We’re about to start the favorite time of the year for most Jeopardy! fans—it’s Tournament of Champions season!
As in previous years, each player has been given a seed between 1 and 21 based on wins and money won, with the two auto-bids placed between the 4- and 5-time champions. Each player’s odds, representing their overall chance of victory, are listed, as displayed in American odds notation—remember, though, such odds are for entertainment purposes only.
As with last year, the predictions are based on the same model that was born for the 2019 All Star Games, based on how well a player has played on low-value (the top 3 rows) and high-value (bottom 2 rows). Adjustments are then made based on Daily Double gains, Final Jeopardy performance, and even if a player has played another ToC-level player. Variance is still calculated based on overall consistency.
It should also be noted that Adriana’s, Isaac’s, and Drew Basile’s stats include the exhibition game that aired last night on TuneIn, and the prediction model has taken that game into account.
Seeded to the Semi-Finals:
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Adriana Harmeyer (1) (+670) West Lafayette, Indiana  376 correct, 43 incorrect 21/24 on rebound attempts (on 63 rebound opportunities) 37.23% in first on buzzer (360/967) 12/18 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $18,000) 14/17 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $16,094 Adriana’s strength lies in her ability to get Final Jeopardy correct. That may end up working to her advantage, especially if that helps her pick up a win that a lesser player of Clue 61 might not be able to get. |
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Isaac Hirsch (2) (+580) Burbank, California  299 correct, 51 incorrect 16/21 on rebound attempts (on 45 rebound opportunities) 47.60% in first on buzzer (298/626) 14/20 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $9,800) 8/11 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $19,909 Having consistently the best Coryat of the three seeded players, Isaac is currently the favorite to win this Tournament. He did admit in the exhibition game to having worked on his wagering strategy since his initial run, including having to re-learn subtraction, so that should help him as well. |
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Drew Basile (3) (+620) Birmingham, Michigan  198 correct, 41 incorrect 10/15 on rebound attempts (on 45 rebound opportunities) 38.72% in first on buzzer (199/514) 11/16 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $37,400) 4/9 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $16,111 I thought that Drew used the exhibition game very well, and the prediction model gave him a big boost to his chances. Drew’s pair of True Daily Doubles in that game are very useful from a mental perspective, similar to how Bryson DeChambeau often likes to practice from the forward tees in order to mentally prepare for the possibility of shooting a very low number. |
Monday, January 27, 2025:
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Alison Betts (5) (+2100) San Jose, California  133 correct, 27 incorrect 10/11 on rebound attempts (on 35 rebound opportunities) 38.60% in first on buzzer (132/342) 10/11 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $32,000) 4/6 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $13,667 Alison’s strong play on the Daily Doubles in her initial games makes her the favorite in the opening quarterfinal. One thing to keep in mind: Alison initially lost from going big in a Final Jeopardy situation where she had a choice of going big or small—it’ll be interesting to see if she makes a different choice if she’s in a similar situation again. |
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Will Wallace (12) (+4000) Austin, Texas  88 correct, 13 incorrect 6/6 on rebound attempts (on 29 rebound opportunities) 29.12% in first on buzzer (83/285) 5/7 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $5,600) 3/5 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $12,960 Will’s got four wins, but the prediction model doesn’t show any strong points for him compared to the field as a whole; he may need some help to get out of the quarterfinals. |
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Rishabh Wuppalapati (19) (+5300) Vernon Hills, Illinois  73 correct, 14 incorrect 1/4 on rebound attempts (on 15 rebound opportunities) 33.48% in first on buzzer (76/227) 2/3 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $5,000) 3/4 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $12,500 Rishabh’s stats haven’t been helped by his inability thus far to find Daily Doubles; he’s going to need to find some in Double Jeopardy (he was 1-for-8 in finding them initially) in order to have a good chance of advancing. |
The Prediction Model Thinks: Alison Betts: 38.853%; Will Wallace: 31.934%; Rishabh Wuppalapati: 29.213%.
