We have made our way from 59 players down to 21 as we are now at the Tournament of Champions. One of these players will end up with a $250,000 first prize by the time we reach the first couple of weeks of February.
As is per usual, 100,000 simulations have been run using data from the Unified Prediction Model to create the predictions.
Monday, January 19, 2026:
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Liam Starnes Columbus, Ohio  144 correct, 22 incorrect 8/10 on rebound attempts (on 34 rebound opportunities) 34.09% in first on buzzer (136/399) 10/13 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $41,190) 3/7 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $15,600 Chance to make semifinals: 34.410% 6-game champion Liam Starnes has not been given the best of draws in Tom and Aaron, but he does have recent quiz bowl experience, which should serve him well on the more difficult ToC material. |
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Tom Devlin Washington, D.C.  113 correct, 11 incorrect 8/8 on rebound attempts (on 17 rebound opportunities) 46.49% in first on buzzer (106/228) 5/6 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $15,600) 2/4 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $21,700 Chance to make semifinals: 38.445% The last two Tournament of Champions winners only had 3 regular season wins, and the very strong Tom Devlin does feel like he’s the likeliest to make that three in a row. He’ll have to get through the quarterfinals to start with, and that’s no easy task. |
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Aaron Levine Seattle, Washington  77 correct, 13 incorrect 3/3 on rebound attempts (on 24 rebound opportunities) 32.46% in first on buzzer (74/228) 6/9 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $12,700) 2/4 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $14,050 Chance to make semifinals: 27.145% History is also on Aaron’s side—I certainly remember past ToCs where the opening quarterfinal was taken in upset fashion by the bottom seed in the event. There’s lots of variance in this game and I would not be surprised in the slightest to see Aaron take victory. |
Tuesday, January 20, 2026:
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Andrew Hayes Tupelo, Mississippi  158 correct, 22 incorrect 9/10 on rebound attempts (on 28 rebound opportunities) 37.84% in first on buzzer (151/399) 7/12 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $14,200) 5/7 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $17,514 Chance to make semifinals: 32.809% I mentioned in my pre-taping preview that Andrew did catch some lucky breaks, but you have to be a good enough player to take advantage of those. Andrew will be a tough out in this event. |
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Brendan Liaw Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada  95 correct, 19 incorrect 3/5 on rebound attempts (on 15 rebound opportunities) 44.74% in first on buzzer (102/228) 2/4 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$6,400) 1/3 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $17,750 Chance to make semifinals: 31.827% Brendan’s overall numbers in the prediction model weren’t helped by his missed Daily Double in the last game; he absolutely has the skill to make a deep run in this event. For those who don’t get the reference, the “away-from-home son” in his occupation is a reference to him being a “stay-at-home son” in his original run. |
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Allegra Kuney New Brunswick, New Jersey  121 correct, 15 incorrect 4/5 on rebound attempts (on 14 rebound opportunities) 41.05% in first on buzzer (117/285) 7/9 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $15,100) 4/5 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $18,560 Chance to make semifinals: 35.364% Allegra very well could have won more than 4 games had she not run into superchamp Harrison Whitaker. That in and of itself makes her the favorite in this quarterfinal. |
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Wednesday, January 21, 2026:
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Bryce Wargin Kansas City, Missouri  95 correct, 20 incorrect 7/9 on rebound attempts (on 27 rebound opportunities) 32.63% in first on buzzer (93/285) 6/8 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $13,600) 3/5 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $12,440 Chance to make semifinals: 30.411% His loss to Mike Dawson did hurt his numbers a little bit, but I expect Bryce to be very competitive in this quarterfinal. |
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Cameron Berry Brighton, Massachusetts  126 correct, 21 incorrect 7/11 on rebound attempts (on 22 rebound opportunities) 36.55% in first on buzzer (125/342) 4/5 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $15,800) 2/6 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $14,867 Chance to make semifinals: 33.537% Cameron took the last spot in the Tournament of Champions after winning Champions Wildcard, and I expect he’ll be a part of an exciting Tournament of Champions quarterfinal here. |
