It’s postseason time on Jeopardy! Things kick off on Monday with our first week of Second Chance play; one of these nine players will be advancing to Champions Wildcard beginning on January 13.
Monday, December 30, 2024
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Alex Michev Richmond, Virginia  18 correct, 3 incorrect 1/1 on rebound attempts (on 4 rebound opportunities) 33.33% in first on buzzer (19/57) 0/0 on Daily Doubles 0/1 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $16,000 Alex Michev put up an all-Coryat $16,000 going into Final Jeopardy on the day that Maddie Carwile defeated David Erb; getting Final Jeopardy incorrect cost Alex the victory. |
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Will Yancey Banquete, Texas  21 correct, 5 incorrect 3/3 on rebound attempts (on 4 rebound opportunities) 35.09% in first on buzzer (20/57) 1/2 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$400) 0/1 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $14,400 Will’s score was into five figures after the opening round on September 17; unfortunately, he missed both a Daily Double and Final Jeopardy, but that opening round performance was certainly enough to warrant a second chance on the show. |
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Tekla Sauter Chicago, Illinois  14 correct, 0 incorrect 1/1 on rebound attempts (on 5 rebound opportunities) 19.30% in first on buzzer (11/57) 1/1 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $3,000) 1/1 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $9,600 Tekla was the third player in the June 19 game where Drew Basile unseated Adriana Harmeyer; a conservative Daily Double bet was actually the reason why Tekla wasn’t the giant killer herself! |
Overall Thoughts: The prediction model gives Tekla a 35.7% chance of winning, Alex a 34.3% chance, and Will a 30.0% chance.
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Are you going on the show and looking for information about how to bet in Final Jeopardy? Check out my Betting Strategy 101 page. If you want to learn how to bet in two-day finals, check out Betting Strategy 102. In case the show uses a tournament with wild cards in the future, there is also a strategy page for betting in tournament quarterfinals.
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Tuesday, December 31, 2024
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Scott Tcheng San Francisco, California  19 correct, 2 incorrect 0/1 on rebound attempts (on 2 rebound opportunities) 33.33% in first on buzzer (19/57) 0/0 on Daily Doubles 1/1 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $11,800 Scott was just $600 behind Ryan Manton going into Final Jeopardy in Ryan’s 3rd game on October 2. |
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Kaitlin Tarr Denver, Colorado  21 correct, 4 incorrect 0/0 on rebound attempts (on 1 rebound opportunity) 38.60% in first on buzzer (22/57) 1/2 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$1,000) 0/1 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $15,000 Kaitlin led then-12-day champion Adriana Harmeyer going into Final Jeopardy on June 14, but an incorrect response prevented her from becoming a giant killer. |
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Mike Ferguson Edmond, Oklahoma  17 correct, 0 incorrect 0/0 on rebound attempts (on 7 rebound opportunities) 26.32% in first on buzzer (15/57) 1/1 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $6,000) 1/1 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $13,000 In Isaac Hirsch’s 8th game on July 12, Mike put up 16 correct and $17,000 going into Final Jeopardy. |
Overall Thoughts: The prediction model puts Mike up as a favorite in this one, giving him a 41.2% chance of winning, compared with Kaitlin at 30.9% and Scott at 27.9%.
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Wednesday, January 1, 2025
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Colleen Matthews Hillsboro, Oregon  17 correct, 3 incorrect 1/1 on rebound attempts (on 2 rebound opportunities) 28.07% in first on buzzer (16/57) 0/2 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$4,000) 1/1 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $14,600 Colleen was another player who came incredibly close to beating Adriana Harmeyer, nearly doing so on June 18. |
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Gino Montoya Albuquerque, New Mexico  20 correct, 2 incorrect 2/3 on rebound attempts (on 5 rebound opportunities) 31.58% in first on buzzer (18/57) 0/0 on Daily Doubles 0/1 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $17,400 Gino would have defeated Mark Fitzpatrick on October 8 had it not been for an all-in Final Jeopardy bet; we’ll see how Second Chance changes Gino’s strategy. |
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Josh Moss Boston, Massachusetts  19 correct, 4 incorrect 1/2 on rebound attempts (on 3 rebound opportunities) 31.58% in first on buzzer (18/57) 1/2 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$1,200) 0/1 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $14,600 Josh put up a $14,600 Coryat against Adriana Harmeyer in Adriana’s 3rd game on May 31. |
Overall Thoughts: The prediction model has Gino as a slight favorite in this one. Gino has a 35.9% chance of winning, compared with 35.1% for Josh and 29.0% for Colleen.
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Been a while since I was able to make predictions for a tournament!
Semifinal #1: Will – I know there’s the factor of “third player in a matchup against two extremely strong players” for Tekla, but I feel confident in saying Alex and Will are likely the two favorites in this match. What I’m less confident about is which one is the favorite. The thing is – Alex was generally more consistent in his play, but when Will was hot, Will was HOT. That, coupled with his much higher attempt numbers and buzzer success, makes me consider Will to be a slight favorite.
Semifinal #2: Kaitlin – While I believe you could consider either of her and Mike the favorite and you’d have a reasonable argument in either case, Kaitlin’s slightly stronger numbers against Adriana than Mike’s against Isaac gives me the feeling that Kaitlin might be a very weak favorite. (Also, unrelated to the game – congratulations to her on her profession upgrade! 🙂)
Semifinal #3: Gino – Wagering error aside, Gino’s strength on the more difficult Double Jeopardy material in his game makes me really like his chances. All three of these players are very strong (as is the case for all three of these matches), but I would be not at all surprised to see Gino take this one.
I cannot wait to see what happens over the next two weeks 🙂
Predicted Finalists:
SF1: Alex Michev
SF2: Kaitlin Tarr
SF3: Gino Montoya
Predicted Overall Winner:
Gino Montoya
Predicted Finalists:
SF1: Will Yancey
SF2: Scott Tcheng
SF3: Colleen Matthews
Predicted Overall Winner:
Scott Tcheng (I have seen him a lot on Reddit which can occasionally indicate success)
If I may, let me leave here a recommendation for tomorrow’s Pregame Thoughts, that you reiterate the updated interpretation of Site Comment Policy Rule 5, promulgated on March 20 (not actually a “new rule” as stated therein, as its text was never added to the SCP):
Andy! Thanks for this preview. It is useful and informative.