Tuesday, January 28, 2025:
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Amy Hummel (7) (+4700) Milwaukee, Wisconsin  120 correct, 22 incorrect 6/8 on rebound attempts (on 29 rebound opportunities) 35.91% in first on buzzer (121/337) 3/7 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$10,700) 4/6 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $14,700 In having to face off against Grant and David, Amy did not get a great draw. Her being negative five figures on Daily Doubles also hurts her numbers in the prediction model. |
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Grant DeYoung (11) (+2300) Prescott, Arizona  114 correct, 36 incorrect 2/5 on rebound attempts (on 16 rebound opportunities) 46.10% in first on buzzer (130/282) 7/10 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $16,200) 5/5 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $13,440 Grant is great on the buzzer, but also averaged 6.6 unforced errors in his initial games. As ToC clues get harder, Grant may need to reel in his guesses in order to advance in this event. |
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David Erb (14) (+1700) Seattle, Washington  76 correct, 10 incorrect 4/4 on rebound attempts (on 15 rebound opportunities) 31.14% in first on buzzer (71/228) 6/7 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $36,000) 2/4 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $14,550 This game will be a matter of “which David shows up”—he was very strong early in his run, but seemed to run out of gas as he got tired. This being the second game of the day taped should help his chances. |
The Prediction Model Thinks: Amy Hummel: 27.732%; Grant DeYoung: 34.778%; David Erb: 37.490%.
My friends over at Geeks Who Drink have introduced a daily trivia game—Thrice! Existing to make daily clever trivia content accessible to a wide audience, it's a daily challenge that tries to get you to the answer via three separate clues. It has a shareable score functionality to challenge your friends and new questions every day will give you a new daily social ritual. You can find it at thricegame.com.
Are you going on the show and looking for information about how to bet in Final Jeopardy? Check out my Betting Strategy 101 page. If you want to learn how to bet in two-day finals, check out Betting Strategy 102. In case the show uses a tournament with wild cards in the future, there is also a strategy page for betting in tournament quarterfinals.
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Wednesday, January 29, 2025:
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Greg Jolin (4) (+1300) Raymond, New Hampshire  160 correct, 18 incorrect 7/8 on rebound attempts (on 21 rebound opportunities) 46.63% in first on buzzer (159/341) 5/5 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $22,600) 5/6 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $17,967 The prediction model thinks that Greg is the strongest player in the entire field; unfortunately, for his overall tournament chances, he needs to get through Weckiai and Neilesh first. If there is one weakness to Greg’s game, it’s that he struggled to find Daily Doubles in Double Jeopardy; there were a lot of 2s in his selection stats. That might leave openings for opponents to take advantage. |
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Weckiai Rannila (21) (+4700) Albuquerque, New Mexico  87 correct, 18 incorrect 3/4 on rebound attempts (on 14 rebound opportunities) 40.97% in first on buzzer (93/227) 1/4 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$3,000) 2/4 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $13,350 Speaking of Daily Doubles, those clues (both finding and responding correctly to) also proved to be a struggle for Weckiai. Much like Greg, though, she can dominate a game if she gets on a roll. |
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Neilesh Vinjamuri (17) (+2300) Lionville, Pennsylvania  90 correct, 12 incorrect 6/6 on rebound attempts (on 22 rebound opportunities) 37.28% in first on buzzer (85/228) 6/7 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $9,500) 1/4 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $17,950 Neilesh has a very strong average Coryat, one of the higher ones in the field; he got a bit of an unfortunate draw in having to play Greg. He easily could have been favored in some of the other quarterfinals. |
The Prediction Model Thinks: Greg Jolin: 40.265%; Weckiai Rannila: 26.442%; Neilesh Vinjamuri: 33.293%.