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Ben Ganger Goshen, Indiana  151 correct, 29 incorrect 15/18 on rebound attempts (on 36 rebound opportunities) 42.40% in first on buzzer (145/342) 9/11 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $23,200) 3/6 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $15,333 Chance to make semifinals: 36.052% Ben’s a slight favorite to take victory in the quarterfinals, but absolutely any of these three players could take victory in this one. |
Thursday, January 22, 2026:
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Ashley Chan Lewisville, Texas  101 correct, 16 incorrect 1/2 on rebound attempts (on 12 rebound opportunities) 36.14% in first on buzzer (103/285) 5/7 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $8,500) 2/5 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $13,640 Chance to make semifinals: 30.856% While she did struggle at the end of her run, Ashley does have 4 wins—and she is more than capable of taking a fifth victory here in this ToC quarterfinal. |
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W. Kamau Bell Oakland, California  90 correct, 13 incorrect 3/4 on rebound attempts (on 15 rebound opportunities) 35.71% in first on buzzer (90/252) 5/6 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $11,305) 1/3 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $15,300 Chance to make semifinals: 27.865% W. Kamau Bell is very smart and it absolutely would not surprise me to see him have a similar result to Ike Barinholtz two years ago. |
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Alex DeFrank Brooklyn, New York  125 correct, 24 incorrect 4/7 on rebound attempts (on 18 rebound opportunities) 45.96% in first on buzzer (131/285) 5/6 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $21,800) 3/5 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $17,280 Chance to make semifinals: 41.279% Alex had some very impressive performances and also some very ordinary ones. As I said in the pre-taping preview, Alex’s tournament hopes revolve around “which Alex do we get here?” |
Friday, January 23, 2026:
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Steven Olson Princeton, Illinois  128 correct, 24 incorrect 3/6 on rebound attempts (on 15 rebound opportunities) 45.74% in first on buzzer (129/282) 10/12 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $17,200) 3/5 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $16,880 Chance to make semifinals: 36.969% Steven ended the run of Paolo Pasco, who’s seeded here into the semifinals. I’m sure Steven would love to see a rematch in the final. |
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Josh Weikert Collegeville, Pennsylvania  161 correct, 23 incorrect 7/8 on rebound attempts (on 29 rebound opportunities) 40.10% in first on buzzer (160/399) 7/9 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $12,200) 2/7 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $17,914 Chance to make semifinals: 28.131% The Unified Prediction Model thinks Josh may have gotten a very difficult draw here in Steven and Matt. You don’t win 6 games unless you’re a very strong player, though. |
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Matt Massie South Charleston, West Virginia  97 correct, 20 incorrect 5/6 on rebound attempts (on 17 rebound opportunities) 44.44% in first on buzzer (100/225) 5/7 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $17,200) 3/4 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $17,700 Chance to make semifinals: 34.900% Matt picked up a couple of big victories early in his run before losing stamina. That may end up helping his chances in this Tournament, where he doesn’t have to play a bunch of games back-to-back until the finals. |
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Monday, January 26, 2026:
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Lisa Ann Walter Washington, D.C.  85 correct, 12 incorrect 8/10 on rebound attempts (on 22 rebound opportunities) 30.16% in first on buzzer (76/252) 6/8 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $5,900) 3/3 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $15,167 Chance to make semifinals: 28.575% It’s been a couple of years since Lisa Ann won on the Alex Trebek Stage; she finally gets to make her ToC appearance, and she has just as much of a chance of anyone to move on. |
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Mike Dawson Portland, Oregon  80 correct, 11 incorrect 4/5 on rebound attempts (on 21 rebound opportunities) 35.09% in first on buzzer (80/228) 1/2 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$3,400) 2/4 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $15,050 Chance to make semifinals: 34.559% Much like Matt Massie, Mike’s numbers dropped the more he was on stage. That may end up helping him in the “one game on the tape day” quarterfinal. |
