We’re one week through Second Chance, with two more weeks to play. One of these nine players will get to join Pete Johnston in Champions Wildcard; with those pairings having been released by the show on Friday, we know that whoever makes it through this week will play Dave Bond and Geoff Barnes on Tuesday, January 6.
One thing that we might want to keep in mind: four of the five Final Jeopardy clues last week were nearly universally seen in the fandom as incredibly difficult, with only Friday’s being easier. That might mean that having a runaway entering Final Jeopardy might become absolutely paramount here.
As with Week 1, the Unified Prediction Model has been used to make predictions, with the simulation running 100,000 times.
Monday, December 22, 2025:
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Rachael Gray Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio Original appearance: April 18, 2025  17 correct, 1 incorrect 1/1 on rebound attempts (on 2 rebound opportunities) 26.32% in first on buzzer (15/57) 1/1 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $4,000) 0/1 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $13,400 35.269% to advance to final Those of you who watch the weekend reruns would have seen Rachael’s appearance this weekend; she came very close to defeating Liam Starnes in Liam’s opening game. |
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Guy Branum West Hollywood, California Original appearance: April 4, 2025  18 correct, 2 incorrect 2/3 on rebound attempts (on 6 rebound opportunities) 26.32% in first on buzzer (15/57) 1/1 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $2,400) 1/1 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $9,000 32.503% to advance to final Guy had the misfortune back in April of having to play against a pair of ToCers in Mike Dawson and Bryce Wargin; his 18 correct responses against that competition ensured a return trip to the Alex Trebek Stage. |
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Jasmine Zhou Woodland, California Original appearance: December 17, 2024  17 correct, 1 incorrect 0/1 on rebound attempts (on 2 rebound opportunities) 26.32% in first on buzzer (15/57) 1/1 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $2,400) 1/1 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $14,200 32.228% to advance to final Jasmine played against Ashley Chan in Ashley’s fourth game; interestingly, in a win that sent Ashley to the Tournament of Champions, Jasmine didn’t bet enough in Final Jeopardy—meaning Ashley was able to escape by not making a cover bet herself. Will Jasmine do better than Chris Turner-Neal last week? |
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Tuesday, December 23, 2025:
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Bob Callen Lexington, Kentucky Original appearance: April 21, 2025  20 correct, 1 incorrect 2/2 on rebound attempts (on 4 rebound opportunities) 29.82% in first on buzzer (17/57) 1/1 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $1,200) 0/1 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $15,600 31.547% to advance to final Bob’s original appearance will be airing on next weekend’s rerun. For those who don’t want to wait? Bob was leading Liam Starnes entering Final in Liam’s second game before an incorrect response in Final Jeopardy. |
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Molly Murray New York, New York Original appearance: November 6, 2025  16 correct, 0 incorrect 0/0 on rebound attempts (on 1 rebound opportunity) 22.81% in first on buzzer (13/57) 2/2 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $6,200) 1/1 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $15,800 38.202% to advance to final Molly came very close to unseating Allegra Kuney, but conservative Daily Double betting allowed Allegra to pick up 11 of the last 16 clues in their game. Interestingly, Molly taped Second Chance prior to her episode airing—meaning, her opponents would have had no idea what happened in her game. |
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Michelle Tsai Honolulu, Hawaii Original appearance: May 7, 2025  22 correct, 2 incorrect 2/2 on rebound attempts (on 7 rebound opportunities) 35.09% in first on buzzer (20/57) 0/1 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$4,600) 0/1 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $18,200 30.251% to advance to final Michelle’s missed Daily Double does bring down her numbers slightly per the Unified Prediction Model, but she did have 22 correct, a $18,200 Coryat, and she only lost because Dan Moren chose not to make a cover bet. |
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Wednesday, December 24, 2025:
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Aaron Himmel Long Island, New York Original appearance: November 4, 2025  23 correct, 4 incorrect 2/2 on rebound attempts (on 7 rebound opportunities) 40.35% in first on buzzer (23/57) 0/1 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$3,000) 0/1 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $18,000 29.246% to advance to final Much like Michelle, his missed Daily Double does hurt his numbers slightly in the prediction model, but his 23 correct and $18,000 Coryat will make him a difficult out in this event. |
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Andrew Wang Winnetka, Illinois Original appearance: July 11, 2025  17 correct, 1 incorrect 0/0 on rebound attempts (on 1 rebound opportunity) 26.32% in first on buzzer (15/57) 2/2 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $6,500) 1/1 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $12,800 40.041% to advance to final Andrew came agonizingly close to ending Scott Riccardi’s run. However, Andrew left money on the table on both of his Daily Doubles, only to watch as Scott picked up 14 of the last 22 clues in order to come back from over $10,000 down to lead by just $1,900 entering Final Jeopardy. That performance against a player of Scott’s calibre does make Andrew the favorite to win the week—but there’s so much variance in this game that all 9 players have a reasonable chance of advancing. |
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Melanie Hirsch Silver Spring, Maryland Original appearance: March 26, 2025  23 correct, 4 incorrect 1/1 on rebound attempts (on 4 rebound opportunities) 40.35% in first on buzzer (23/57) 0/2 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$6,000) 0/1 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $18,000 30.713% to advance to final Melanie Hirsch nearly defeated Josh Weikert in Josh’s fourth game, but a difficult Final Jeopardy that day relegated her to Second Chance consideration. |
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I was busy/sleeping all day today and wasn’t able to get anything down until now, so I’m just gonna put hands to keyboard and see what happens!
Match 1: Rachael – As much as I’m cheering for Jasmine in this matchup, “strength of opposition” is generally a really good sign for a Second Chancer; the fact that Rachael managed to hold her own against a 6-day champion in Liam Starnes and a very strong 1-day champion in Steven Hoying gives her a very good shot of even advancing through the week. I’m not counting either Jasmine or Guy out, though!
Match 2: Michelle – I feel relatively confident in saying that this matchup is going to come down to one of Michelle or Molly, and I think it ultimately will come down to which of the two makes fewer strategic errors. I thought, generally, Michelle did a much better job at handling the little things in her initial game (and was just unlucky that Dan Moren beat her to the last two DDs and decided to bet $0 in Final), so I consider her the favorite, but you could go the other way and I’d completely understand where you were coming from.
Match 3: Andrew – It feels kind of odd predicting someone with an initial Coryat of $12,800 to prevail against two players with initial Coryats of $18,000 each, but like with match 1, this ultimately comes down to strength of schedule as well. Andrew putting up the numbers he did against an eventual 16-day champion (who achieved eight of his last nine wins via runaway) and a challenger that was strong enough to where I wouldn’t have argued at all if she returned as well makes me really like his chances, and I think I agree with the prediction model that he’s probably the favorite to win out the week.
I have a feeling this week is gonna be a great week of Jeopardy 🙂
MasterDoge!
Hello!! First time I read your comments I thought it said you were ‘busy sleeping all day today’ [missed the “/”]!!!
Thanks as always for your useful analysis. It will increase my enjoyment of the games this week.
This is my first comment after completing the required registration. I hope it posts correctly.