Thursday, January 30, 2025:
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Mehal Shah (8) (+2600) Seattle, Washington  154 correct, 18 incorrect 13/13 on rebound attempts (on 31 rebound opportunities) 35.77% in first on buzzer (142/397) 8/10 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $36,200) 1/7 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $16,057 There always seems to be one “fireworks quarterfinal”—and this year’s is this game here. Mehal, fresh out of Champions Wildcard, gets drawn with Ryan Manton and Will Stewart. Mehal’s biggest weakness right now is Final Jeopardy, where he’s 1-for-7, and that number hurts him dearly with the prediction model. |
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Ryan Manton (10) (+3000) Columbus, Ohio  112 correct, 10 incorrect 7/8 on rebound attempts (on 22 rebound opportunities) 35.44% in first on buzzer (101/285) 5/8 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $4,000) 2/5 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $17,640 Ryan has the best average Coryat in this game, and yet he’s predicted third. That’s how strong his two opponents have been on Daily Doubles. |
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Will Stewart (15) (+1700) Nashville, Tennessee  86 correct, 7 incorrect 14/14 on rebound attempts (on 26 rebound opportunities) 30.84% in first on buzzer (70/227) 4/5 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $15,400) 3/4 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $16,450 If you’re wondering how Mehal would be rated if Mehal were normal in Final Jeopardy, it would probably be similar to Will Stewart. Will’s already played against a pair of others in this field in Allison Gross and Grant DeYoung, and he barely lost to Grant. |
The Prediction Model Thinks: Mehal Shah: 32.002%; Ryan Manton: 30.885%; Will Stewart: 37.113%.
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Friday, January 31, 2025:
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Mark Fitzpatrick (6) (+2200) Riverside, Connecticut  129 correct, 26 incorrect 4/5 on rebound attempts (on 24 rebound opportunities) 37.83% in first on buzzer (129/341) 11/15 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $27,800) 2/6 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $17,067 Mark did an excellent job of playing Daily Double Keepaway from his opponents in his initial run and backed that up with a strong Coryat as well. That is more than enough to make him the favorite to advance to the semifinals out of this match. |
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Allison Gross (20) (+3400) Cleveland, Ohio  77 correct, 14 incorrect 6/8 on rebound attempts (on 15 rebound opportunities) 32.29% in first on buzzer (72/223) 5/7 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $4,800) 1/4 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $13,150 Allison faced some head-scratching Final Jeopardy clues during her initial run back in May; her stats were generally good, though, but not quite at Mark’s level. |
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Kevin Laskowski (18) (+6000) Falls Church, Virginia  64 correct, 13 incorrect 6/10 on rebound attempts (on 26 rebound opportunities) 25.88% in first on buzzer (59/228) 2/4 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $0) 3/4 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $12,700 Kevin may need some buzzer luck to go his way in order to advance; his buzzer percentage is lowest in the entire field. |
The Prediction Model Thinks: Mark Fitzpatrick: 37.905%; Allison Gross: 33.474%; Kevin Laskowski: 28.621%.
Monday, February 3, 2025:
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Drew Goins (9) (+1800) Honolulu, Hawaiʻi  178 correct, 22 incorrect 8/10 on rebound attempts (on 31 rebound opportunities) 37.72% in first on buzzer (172/456) 8/10 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $22,000) 4/8 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $17,350 The darling of both Second Chance and Champions Wildcard, Drew got a chance to enter this field as a replacement for Lisa Ann Walter. He’s had some very strong performances over the past few weeks and the prediction model is acknowledging that by making Drew the favorite in this match. |
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Amar Kakirde (13) (+3600) Lake Hiawatha, New Jersey  92 correct, 20 incorrect 8/10 on rebound attempts (on 29 rebound opportunities) 31.23% in first on buzzer (89/285) 4/8 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $7,500) 2/5 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $13,600 A significant overbet in Final Jeopardy in his fifth game prevented him from becoming a 5-time champion. Will he have worked on his betting strategy for the tournament? |
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Lucas Partridge (16) (+5100) Las Vegas, Nevada  85 correct, 15 incorrect 5/6 on rebound attempts (on 18 rebound opportunities) 38.84% in first on buzzer (87/224) 1/3 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$500) 3/4 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $13,650 Lucas is someone who I think will need the Daily Doubles to break in his direction in order to have a good chance of victory in the quarterfinals. |
The Prediction Model Thinks: Drew Goins: 38.997%; Amar Kakirde: 31.960%; Lucas Partridge: 29.043%.