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TJ Fisher San Francisco, California  150 correct, 30 incorrect 4/7 on rebound attempts (on 17 rebound opportunities) 45.03% in first on buzzer (154/342) 10/13 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $15,800) 1/6 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $18,133 Chance to make semifinals: 36.866% TJ would often dominate on the low-value clues. That usually hasn’t translated as well over to the ToC stage, where things are tougher. He’s also 1-for-6 in Final Jeopardy, which might also end up making for an interesting endgame. |
Byes to the Semifinals:
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Scott Riccardi Somerville, New Jersey  464 correct, 32 incorrect 27/28 on rebound attempts (on 72 rebound opportunities) 43.45% in first on buzzer (421/969) 23/30 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $58,000) 12/17 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $23,047 Chance to make finals: 40.276% Both by his bye into the semifinals and the fact he has the strongest stats of anybody in the field, Scott is the outright favorite to take victory. On the flip side, Scott being the top seed will put a target on his back, especially in the semifinals. |
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Laura Faddah Memphis, Tennessee  148 correct, 30 incorrect 13/13 on rebound attempts (on 41 rebound opportunities) 29.60% in first on buzzer (148/500) 5/8 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $3,400) 3/9 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $12,400 Chance to make finals: 25.894% Laura is an 8-time champion. While I suspect every winning quarterfinalist will end up hoping they get drawn against Laura in the semis, I would say those players are hoping at their peril. Players don’t win 8 times without having some sort of skill, and we’re going to see that skill in the ToC. |
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Paolo Pasco San Diego, California  200 correct, 12 incorrect 10/10 on rebound attempts (on 30 rebound opportunities) 39.91% in first on buzzer (182/456) 10/12 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $25,600) 6/8 in Final Jeopardy Average Coryat: $20,250 Chance to make finals: 37.712% Paolo is second favorite to take the $250,000 at this point; his skill with crosswords should play to his advantage at the ToC, especially in more difficult wordplay categories. |
It should be noted that my local television schedule guide shows Game 1 of the Finals on Monday, February 2, which means that I would venture that there will be an exhibition game that takes place between Scott, Laura, and Paolo airing on Tuesday, January 27 (According to the schedule released on Hulu, this exhibition game will be taking place on Friday, January 30.)
Finals length chances:
3 games: 11.988%
4 games: 23.205%
5 games: 30.082%
6 games: 23.588%
7 games: 11.137%
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alright time for predictions:
Game 1: Tom
Game 2: Allegra
Game 3: not even confident but going with Cameron
Game 4: Alex
Game 5: Steven
Game 6: Mike
This is what we’ve all been waiting for! Without further ado…
Quarterfinal #1: Tom – I feel very confident in saying that the only reason his win chances are as low as they are is because he also has to get through a quarterfinal as opposed to just a semifinal and the finals. Tom is an absolutely terrifying player (especially considering he took down an equally strong player, CWC result aside, in Dargan Ware) and I would not at all be surprised to see him make a run to the finals, or even win the entire thing. Opening-day jitters are definitely a thing, though – which could make this match very interesting!
Quarterfinal #2: Allegra – This match is going to be the fireworks match of the quarterfinals, I have a feeling. Allegra showed many moments of brilliance throughout her four wins and even in her loss to Harrison Whitaker, so I consider her the favorite, but she’s not going to have an easy time by any means – both Andrew and Brendan are incredibly strong players and I could also see each of them making deep runs in the tournament.
Quarterfinal #3: Cameron – This one is a bit of an odd match to predict, mostly because of the presence of Ben. While he clearly did something very right to win his five games in the fashion he won them, it’s tough to tell how well his regular-season gameplay will hold up. Cameron, while also being an incredibly strong player, is also (obviously) the most recent entry into the field, and I have a feeling his momentum from Champions Wildcard will continue; I do think Ben and Bryce will certainly be competitive, but it’ll take some luck for them to come out on top.
