We have cut our initial field of 18 players in the Jeopardy! Invitational Tournament down to 9; here is a preview of the semifinals, taking place from February 13–17. As always, the predictions have been made from the Unified Prediction Model simulator being run 100,000 times.
Friday, February 13, 2026:
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Roger Craig Johnstown, Pennsylvania  616 correct, 125 incorrect 38/47 on rebound attempts (on 103 rebound opportunities) 40.56% in first on buzzer (625/1541) 37/44 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $161,000) 14/25 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $15,662 44.141% to advance to final |
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Jen Giles Longmont, Colorado  120 correct, 19 incorrect 5/7 on rebound attempts (on 32 rebound opportunities) 29.75% in first on buzzer (119/400) 3/5 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $2,400) 4/8 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $11,900 25.376% to advance to final |
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Drew Basile Birmingham, Michigan  223 correct, 50 incorrect 12/18 on rebound attempts (on 59 rebound opportunities) 36.15% in first on buzzer (227/628) 11/17 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $36,400) 6/11 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $14,218 30.483% to advance to final |
Overall Thoughts: I can’t exactly say I expected to see Roger draw a pair of wild cards in this semifinal, but in all truthfulness, the matchups haven’t really moved the needle that much overall in terms of anyone’s overall win percentage. Besides, with the quarterfinals having played as tough as they have, it wouldn’t surprise me to see more conservative play in the semis.
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Monday, February 16, 2026:
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Matt Amodio New York, New York  1815 correct, 221 incorrect 81/96 on rebound attempts (on 230 rebound opportunities) 44.70% in first on buzzer (1750/3915) 102/121 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $389,200) 47/68 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $20,887 40.018% to advance to final |
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Andrew He Concord, California  577 correct, 81 incorrect 38/44 on rebound attempts (on 104 rebound opportunities) 31.64% in first on buzzer (541/1710) 32/43 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $139,000) 16/30 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $14,987 39.110% to advance to final |
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Alison Betts San Jose, California  163 correct, 35 incorrect 11/14 on rebound attempts (on 51 rebound opportunities) 35.53% in first on buzzer (162/456) 11/14 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $28,000) 4/8 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $12,475 20.872% to advance to final |
Overall Thoughts: Andrew He definitely had the fourth-best performance of the quarterfinals; I just thought he’d still have been matched away from Matt Amodio and Roger Craig. The holiday matchup looks to be an absolute doozy on paper, though—with the added wrinkle of Alison having gone viral this week for her own advancement out of the quarterfinals. I could see just about anything happening—including Alison coming up through the middle for the second time in less than a week.
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Tuesday, February 17, 2026:
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Long Nguyen Las Vegas, Nevada  125 correct, 19 incorrect 7/10 on rebound attempts (on 24 rebound opportunities) 34.80% in first on buzzer (119/342) 8/9 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $20,000) 5/6 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $14,600 38.288% to advance to final |
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Karen Farrell Chesapeake, Virginia  261 correct, 32 incorrect 17/22 on rebound attempts (on 58 rebound opportunities) 37.63% in first on buzzer (245/651) 8/14 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $5,900) 10/12 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $15,883 30.371% to advance to final |
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Drew Goins Washington, D.C.  238 correct, 34 incorrect 10/13 on rebound attempts (on 45 rebound opportunities) 37.16% in first on buzzer (233/627) 11/15 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $23,600) 5/11 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $16,473 31.341% to advance to final |
Overall Thoughts: At first glance, this looks to be a curious matchup. However, the more I think about it, the more I like it. Long is rewarded for an extremely strong quarterfinal performance by getting to avoid all of Matt, Andrew, and Roger, while Karen proved how strong she can be with how well she played in Double Jeopardy against Matt Amodio. Meanwhile, Drew just seems to find ways to take victories even when it seems to be unlikely. While the prediction model does favor Long, especially after what happened in the quarters, this is one of those matchups where anything can happen.
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Andy! Thanks for this Preview. It will increase my enjoyment of this phase of the Tournament.
Before I even get started, to clarify, all of these predictions were made last night; I did not make the first prediction with knowledge about what would happen in the game. (Andy can attest.) I was debating posting these at all as a result, but I know people like reading these, so I figured the least I can do is oblige. 🙂
Semifinal #1: Roger – This is the only matchup of the three that I feel even remotely comfortable predicting, and I think most of the stats point heavily to Roger. He dominated most of the way through his quarterfinal, while Jen needed Final Jeopardy and Drew B. needed some divine intervention to make it through as a wildcard. It’ll definitely be interesting to see whether or not Roger plays with the aggressiveness that I (and everyone else) am used to seeing from him now that wildcards are out of play; if he does and it ends up backfiring, though, both players are definitely capable of taking advantage of that and qualifying for the finals.
Semifinal #2: Matt – If I had a nickel for every time in the last few years I had to predict a match between two buzzsaws named Andrew and Matt, I’d have two nickels… all jokes aside, I don’t think there’s many ways this match could be closer. What’s making me go with Matt, outside of his generally better track record in Final Jeopardy (quarterfinal results notwithstanding), is the fact that he seems to thrive best under intense pressure (at least, that’s how it’s appeared in many of his crucial victories following the 2022 ToC). The only other times Andrew and Matt have played together are against past Masters – Amy Schneider, James Holzhauer twice, and Mattea Roach twice – so it’ll also be quite interesting to see them lock horns for the first time in a while!
Semifinal #3: Long – This one is even closer than the last one, and considering how good these three players are, it’ll absolutely come down to who finds the last two Daily Doubles first. Like I said for both Roger and Matt, now that wildcards are no longer in play, I fully expect Long to shift back into the typically super-aggressive playstyle that worked so beautifully for him in the S40 postseason, and that combined with his excellent knowledge base makes me consider him an incredibly slim favorite. Drew G. certainly isn’t a stranger to playing against opponents of a very strong quizzing caliber, though, and I have a feeling the more “struggling” (for lack of a better word) performance in his quarterfinal was a fluke.
I’ve thoroughly enjoyed this postseason, and I know that the semifinals and finals of this tournament will do a great job finishing it off!
MasterDoge!
Thanks so much!!