coming into this event having taped Second Chance the day immediately prior. I expect Ryan’s momentum from Second Chance to continue. |
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Ian Morrison Aurora, Colorado  44 correct, 9 incorrect 5/5 on rebound attempts (on 10 rebound opportunities) 39.47% in first on buzzer (45/114) 1/1 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $3,000) 1/2 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $11,800 27.002% to win quarterfinal Ian certainly has had an extremely strong strength of schedule; his loss was to Paolo Pasco. However, judging by who they’ve chosen to invite in this postseason, I suspect that the show rates “strength of schedule” higher than the Unified Prediction Model does. Additionally, I don’t think the draw has done Ian many favors either, pairing him against an extremely fresh Ryan Sharpe and a strong James Corson. I’m worried that Ian may have a similar outcome to his regular-season loss to Paolo in that there will be many attempts, but boxed out again on the buzzer. We shall see! |
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Predictions Time!. I’m just picking the winners, not wild cards.
Game 1: Dargan
Game 2: Michelle
Game 3: This is the closest game for me, but I’m going with Harvey
Game 4: Jonathan( hot take I know)
Game 5: Ryan
Time for predictions once again!
Before I even start, I just want to make something clear that I have neglected to in the past – just because I do not predict someone to win or even advance does not mean I do not like them as people or that I think they are a bad player or undeserving of being here. This field is strong enough that, bar some killer Finals, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the winners’ scores throughout the whole week be absurdly high and the wildcard cutoff be WELL into five figures. Variance happens, and every player in this tournament – as well as the ToC – has absolutely earned their spot.
Now…
Quarterfinal #1: Dargan wins, Stella advances via wildcard – I don’t think there’s a single player in the field that CWC is better designed for than Dargan. The guy has ToCer written all over him in every part of his stats and he just got insanely unlucky in game #3 with a very tough challenger in Tom Devlin and a very tough Final in area codes 212, 213, and 312; in my mind, he’s absolutely the favorite to advance to the ToC through this event. That being said, Stella is also going to be an incredibly tough out, and I have a feeling she’ll have one of the top two wildcard scores at the end of the week.
Quarterfinal #2: Michelle wins – This match basically entirely depends on whether or not Michelle still has her groove from Second Chance. If she doesn’t, Geoff and Dave each have a chance at landing a wildcard through a double-up in Final or something; if she does, which I think is more likely, the rest of the field had better watch out!
Quarterfinal #3: Harvey wins, Jason advances via wildcard – I’ve brought up only having to play one game at a time being an advantage before, and I don’t think anyone in this tournament will benefit more from that than H-Bomb. If one of the most dominant debut games of all time (against an 8-day champion, no less!) tells me anything, only playing one at a time should be a major boost to his chances; Jason’s still an incredibly strong player, though, and will likely have more than enough money for a wildcard spot. (And remember that long paragraph I wrote before starting to make my predictions? Cameron would arguably be the fifth wildcard if five of them regularly existed!)
Quarterfinal #4: Vickie wins, Jonathan advances via wildcard – This game has potential, without a doubt, to be one of the greatest two-player battles of all time. Vickie’s incredibly strong pair of performances definitely makes her one of the favorites to win the event, but if there’s anything Jonathan already knows how to do very well, it’s taking down people that are very, VERY good at Jeopardy. Pete’s solid, but I feel like he tends to play quite conservatively and neg fairly often – and with how they play, neither Vickie nor Jonathan will show any mercy punishing those kinds of mistakes.
Quarterfinal #5: Ryan wins, James advances via wildcard – Aside from obviously being the most recent player to have entered the field, Ryan has had MANY moments of brilliance across his four games on the Alex Trebek Stage, be it impressive pulls on bottom-row clues or huge Daily Double bets when he needs to make a move. If he keeps those performances up, he’s going to be a terrifying draw for any player in this event. James and Ian definitely have their work cut out for them, but both have plenty of experience dealing with incredibly strong competition, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see James and potentially Ian cleaning up enough of what Ryan can’t, or doesn’t try to, get in on to salvage a wildcard through a double-up in Final.
This is gonna be a fantastic week!!!
Something seems off with the “advance to semifinal” projections. All high numbers and (more confusingly) higher than all the “advance to quarterfinal” projections.
Also I think you should print the results with at most one decimal place.
Easier to read, and avoids creating the impression that the result is more precise than it really is: https://tidsskriftet.no/en/2023/05/medicine-and-numbers/do-we-need-all-decimals
Love that you publish these!
The first line is “win quarterfinal”. Because there are wildcards into the semifinal as well, that will always happen less often than “advance to semifinal”, because you can advance either by winning or by wildcard.