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Here we go again!
Quarterfinal #1: Alison – Despite what her Coryat may suggest, Alison was/is definitely one of the strongest players in this event. Especially when it comes to Daily Doubles – there’s a reason I’ve nicknamed her Miss Daily Double Magnet! Will and Rishabh would probably have been served well in a different quarterfinal, but I don’t think their lower-variance statistics will bode well for either of them. Combine that with the scenario in which Alison originally lost (one of the strongest challenger pairs any champion had to face in Season 40) and it should come as no surprise that I consider Alison the favorite in this match.
Quarterfinal #2: Grant – Speaking of variance, imagine all the chaos that would happen if you put arguably the two-highest variance players in the field against each other! This was actually probably the hardest quarterfinal to predict for me, just because Grant’s strengths tend to cancel out David’s strengths, and vice versa. The reason I went with Grant, other than his excellent record with a stretch of rather difficult (to me, anyway) Final Jeopardy clues, is the fact that he likely knows he has to tone down the incorrect responses to have a shot in this tournament. I also don’t think fatigue should be nearly as much of a problem for Grant as it was for David. And in all honesty? His knowledge base and strategy is strong enough that, should he be successful in dialing back the negs, I could genuinely see Grant making the finals, possibly even winning the entire event.
Quarterfinal #3: Greg – This may come off as bias because of how rare it is to get a ToC qualifier from New Hampshire… and you’re absolutely right! Jokes aside, Greg is probably one of the most well-rounded players in the event – ~$18K average Coryat, extremely strong buzzer skills, near-flawless record with wagering clues, only one major blunder in clue selection in six games… you could seriously call him the favorite for this entire tournament and I would absolutely see where you’re coming from. While Neilesh may have very similar “surface statistics” to Greg, I think a big difference is their attempt numbers – Greg’s average attempts per game (42.17) are SUBSTANTIALLY higher than Neilesh’s 30.00). I could see either of these two winning, but I gotta go with Greg here for the reasons I’ve mentioned.
Quarterfinal #4: Mehal – The thing about Ryan Manton is that, while his buzzer skill and average Coryat is supreme (as is his ability to limit unforced errors), his average attempt number of 30.8 is the third-lowest in the field, only behind Neilesh and Allison Gross (28.5). His big advantage is controlling unforced errors – but he’s been matched up against someone who’s nearly as good at doing that. (Mehal made all of three unforced errors, in total, during Champions Wildcard.) Daily Doubles will definitely be the big factor in this match – and for that reason, I consider Mehal to be a very weak favorite.
Quarterfinal #5: Mark – I’m going to let the difference in statistics between him, Allison G., and Kevin speak for itself here. Of all of the quarterfinals, I think this one is definitely most likely to be a runaway. (Sorry for not having as much to say about this one – I would rather be short and concise than fill my comments with unnecessary drivel. I already do way too much of that in my school essays. 🙂)
Quarterfinal #6: Drew G. – The biggest thing that makes me think so favorably of Drew G.’s chances here is, once again, variance. Amar is probably the most consistent, but lowest-variance, player in the field, with Lucas being not that far behind. Drew G.’s performances vary a lot more, but his strongest games are LEAGUES ahead of either of the other two. Combine that with his average Coryat and buzzer strength and it’s no surprise I consider him the favorite.
I’m looking forward to the return of all these players, but more than anything, I’m looking forward to an excellent tournament – and I know this batch of 21 won’t let me down 🙂
Andy!
Thanks so much for this Preview. It will increase my enjoyment of the Tournament.
MasterDoge!
Thanks for your analysis!!
I’m ready! Starts in less than 10 minutes here. I am biased towards wanting Greg Jolin to win, as I saw him win his 3rd and 4th wins in person.