Here are my predictions for the 2019 Jeopardy! All-Star Games!
Methodology & Player Rankings:
For each of the 18 players, I analyzed every single game, regular play and tournament, and counted the number of low-valued and high-valued clues each player got correct (and incorrect) in each game.
(In a regular, College, or Teachers, a low-valued clue is the top three rows on the board. In a Tournament of Champions/supertournament game, it is the top two rows. In a Teen tournament game, it was the top 4 rows. The high-valued clues were the rest). I then took an average for each player over their original run, and for each tournament they participated in. (I did not take stats for the Watson games). The average was then weighted to give 0.5 weight to a player’s original run, and then 1.0 weight to each tournament a player has since participated in. The “low” value is then multiplied by 4.5, and the “high” by 12 (to represent the average value of a low-valued and high-valued clue). That number was then multiplied by 100 and rounded to the nearest 200, so as to project a full game Coryat score for each player.
Here are the calculations for Brad Rutter, for example.
Original 5 games: 16.4 low, 8.8 high
Tournament of Champions: 8.75 low, 12.75 high
Million Dollar Masters: 11 low, 11 high
Ultimate Tournament of Champions: 11.7 low, 11.4 high
Battle of the Decades: 8.4 low, 13.6 high
Weighted Average: 10.7 low, 11.8 high
Projected Coryat: $19,000
Here is how the model ranked all 18 players:
- Brad Rutter $19,000
- Ken Jennings $17,000
- Colby Burnett $14,600
- Julia Collins $13,200
- Buzzy Cohen $12,800
- Austin Rogers $12,200
- Alex Jacob $20,000
- Larissa Kelly $18,800
- Matt Jackson $18,400
- Roger Craig $16,400
- Ben Ingram $15,400
- Alan Lin $14,600
- Seth Wilson $13,400
- David Madden $13,200
- Pam Mueller $12,400
- Monica Thieu $9,800
- Jennifer Giles $9,200
- Leonard Cooper $7,200
Daily Double and Final Jeopardy! performance were then also used for each team to create a “variance” score for each team for the model (as team good on Daily Doubles might not find them, or they could “crash and burn” on those clues, or in Final Jeopardy). Better Final Jeopardy! performance decreased variance, as does conservativity on Daily Doubles.
For each team, I then prorated those scores to what rounds each player might play within the lineup composition rules of the tournament (in that each player may not play the same round in both halves of the match). Adjustments were also made at this point to team scores based on a player’s average gain on Daily Doubles per game and Final Jeopardy %age, as some teams were clearly picked based on Daily Double and Final Jeopardy performance.
(Again, as an example, for Team Buzzy, I projected that Alex would play a Single and a Double Jeopardy, that Buzzy would play a Double and a Final, and that Jennifer would play a Single and a Final.)
I then took the adjusted prorated scores and variance data and ran it through the tournament format one million times to come up with the tournament projections for each team.
Match #1 (Wednesday, February 20 – Friday, February 22):
Team Colby (5th (Pam) & 8th (Alan) selections):
Wins First Match: 9.860% of the time.
Second in First Match: 30.554% of the time.
Third in First Match: 59.586% of the time.
1st: 2.146% of the time.
2nd: 6.024% of the time.
3rd: 11.333% of the time.
4th: 20.085% of the time.
5th: 32.611% of the time.
6th: 27.800% of the time.
Avg. Position: 4.584.
Andy’s Thoughts: Having been paired against Team Buzzy and Team Brad, who were two of the favourites going into the event, Team Colby did not get a good draw, and that’s certainly had a negative effect on their tournament chances here. Also, the model only ranks Pam 9th of the 12 selectable players, which certainly is lower than many others have rated her.
That being said, Colby did pick a team with a track record of out-playing their raw numbers in tournament play, so it is quite possible that this team outperforms its projection. With Teams Buzzy and Brad standing in their way, though, I’d be hard-pressed to see Team Colby finishing higher than 4th, though.
Team Buzzy (1st (Alex) & 12th (Jennifer) selections):
Wins First Match: 33.293% of the time.
Second in First Match: 29.512% of the time.
Third in First Match: 37.196% of the time.
1st: 17.509% of the time.
2nd: 16.759% of the time.
3rd: 19.192% of the time.
4th: 14.130% of the time.
5th: 16.055% of the time.
6th: 16.355% of the time.
Avg. Position: 3.435.
