How will Earl Holland do in going for Win #8?
You can watch this game on Crackle!
Today’s contestants:
Myles Bacon, a bartender and coach from Chapel Hill, NC |
Chris Beckham, a radio talk show host from Tifton, GA |
Earl Holland, a sports copy and web editor from Newark, DE (7-day total: $35,000) |
Final Jeopardy! category: NFL PASSING RECORDS
Final Jeopardy! clue: Peyton Manning leads with 539 TD passes, but this man who finished with 342 held the record the longest, 1975-95
Who is Fran Tarkenton?
This was an edge-on-your seat game, with Earl playing a late game Daily Double where he chose to chance it in Final as opposed to playing for the game on the Daily Double. He got the Daily Double right, but will he survive Final too?
For the record: I don’t think there’s enough data yet on Final Jeopardy tendencies in Sports Jeopardy to determine what the true correct play is here! If trailers tend to overbet in Final, then it makes more sense to just make sure you have the lead. If wagering becomes more rational, then it might make more sense to play for the game on the Daily Double.
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Scores going into Final:
Earl 16,400
Myles 12,000
Chris -1,000
Final Results:
Myles 12,000 + 7,500 = 19,500
Earl 16,400 + 7,601 = 24,001 (8-day total: $40,000)
Scores after the Jeopardy! round:
Myles 4,750
Chris 2,500
Earl 2,200
Daily Double locations:
1) HOUSE OF CARDS 1000 (19th pick)
Earl 3250 -1050 (Myles 3250 Chris 2250)
—
2) OLYMPIANS 1500 (12th pick)
Myles 9750 -1250 (Earl 6700 Chris -1000)
3) 1956 2000 (22nd pick, 1,000 left on board)
Earl 14200 +1200 (Myles 12000 Chris -1000)
On the scoreboard:
20 – 10
70 – 68
In 2010 in the first round at Wimbledon, John Isner beat Nicolas Mahut in 5 sets, 70-68 in the fifth, in the longest match in tennis history.
Game stats:
Earl 18,250 Coryat, 21 correct, 4 incorrect, 48.89% in first on buzzer
Myles 13,250 Coryat, 15 correct, 1 incorrect, 28.89% in first on buzzer
Chris -1,000 Coryat, 5 correct, 3 incorrect, 13.33% in first on buzzer
Earl Holland, stats to date:
165 correct
21 incorrect
14/16 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: 23,400)
5/8 in Final Jeopardy
41.66% in first on buzzer (150/360)
Average Coryat: 16,562
Earl Holland, to win:
9 games: 66.43%
10: 44.13%
11: 29.32%
12: 19.48%
13: 12.94%
Avg. streak: 9.979 games.
(contestant photo credit: sportsjeopardy.com)
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My perception is that in Sports Jeopardy!, the daily doubles tend to be markedly easier than Final Jeopardy. I’d have gone in on the daily double.
I would have as well. The big late-game Daily Double bet is just more exciting.
However: I haven’t looked at Final Jeopardy! get rates and wagering by position yet with my Sports Jeopardy data, but an overbet from second (like what happened today in Final) takes a leader’s chances of winning from somewhere around 50% to around 80% on the regular show. If trailers are more likely to overbet Final in Sports Jeopardy (which I suspect they are), it might mean that your Daily Double get rate might need to clear 70% for “playing for the win on the Daily Double” to actually be the percentage play.
Also, interestingly:
It would have been the better play for me as I: 1) got Rocky Marciano; 2) whiffed on Final with Johnny Unitas.
I thought about going all-in on the Marciano Daily Double, but I wasn’t all that certain. It’s funny, as much as I’d say I’d go all in. I never got the urge to ultimately do it.