Quarterfinal #4: Alex – This was also quite tough. When Alex is on his game, he absolutely dominates, but his volatility when it comes to incorrect responses will be the make-or-break factor here. WWORDuke put it the best way after Alex’s second game, where he had 84% buzzer accuracy but just 79% response accuracy – “Dude basically got whatever he wanted, including a gun aimed right at his foot.” If that Alex or the Alex that struggled significantly against Cameron is the one to appear in this game, Ashley and Kamau are definitely ready to pounce on any mistakes that he happens to make; if the dominant game #4 Alex is the one to appear, though, this is going to be a very frustrating quarterfinal for the other two – and because I think that Alex is more likely to show up, I have him as the favorite for this match.
Quarterfinal #5: Steven – Much like the second quarterfinal, this is going to be an incredibly tight three-way matchup, albeit slightly likelier to be peppered with incorrect responses. Thus, my method for selecting this one is quite simple – gut instinct. While Steven has some weaknesses in his game (namely, his accuracy could use some work), he’s also shown incredible buzzer skills throughout his five games, and that’s helped him greatly when it comes to finding Daily Doubles (his average of 2.4 a game is the highest of anyone in the field). If he has his buzzer mojo and is able to get to the Daily Doubles before Josh and Matt do, he should have very minimal difficulty advancing.
Quarterfinal #6: TJ – I know and understand why the prediction model doesn’t rate TJ nearly as high as I probably would, but I still have a feeling he’ll come out on top. Much like H-Bomb in CWC and many other players in this field, TJ was at his most dominant in his first few games; while his “in first on buzzer” stat is amongst the highest in the field, it still dropped significantly from the Holzhauerian numbers he was putting up in his first two games (32 times in first in game #1 and 34 in game #2, respectively). If the TJ that shows up is the fresh one from his first two games, he’s likely going to be buzzing up a storm all game long and have zero difficulty advancing; if it’s not, though, this match could get interesting!
As for Scott, Laura, and Paolo… throughout my time watching this show, so many things have happened exactly as I have expected them to not happen that I’m definitely best off not making any major predictions. All I’ll say is that these players went on the runs they did for a reason, but at the same time, the sheer variance present in a game of Jeopardy in 2026 is high enough that there could be any combination of placements, advancements, and eliminations and I wouldn’t be majorly surprised at a single one.
I can’t wait!!!!
My predictions are as follows
Game 1: Tom- Although Liam is great, I think Tom is the one to beat in this tournament. If there’s one person who can pull an upset over a superchamp like Scott, it’s Tom IMO.
Game 2: Allegra- Allegra could have easily won more than 4 games had it not been for Harrison. She certainly had the chops. Andrew did win 6 games though, and although he had a couple of lucky breaks, you don’t win 6 games unless you are a good player.
Game 3: Cameron- This is a toss up between Cameron and Ben because if we see the Ben that put up more than 20 correct responses in the Jeopardy round alone, things are not going to be easy for Cameron. I’m giving him the slight edge because he has more recent buzzer experience with CWT.
Game 4: Alex- Just like Allegra, Alex could have easily won more than 4 games had he not run into Cameron. He is another person that I can see making it to the finals.
Game 5: Steven- This is another toss up between Steven and Matt because they both had very strong statistics in their respective runs. Josh, however, is not to be slept on: another 6 game champion who could easily pull off another victory.
Game 6: TJ- This is another case where it is going to depend on what side of TJ we see. If we see the over 50% in first on buzzer TJ, he could pull this off. If not, then Mike or even Lisa Ann could pull off a victory.
As for Scott, Laura, and Paolo, I’m not going to make any predictions just yet, even though I have Paolo as a slight favorite, but Laura also didn’t win 8 games for nothing. She knows how to play the game and that is really what matters on Jeopardy, not the overall winnings.
I’m really excited!!
Can’t wait! Starts in just over an hour here in the Los Angeles market! 🙂