Andy’s Thoughts: I think that Alex Jacob is coming into this tournament with more to prove than anybody else. I’ve previously had the conversation on #JeopardyLivePanel as to who the #3 player of all-time is. If Alex has a good tournament, he may well enter the conversation of “Who is the #1 player of all time”, and I think Alex wants to be a part of that conversation.
Looking back on Jennifer’s Tournament of Champions quarterfinal, she did very well at the bottom of the board against Matt Jackson, and I think that she doesn’t get as much respect as she deserves. I mean, I can see why Austin picked Leonard over Jennifer (I’ll get to that when I talk about Team Austin), but I think that she also feels like she has something to prove after being picked 12th.
This is the only team with two Tournament of Champions winners on it, so there’s no mistaking that this team knows how to win. I’d personally be surprised if this team did not make the final, and at that point, anything can happen.
Team Brad (6th (Larissa) & 7th (David) selections):
Wins First Match: 50.241% of the time.
Second in First Match: 36.291% of the time.
Third in First Match: 13.467% of the time.
1st: 35.649% of the time.
2nd: 28.717% of the time.
3rd: 11.396% of the time.
4th: 15.714% of the time.
5th: 5.914% of the time.
6th: 2.610% of the time.
Avg. Position: 2.354.
Andy’s Thoughts: Well, this team is stacked. Larissa fell to 6th position for Brad, and if she plays anywhere near where the model is rating her, this tournament is Team Brad’s to lose. There are a couple of wild cards, here: David hasn’t played the game in 13 years, which is the longest layoff of anyone in the field. Also, Brad can’t both play Double Jeopardy and Final Jeopardy in Game 2 of a match; he’s going to need to pick one, and that may provide an opening for another team to take this team down.
Match #2 (Monday, February 25 – Wednesday, February 27):
Team Austin (2nd (Roger) & 11th (Leonard) selections):
Wins First Match: 36.677% of the time.
Second in First Match: 15.635% of the time.
Third in First Match: 47.689% of the time.
1st: 14.666% of the time.
2nd: 7.680% of the time.
3rd: 22.823% of the time.
4th: 3.977% of the time.
5th: 11.432% of the time.
6th: 39.422% of the time.
Avg. Position: 4.081.
Andy’s Thoughts: This is not a team built to finish second. It was built for aggressive betting and built in the same way Austin plays the game himself. Yes, the computer thinks he could have picked different people, but those others wouldn’t have fit into Team Austin as well. Will it work? Well, the computer thinks Team Austin is most likely to finish in 6th. But it also thinks they have a reasonable shot at winning – which is what will happen if the aggressive play works out. Regardless of the outcome, there will be excitement when Team Austin is on the stage.
Team Julia (4th (Ben) & 9th (Seth) selections):
Wins First Match: 18.703% of the time.
Second in First Match: 46.870% of the time.
Third in First Match: 34.428% of the time.
1st: 4.111% of the time.
2nd: 11.777% of the time.
3rd: 14.332% of the time.
4th: 27.167% of the time.
5th: 27.971% of the time.
6th: 14.642% of the time.
Avg. Position: 4.07.
Andy’s Thoughts: This team is probably stronger than the computer gives it credit for, as Julia did have the flu during her Tournament of Champions, and Ben is probably the strongest player in the field when it comes to Final Jeopardy. If things break the right way, there’s a very good chance of seeing Team Julia in the final (though they’re probably going to have to win the Wild Card game to do so). And as I said with Team Buzzy, at that point, anything can happen.
Team Ken (3rd (Matt) & 10th (Monica) selections):
Wins First Match: 44.621% of the time.
Second in First Match: 37.495% of the time.
Third in First Match: 17.884% of the time.
1st: 21.507% of the time.
2nd: 23.236% of the time.
3rd: 18.350% of the time.
4th: 15.511% of the time.
5th: 12.058% of the time.
6th: 9.339% of the time.
Avg. Position: 3.014.
Andy’s Thoughts: Much like the Battle of the Decades, it seems like the tournament is most likely going to be “Brad vs Ken vs someone” in the final. Matt Jackson is probably the most Ken-like player in the field and Monica pretty much won her tournament because she’s perfect in Final Jeopardy. Both Ken and Matt are likely stronger on the signaling device than anyone on the other teams in the quarterfinal, and that should see them through to the final easily. But once they get there, both players will likely face past nemeses (Ken in Brad and Matt in Alex). Will they be able to win, or will Ken and Matt see another 2nd place finish?
So, there you have it. What will happen? Tune in February 20 to find out!
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One note: The “Correct” is “net correct answers” (correct answers count +1, incorrect counts -1).